Probable Causation

Emily Leslie talks about how social distancing due to COVID-19 has affected domestic violence. "Sheltering in place and domestic violence: Evidence from calls for service during COVID-19" by Emily Leslie and Riley Wilson. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence” by Anna Aizer. “Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Vi...

Anna Bindler talks about the labor market effects of crime victimization. "Scaring or scarring? Labour market effects of criminal victimisation" by Anna Bindler and Nadine Ketel. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Criminal Deterrence: A Review of the Literature" by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary. "Crime and Economic Incentives" by Mirko Draca and Stephen Machin. "Crime and Mental Well-B...

CarlyWill Sloan talks about racial bias in police use of force. "Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls" by Mark Hoekstra and CarlyWill Sloan. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence” by Shamena Anwar and Hanming Fang. “Generalising the Hit Rates Test for Racial Bias in Law Enforce...

Jamein Cunningham talks about the effects of providing legal services to the poor. "Changes in Family Structure and Welfare Participation Since the 1960s: The Role of Legal Services" by Andrew Goodman-Bacon and Jamein P. Cunningham. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Justice and Reform: The Formative Years of the OEO Legal Services Program” by Earl Johnson. “To Establish Justice for All:...

Ellora Derenoncourt talks about how the Great Migration affected economic mobility. "Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective" by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie R. Jones, and Sonya R. Porter. "The Impacts of Neighborh...

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. "Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager. “The e...

David Phillips talks about how emergency financial assistance for housing affects crime. " Does emergency financial assistance reduce crime? " by Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, and James X. Sullivan. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Scarcity: Why Having Too Little Means So Much" by Sendhil Mullainathan. "Evicted: Poverty and Profit in the American City" by Matthew Desmond. "Family...

Jason Lindo talks about how violent media content affects crime. "Persistent Effects of Violent Media Content" by Jason M. Lindo, Isaac D. Swensen, and Glen R. Waddell. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Violent Video Games Stress People Out and Make Them More Aggressive” by Hasan Youssef, Laurent Bègue, and Brad J. Bushman. “Does Movie Violence Increase Violent Crime?” by Gordon Dahl and...

Sarit Weisburd talks about the effect of police presence on crime. "Police Presence, Rapid Response Rates, and Crime Prevention" by Sarit Weisburd. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “The Kansas City Preventative Patrol Experiment” by George L. Kelling, Tony Pate, Duane Dieckman, Charles E. Brown. “General Deterrent Effects of Police Patrol in Crime Hot Spots: A Randomized Controlled Trial...

Jeremy West talks about racial bias in police investigations. This episode was first posted in December 2019. "Racial Bias in Police Investigations" by Jeremy West. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by John Knowles, Nicola Persico and Petra Todd. "An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evid...

Emily Weisburst talks about the effects of putting police officers in schools. This episode was first posted in August 2019. "Patrolling Public Schools: The Impact of Funding for School Police on Student Discipline and Long‐term Education Outcomes" by Emily K. Weisburst OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Whose Help is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforce...

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. "How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk. “The Impact of...

Brittany Street talks about how local employment shocks affect criminal behavior. "The Impact of Economic Opportunity on Criminal Behavior: Evidence from the Fracking Boom" by Brittany Street. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Your Friends and Neighbors: Localized Economics Development and Criminal Activity” by Matthew Freedman and Emily Owens. “Who Really Benefits from a Resource Boom?...

Patricio Dominguez talks about how the interactions of victims and offenders affect crime, using bus robberies in Chile as a case study. "How Offenders and Victims Interact: A Case-study from a Public Transportation Reform" by Patricio Domínguez. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Punishment and Crime: A Critique of Current Findings Concerning the Preventive Effects of Punishment” by Phil...

Jillian Carr talks about how staggering the distribution of SNAP benefits affects crime. "SNAP Benefits and Crime: Evidence from Changing Disbursement Schedules" by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “One More Saturday Night: Food Stamp Timing and Monthly Consumption Patterns” by Elena Castellari, Chad Cotti, John M. Gordanier, and Orgul D. Ozturk. “Wel...

Benjamin Hansen talks about how legalizing marijuana in some states affects cross-state sales of the drug. "Federalism, Partial Prohibition, and Cross-Border Sales: Evidence from Recreational Marijuana" by Benjamin Hansen, Keaton Miller, and Caroline Weber. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: “Medical Marijuana Laws, Traffic Fatalities, and Alcohol Consumption” by Mark D. Anderson, Benjamin...

Kirabo Jackson talks about the effects of single-sex education on academic outcomes, arrests, and teen motherhood. "Can Introducing Single-Sex Education into Low-Performing Schools Improve Academics, Arrests, and Teen Motherhood" by C. Kirabo Jackson. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "Single-Sex Schools, Student Achievement, and Course Selection: Evidence from Rule-Based Student Assignme...

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. "Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller. "Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by Da...

Adam Gelb talks about the Council on Criminal Justice, a new invitational membership organization and think tank focused on the criminal justice field.

Logan Lee talks about residential housing programs and recidivism. "Halfway Home? Residential Housing and Reincarceration" by Logan M. Lee. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "From Locked Up to Locked Out: Access to Affordable Rental Housing and Criminal Recidivism" by Timothy Young. "Stress and Hardship After Prison" by Bruce Western, Anthony A. Braga, Jaclyn Davis, and Catherine Sirois....

We've unlocked this bonus episode, originally available only to Patreon subscribers: David Eil interviews Rachel Barkow about her book, Prisoners of Politics. *** Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution . Thank you for supporting our work!

Lelys Dinarte talks about the effects of after-school programs for at-risk youth in El Salvador. "Preventing Violence in the Most Violent Contexts: Behavioral and Neurophysiological Evidence from El Salvador" by Lelys Dinarte and Pablo Egana-delSol "Peer Effects on Violence. Experimental Evidence in El Salvador" by Lelys Dinarte [Draft available from the author upon request.] OTHER RESEARCH WE DIS...

Phil Levine talks about the increase in gun exposure and accidental shootings in the wake of Sandy Hook. "Firearms and Accidental Deaths: Evidence from the Aftermath of the Sandy Hook School Shooting" by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: "The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United...

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. "Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.) Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Coo...

J.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries. "Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?" by J.J. Prescott and Jonah E. Rockoff. OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: Legislation Targeting Sex Offenders: Are Recent Policies Effective in Reducing Rape? by Alissa R. Ackerman, Meghan Sacks and David F. Greenberg. The Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivi...