Probable Causation

Bryan Stuart talks about how social connectedness within cities affects local crime rates. “The Effect of Social Connectedness on Crime: Evidence from the Great Migration” by Bryan Stuart and Evan Taylor. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** O...

Danila Serra talks about the effects of a new ethics training program for police officers in Ghana. “Proud to Belong: The Impact of Ethics Training on Police in Ghana” by Donna Harris, Oana Borcan, Danila Serra, Henry Telli, Bruno Schettini, and Stefan Dercon. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible...

Manasi Deshpande talks about how access to Supplementary Security Income (SSI) benefits affects criminal behavior. “Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI” by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution...

David Eil talks with Chris Blattman about his book, " Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace ." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work!  

Zoë Cullen talks about how to incentivize employers to hire workers with criminal records. “Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record” by Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie, and Mitchell Hoffman. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER...

Pedro Souza talks about the effects of police body-worn cameras in Brazil. “De-escalation Technology: The Impact of Body-worn Cameras on Citizen-police Interactions” by Daniel AC Barbosa, Thiemo Fetzer, Caterina Soto and Pedro CL Souza *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you...

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020. "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.) Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preve...

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020. "How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deducti...

Molly Schnell talks about how exposure to school shootings affects students. “Trauma at School: The Impacts of Shootings on Students’ Human Capital and Economic Outcomes” by Marika Cabral, Bokyung Kim, Maya Rossin-Slater, Molly Schnell, and Hannes Schwandt *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible con...

David Eil talks with Sarah Lageson about her book, " Digital Punishment: Privacy, Stigma, and the Harms of Data-Driven Criminal Justice ." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work!  

Andrew Barr talks about how access to nutritional assistance in early childhood affects later criminal behavior. “Fighting Crime in the Cradle: The Effects of Early Childhood Access to Nutritional Assistance” by Andrew Barr and Alexander A. Smith *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contributio...

David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care. “Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting o...

Aaron Chalfin talks about the professional motivations of police officers. “The Professional Motivations of Police Officers” by Aaron Chalfin and Felipe Goncalves. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISOD...

Felipe Goncalves talks about how reductions in police enforcement activity affect crime. “Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Goncalves, and Emily Weisburst. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for suppo...

Jason Baron talks about how foster care placement affects future criminal justice contact. “Is There a Foster Care-To-Prison Pipeline? Evidence from Quasi-Random Investigator Assignment” by E. Jason Baron and Max Gross. [Working paper available by request from the authors.] *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making...

Elizabeth Luh talks about detecting racial bias in police stops. “Not so Black and White: Uncovering Racial Bias from Systematically Misreported Trooper Reports” by Elizabeth Luh. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUS...

Yotam Shem-Tov talks about how a restorative justice diversion program for San Francisco youth affected recidivism. “Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program” by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-ded...

Santiago Tobón talks about why gangs govern particular areas, and what to do about it. “Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for s...

Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior. “Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE...

Aaron Chalfin talks about the effects of street lighting on crime. This episode was first posted in October 2019. "Reducing Crime Through Environmental Design: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Street Lighting in New York City" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Jason Lerner, and Lucie Parker. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the sh...

David Eil talks with Carissa Byrne Hessick about her book, "Punishment Without Trial: Why Plea Bargaining Is a Bad Deal." *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work!  

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. This episode was first posted in March 2020. "Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If y...

Kerri Raissian talks about the effects of domestic violence courts. “Specialization in Criminal Courts: Decision Making, Recidivism, and Re-victimization in Domestic Violence Courts in Tennessee” by Aria Golestani, Emily Owens, and Kerri Raissian. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contributi...

Guest host Amanda Agan talks with Jennifer Doleac about how DNA databases affect crime and recidivism. “The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders” by Anne Sofie Tegner Anker, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Rasmus Landersø. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contributi...

Giovanni Mastrobuoni talks about how predictive policing affects crime. “Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity” by Giovanni Mastrobuoni. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work! *** OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN...