On Peace

Venezuela was a recurrent topic of discussions during U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's recent tour through Latin America, says USIP's Keith Mines : "The hemisphere is looking for a new approach to Venezuela … the previous consensus of just adding more pressure and hoping for the best is breaking down."

With Ukraine making massive gains on the ground, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s escalating threats "show that [he] is getting a little bit desperate," says USIP's  Mary Glantz . "He's been feeling a lot of pressure to show some victories," which has left the world "holding their breath to see what might happen."

As President Biden hosts a first-ever U.S. summit with Pacific Island countries, USIP’s  Brian Harding  says regional leaders "have some concerns" about growing U.S.-China competition — but they would rather "talk about their own interests and needs … If you ask them, their top priority by far is climate change."

Ahead of the International Day of Peace on September 21, USIP’s Joseph Sany says the occasion is “an opportunity to celebrate, reflect and demonstrate our commitment” to building peace in our communities — as well as a chance to connect with millions of others through the Peace Day Challenge .

Despite geopolitical tensions, the U.N. General Assembly remains important for cooperation on urgent global challenges like climate change, says USIP's  Andrew Cheatham : "It's within the bureaucracy of the United Nations that a lot of countries can show leadership … If we didn’t have the U.N., I think we'd have to build it."

After recent episodes of violence, Iraq’s political stalemate continues. “Bottom line … this is a fight over power” and differing views on foreign influence, says USIP’s  Sarhang Hamasaeed . “The Iraqi people are actually fighting for democracy. It is just the political class … that makes that a longer fight.”

A year on, the situation in Afghanistan is "looking really grim" as women and girls have lost the gains made over the past two decades and the country’s humanitarian crisis continues to spiral, says USIP’s  Belquis Ahmadi .  "The Taliban are trying to erase women from society."

With President Ortega now attacking the Catholic Church, USIP's  Mary Speck  says Nicaragua's democratic backsliding "has gone further than any other country" in Central America — noting the risk that regional leaders could follow Ortega’s lead after they "see what [he] has been able to get away with."

With “more people going hungry in Afghanistan than anywhere else in the world,” the Taliban have shown they recognize “the scope of the problems they’re facing. But they’ve also revealed … just how little they can do to grapple with the world’s worst humanitarian crisis,” says USIP's  Andrew Watkins .

The 2020 Doha Agreement was meant to force the Taliban to "think twice" before harboring terror groups. But Ayman al-Zawahiri's killing in Kabul shows the deal was "just a piece of paper for the Taliban. They had no qualms about once again hosting the main leader of al-Qaida," says USIP's  Asfandyar Mir .

Despite loosening former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa family's powerful grip on Sri Lankan politics, there's still "a crisis of legitimacy in the country, where people see the leadership can’t deliver" on issues like reconciliation, political reform and addressing the devastating economic crisis, says USIP's  Tamanna Salikuddin .

On Monday, Tunisians voted on a new constitution proposed by President Kais Saied that vastly expands the powers of his office. While turnout was low, many Tunisians "support what the president is doing … they are voting based on one specific objective, which is to improve economic and social conditions," says USIP's Elie Abouaoun.

As fighting intensifies in eastern Ukraine, USIP's  Ambassador William Taylor  says the war is now "a race … between the Ukrainians trying to get new weapons coming from the United States and other NATO nations while the Russians try to move through the eastern part of the country."

Biden set to meet nine Middle East leaders, USIP’s Ambassador Hesham Youssef  says the trip aims to untangle recent tensions rather than “result in all kinds of breakthroughs and deliverables … the question is whether we can set ourselves on a path that can lead to more constructive relations.”

As it stands, both sides see little reason to engage in peace talks. But USIP’s  Juan Diaz-Prinz  says that shouldn’t stop the international community from trying to incentive an end to the conflict: “We’ve got to try everything, and we’ve got to try every avenue until the right one fits.”

With back-to-back G-7 and NATO summits this week, USIP's Donald Jensen says President Biden is focused on maintaining unity among allies and partners as the war in Ukraine grinds on: "Putin is counting on the faltering of Western assistance and political support for Ukraine … and that's what we’ll see discussed this week."

Last summer, "Tunisians had really reached a breaking point in their frustration with the previous government" and welcomed President Kais Saied's dissolution of parliament, says USIP's Leo Siebert. But that hope "is now shifting to apprehensiveness that things might not be going in the right direction."

While "there was a lot of controversy on the way in," USIP's  Keith Mines  says the summit produced several notable outcomes, including a declaration on migration, that give regional leaders a chance to "put some resources behind [these issues] and hopefully pull together some new initiatives."

With no establishment candidate left, Colombia's June 19 presidential runoff reflects voters' perception that "things [on] the ground are quite bleak" as the remaining candidates "promise significant degrees of change for Colombia and its relationship with the United States," says USIP’s Steve Hege.

President Biden returned from Asia “having scored some positive points in the region,” says USIP’s Carla Freeman. But Biden’s forceful backing of Taiwan and China’s response is leading to “actual risk that there could be a collision … which could spark some kind of conflict.”

Amid a flurry of Asia diplomatic initiatives, USIP’s Frank Aum says President Biden’s trip is a chance to show the United States is committed to having a major presence in the Indo-Pacific, but that “this is not something that happens in a single summit… We’re going to have to continue to strengthen those efforts.”

Security, territorial and political tensions between Southern Asia’s three nuclear states — Pakistan, India and China — "have gotten worse over the past few years," says USIP’s Daniel Markey. "These are countries that have been at war a number of times… that [makes] these hostilities difficult to manage."

Ahead of this week’s U.S.-ASEAN summit, USIP’s  Brian Harding  says the Biden administration is “kicking off a really intense period of diplomatic engagement with Asia” with plans to draw a contrast with China and seek cooperation on issues such as climate change and supply chains.

Amid ongoing revelations of atrocities committed against Ukrainians at the hands of Russian forces, USIP’s Lauren Baillie says efforts to investigate and prosecute these crimes will require creativity and “the ability to think more broadly about how we bring perpetrators to justice and recognize the unique needs of victims.”

As Russia’s war in Ukraine unfolds, USIP’s Heather Ashby says the United States should “keep an eye on Russia’s security partnerships with [African] countries” and pay close attention to “whether the rise in fuel prices or food scarcity trigger any type of unrest” on the continent.