Probable Causation

Johannes Kasinger talks about how retail crime affects prices. “ The Pass-Through of Retail Crime ” by Carl Hase and Johannes Kasinger. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Is murder bad for business? Evidence from Colombia " by Sandra V. Rozo. “ Market structure and extortion: Evidence from 50,000 extortion payments " by Zach Y Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Mic...

Diogo Britto talks about how job loss affects criminal behavior in Brazil. “ The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil ” by Diogo Britto, Paolo Pinotti, and Breno Sampaio. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Crime and the Labour Market " by Richard B. Freeman. “ Job Displacement, Unemployment, and Crime: Evidence From Danish Microdata and Reforms " by Patrick Be...

Manisha Shah talks about reducing intimate partner violence among young people in Tanzania. " Sex, Power, and Adolescence: Intimate Partner Violence and Sexual Behaviors " by Manisha Shah, Jennifer Seager, Joao Montalvao, and Markus Goldstein. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Income Changes and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from Unconditional Cash Transfers in Kenya " by Johannes...

Juan Vargas talks about the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia. " The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement " by Mounu Prem, Juan F. Vargas, and Daniel Mejía. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Inside the war on drugs: Effectiveness and unintended consequences of a large illicit crops eradication program in Colombia " by...

David Phillips talks about the effects of providing free public transit. " Eliminating Fares to Expand Opportunities: Experimental Evidence on the Impacts of Free Public Transportation on Economic and Social Disparities " by Rebecca Brough, Matthew Freedman, and David C. Phillips. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Getting to Work: Experimental Evidence on Job Search and Transportation C...

Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden have a conversation about their new books, both about crime and punishment. Jen’s book: The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice . Paige’s book: Original Sin: On the Genetics of Vice, the Problem of Blame, and the Future of Forgiveness . Jennifer Doleac is the Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures. Paige Hard...

Steeve Marchand talks about the effects of prison programs on behavior. " Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism: Evidence from Variations in Availability " by William Arbour, Guy Lacroix, and Steeve Marchand. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago " by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan,...

Ezra Golberstein talks about the impacts of school-based mental health services. " Effects of School-Based Mental Health Services on Youth Outcomes " by Ezra Golberstein, Irina Zainullina, Aaron Sojourner, and Mark A. Sander. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Investing in Children to Address the Child Mental Health Crisis " by Janet Currie. “ The FDA and ABCs: Unintended Consequences of...

Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice   In this episode of Probable Causation: Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police. This episode was first posted in April 2024. “ A Cognitive View of Policing ” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Thinking, fast a...

Vijetha Koppa talks about Lethality Assessment Programs used by police in domestic violence incidents. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Does the Certainty of Arrest Reduce Domestic Violence? Evidence from Mandatory and Recommended Arrest Laws " by Radha Iyengar. " Revisiting the Effect of Warrantless Domestic Violence Arrest Laws on Intimate Partner Homicides " by Yoo Mi Chin and Scott...

Peter Blair talks about occupational licenses as information about criminal records. “ Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing ” by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ The Prevalence and Effects of Occupational Licensing " by Morris M. Kleiner and Alan B. Krueger. “ Analyzing the Extent and Influence of Occupational Licensing on the Labor Mar...

Joseph Doyle talks about improving foster care outcomes. “ Effects of Enhanced Legal Aid in Child Welfare: Evidence from a Randomized Trial of Mi Abogado ” by Ryan Cooper, Joseph J. Doyle, and Andrés Hojman. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ The Effects of Legal Representation on Tenant Outcomes in Housing Court: Evidence from New York City’s Universal Access Program ” by Michael T. Cas...

Barry Friedman talks with Jens Ludwig about his book: Unforgiving Places: The Unexpected Origins of American Gun Violence.

Elin Colmsjö talks about how health shocks affect criminal behavior. “ Breaking Bad: How Health Shocks Prompt Crime ” by Steffen Andersen, Elin Colmsjö, Gianpaolo Parise, and Kim Peijnenburg.  OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Participation in illegitimate activities: A theoretical and empirical investigation " by Isaac Ehrlich. “ Long-term and spillover effects of health shocks on empl...

Sekou Keita talks about how media policies that limit information reported about criminal offenders can unintentionally increase bias against the group they're trying to protect. “ The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration ” by Sekou Kenta, Thomas Renault, and Jérôme Valette. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Anti-Muslim voting and m...

Nour Abdul-Razzak talks about her research on a cognitive behavioral therapy program called Choose to Change. “ Longer-term Impacts of a Youth Behavioral Science Intervention: Experimental Evidence from Chicago ” by Nour Abdul-Razzak, Brandon Domash, Kelly Hallberg, and Cristobal Pinto Poehls. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Scarcity: Why having too little means so much by Sendhil Mulla...

Crystal Yang talks about her research on the accreditation of jail-based health care. “ The Hidden Health Care Crisis Behind Bars: A Randomized Trial to Accredit U.S. Jails ” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Impact of hospital accreditation on quality improvement in healthcare: A systematic review ” by Mohammad J. Alhawajreh, Audrey S. Paterson, and...

Steve Mello talks the long-term financial impacts of small criminal justice fines. “ Fines and Financial Wellbeing ” by Steven Mello. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Report on the economic well-being of U.S. households in 2017 " by Jeff Larrimore, Alex Durante, Kimberly Kreiss, Christina Park, and Claudia Sahm. " Criminalizing poverty: The consequences of court fees in a randomized ex...

Rachel Nesbit talks about the effects of mandating mental health treatment for probationers. “ The Role of Mandated Mental Health Treatment in the Criminal Justice System ” by Rachel Nesbit. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Calgary Diversion Program: A Community-Based Alternative to Incarceration for Mentally Ill Offenders ” by Craig Mitton, Liz Simpson, Leslie Gardner, Fran Barnes, an...

Peter Hull talks about the effects of a jail-based education program called IGNITE. “ 'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program ” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ What Works? Questions and Answers about Prison Reform ” by Robert Martinson. “ Incarceration, Recidivism, and Empl...

Abi Adams talks about economic abuse as it relates to intimate partner violence. “ The Dynamics of Abusive Relationships ” by Abi Adams, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " Motherhood and Violence " by Gabriela Deschamps. " Female empowerment and male backlash: Experimental evidence from India " by Claire Cullen, Sarthak Joshi, Joseph Vecci,...

Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform. “No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho. “The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Emplo...

Roman Rivera talks about the effects of electronic monitoring for US pretrial defendants. “ Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes ” by Roman Rivera. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: " The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges " by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Cry...

Aurélie Ouss talks about how changing who pays for incarceration affects sentencing decisions. “ Misaligned incentives and the scale of incarceration in the United States ” by Aurélie Ouss. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: The Collapse of American Criminal Justice by William J. Stuntz. " The rise in the disability rolls and the decline in unemployment " by David H. Autor and Mark G. Dugg...

Anjali Adukia talks about how using restorative justice practices in schools affects student behavior. “ From Retributive to Restorative: An Alternative Approach to Justice in Schools ” by Anjali Adukia, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Fatemeh Momeni. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “ Breaking Schools’ Rules: A Statewide Study of How School Discipline Relates to Students’ Success and Juvenile...