On Peace

As Russia withdraws resources from Myanmar to focus on Ukraine, China has filled the void by publicly supporting the junta. Meanwhile, the situation inside Myanmar continues to deteriorate, with “the military only able to hang on [to power] by using violence of tragic proportions,” says USIP’s Jason Tower.

Over the weekend, Imran Khan became the first Pakistani prime minister to be ousted in a no-confidence vote. USIP's Tamanna Salikuddin says, "There are a lot of reasons why he lost the support of [the] military establishment and also parliament" but that "his downfall really, number one, was the economy."

Israel’s Negev summit with top Arab and U.S. diplomats was “groundbreaking” for the region. “You could not think of a more dramatic way to underscore the acceptance of Israel into the Arab world,” says USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen.

With Russian forces reportedly shifting focus to Donbas, USIP’s Donald Jensen says, “Overall the Russian military has been unmasked to be … quite a bit more of a paper tiger than expected. But that doesn't mean they're not dangerous or effective in some places.”

While there are similarities between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s aggression toward Taiwan, USIP’s  Andrew Scobell  says the two situations are markedly different upon closer inspection: “Russia also likes to flout international norms [while] China largely pretends to be playing by them.”

For the first time in 20 years, USIP's Donald Jensen says we've seen cracks in Russian elites' allegiance to Putin: "While they're still amorphous and not very organized, they're clearly unhappy." And if the war drags on and losses mount, "Putin has a big, long-term problem on his hands."

As Ukraine's military continues to resist Russian advances throughout the country, USIP's  Ambassador William Taylor  offers the latest updates on the situation, saying the "the international tide is clearly turning against Russia" as more nations implement sanctions and that "Russia is now a pariah state."

The pandemic has “really laid bare some inequalities” facing those with disabilities, says USIP’s  Elizabeth Murray . But last week’s Global Disability Summit offered “an opportunity for disability inclusion to be integrated across U.S. foreign policy,” particularly when it comes to peacebuilding programs. 

As Pakistani leaders quarrel with the neighboring Afghan Taliban over the demarcation of their shared border, USIP’s  Asfandyar Mir  says Pakistan’s own Taliban insurgency has “been boosted by the example of the Afghan Taliban … if things continue to escalate over the medium term, things become very difficult for Pakistan.”

After the annual PeaceCon featured climate change as one of the conference’s main themes, USIP’s Tegan Blaine says, “It’s no longer possible to say that climate change does not intersect with peacebuilding. The realities are there … we need to be more honest about what the likely impacts are going to be.”

A year after the military coup, Myanmar’s diverse opposition is working together on an alternative to military rule. USIP’s  Priscilla Clapp  says while “it will take years to bring a consensus about for this new government, it’s a very good start … we have hope that there can be unity there if they work on it.”

Kazakhstan has stabilized after protests broke out to start the new year. USIP’s Gavin Helf says while the sudden unrest was driven by “real, honest-to-goodness protests … what we really saw was the weakness of authoritarian systems,” as loyalists of the previous and current leaders clashed amid the public upheaval.

While Ukraine’s military is in much better shape than when Russia first invaded in 2014, USIP’s  William Taylor  says it’s “not able to hold off the entire Russian military” alone, and that the United States and NATO must “make it clear to President Putin that the costs of invading will be much greater than the benefits.”

Despite the military junta’s imprisonment of ousted Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi, USIP’s Billy Ford says there’s an opening for more inclusive narratives within the resistance movement — and if the movement can “unify around those [narratives] … it could come together and potentially defeat this regime.”

Despite a “near-total loss of faith in the political process” going into 2022, USIP’s Keith Mines says Venezuelans have not lost hope for a better future — and that underneath the polarization and dissatisfaction, you can “find a vision for the country that is shared by most Venezuelans.”

Three decades after President Mikhail Gorbachev resigned, beginning the dissolution of the Soviet Union, USIP’s Donald Jensen says, “The collapse is still continuing. It didn’t fall apart at once … and in many ways [it] shapes our relationship with Eastern Europe and Russia today.”

While China’s influence in Southeast Asia is inevitable, the region welcomed Secretary Blinken’s recent trip as a counterweight to Beijing, says USIP’s Brian Harding: “[The region] wants balance, which means they want the United States to be as engaged as possible.”

With the vote likely to be postponed, USIP’s Elie Abouaoun says frustrations are high over Libya’s political and economic stagnation as the international community tries to “generate a new political agreement … just to make sure the elections can happen without a major outbreak of violence.” 

As Russia continues its military build-up along the Ukrainian border, USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor says diplomatic talks are the best path toward a peaceful resolution — but that we still don’t fully understand Putin’s intentions: “Is he bluffing? Is he trying to intimidate … or is he serious about invading?

Amid a global democratic recession, USIP’s Joseph Sany says President Biden’s Summit for Democracy is an important “statement of solidarity,” but that “if [democracies] want to regain or strengthen their legitimacy,” they must deliver for their people, adding: “If you lose the citizens’ trust, you lose everything.”

It’s been 40 years since the U.N. adopted a resolution to end persecution based on faith and defend religious minorities. USIP’s Knox Thames says decades later, “It’s a work in progress … While the situation is bleak, there is a global movement that is starting to build and trying to meet this challenge.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent trip to Kenya, Nigeria and Senegal was a major step toward re-establishing U.S. engagement on the continent, says USIP’s Makila James: “Showing up matters in Africa … it’s important to demonstrate to Africans that Africa is vital to U.S. national interests.”

As the climate summit wraps up, USIP’s  Tegan Blaine  says the focus on net-zero commitments overshadowed immediate concerns such as addressing climate-driven migration: “We needed to commit to these things 10 years ago, 20 years ago … and we didn’t. So now the time is quite short.”

As rebel forces march toward Ethiopia’s capital in a bid to end the government blockade of the Tigray region, USIP’s Susan Stigant says there is a “risk that this logic of violence could tilt into a much deeper civil war.” In the meantime, Washington should keep trying to “get people to a table and agree to a pause.”

As Afghans face mass hunger and economic collapse, USIP’s Scott Worden says it remains to be seen how the Taliban will react to internal and external pressure to address these crises: “Will they respond … by adapting, by softening policies, by being more inclusive or will they have a crackdown?”