Probable Causation

Gaurav Khanna talks about how incentives to engage in formal employment affect criminal behavior in Colombia. “Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-de...

Morgan Williams Jr. talks about the race-specific effects of policing. "Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily Weisburst, and Morgan Williams, Jr. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE...

David Eil talks with Hannah Walker about her book, "Mobilized by Injustice: Criminal Justice Contact, Political Participation, and Race." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work!

Carolina Arteaga talks about how parental incarceration affects kids' education outcomes. “Parental Incarceration and Children’s Educational Attainment” by Carolina Arteaga. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work ! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN T...

Heyu Xiong talks about on how legalizing marijuana affects those with histories of selling marijuana illegally. “Displacement in the Criminal Labor Market: Evidence from Drug Legalizations” by Heyu Xiong. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work ! ***...

David Eil talks with Gregg Caruso about his book, "Rejecting Retributivism: Free Will, Punishment, and Criminal Justice." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work!

Katherine Eriksson talks about how access to education affected incarceration in the early 20th century. "Education and Incarceration in the Jim Crow South: Evidence from Rosenwald Schools" by Katherine Eriksson. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our wo...

Amanda Agan, Anna Harvey, and host Jennifer Doleac talk about the consequences of prosecuting defendants for nonviolent misdemeanor offenses. "Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting...

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019. "Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribu...

Manisha Shah talks about the effects of criminalizing sex work. This episode was first posted in June 2019. “Crimes against Morality: Unintended Consequences of Criminalizing Sex Work” by Lisa Cameron, Jennifer Muz, and Manisha Shah. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you...

Desmond Ang talks about how police violence affects local students' academic achievement and well-being. "The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students" by Desmond Ang. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! ***   OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS...

Michael Makowsky talks about how increasing hourly wages, through the minimum wage and EITC, affects recidivism. "The Minimum Wage, EITC, and Criminal Recidivism" by Amanda Agan and Michael Makowsky. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! ***   OT...

Cody Tuttle talks about how banning people with criminal records from receiving SNAP benefits affects recidivism. "Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism" by Cody Tuttle. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE...

Greg Midgette talks about the effects of 24/7 Sobriety — a program for defendants with alcohol-related offenses, based on swift-certain-fair principles. “Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual‐Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety” by Beau Kilmer and Greg Midgette. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax...

David Eil talks with Erin Kelly about her book, "The Limits of Blame: Rethinking Punishment and Responsibility." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER ITEMS WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Judge statement in sentencing of Larry Nasser

Anna Harvey talks about how court-ordered affirmative action in police departments affected racial disparities in crime victimization. “Reducing Racial Disparities in Crime Victimization: Evidence from Employment Discrimination Litigation” by Anna Harvey and Taylor Mattia. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a...

Conrad Miller talks about how local racial composition affects punishment severity in the criminal justice system. "Racial Divisions and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Southern State Courts" by Benjamin Feigenberg and Conrad Miller. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you...

David Eil talks with Sarah Brayne about her book, "Predict and Surveil: Data, Discretion, and the Future of Policing." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work!

Arianna Ornaghi talks about how local news coverage of crime affects policing. "Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States" by Nicola Mastrorocco and Arianna Ornaghi. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OT...

Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers. "More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos, Siddharth Mandava, Cecily Wallman-Stokes, and...

Stephen Billings talks about the long-term effects of early interventions for children exposed to lead. This episode was first posted in November 2019. "Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead" by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Lead Wars: The politics of science and the fate of America's children" by Geral...

Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies. This episode was first posted in July 2019. RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment" by Abigail Wozniak. "Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks" by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson "Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A F...

David Eil talks with David Skarbek about his book, "The Puzzle of Prison Order: Why Life Behind Bars Varies Around the World." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work!

Andrea Velásquez talks about how exposure to violent crime affects risk aversion. "Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War" by Ryan Brown, Verónica Montalva, Duncan Thomas, and Andrea Velásquez. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Violence, Psychological Trauma, and Risk Attitudes: Evidence from Victims of Violence in Colombia” by Andrés Moya. “Violence...

Matthew Lindquist talks about the health effects of prison. "The Health Effects of Prison" by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Dose-Response of Time Served in Prison on Mortality: New York State, 1989-2003” by Evelyn Patterson. "The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver. “The Effect of Pub...