On Peace

China has ramped up its engagement in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador so that it can “operate in the United States’ backyard,” says USIP’s Mary Speck . However, China “likes to give showy gifts, but hasn’t really invested” in what the region needs to address governance issues, economic instability and organized crime.

Transnational scams based out of Southeast Asia are increasingly targeting American citizens in a trend that is being “increasingly compared to fentanyl in terms of the impacts on the U.S.,” says USIP’s Jason Tower , adding that since the crime syndicates have close ties with China, we should be “pushing China on this issue to hold it accountable.”

As China works to establish “a space Silk Road” through space partnerships in Africa, “There is real reason to question whether Chinese behavior in space is going to be similar” to Beijing’s current disregard for international laws around issues such as maritime territorial claims and intellectual property rights, says USIP’s Dean Cheng .

U.S.-India relations under the new Trump administration “got off to a decent start” with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington, D.C., last week, says USIP’s Daniel Markey , who added that while there is some friction over looming tariffs, the U.S. approach to trade and defense seemed to be “music to India’s ears.”

After decades of poor governance, ethnic tensions and illegal resource exploitation in the mineral-rich eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwandan-backed rebels’ capture of Goma “has the potential to bring … seven countries into [the] conflict” and ignite a wider regional war, says USIP’s Joseph Sany .

As the U.S. prepares for “continued stormy weather” in its relations with China, it’s important to remember that while Beijing’s escalatory actions remain below the threshold of outright conflict, Chinese leaders “think about war and peace as being on a continuum,” says USIP’s Andrew Scobell .

With the cease-fire in Gaza, Yemen’s Houthis have halted their “near daily” attacks on Israel. However, the Houthis have made clear that “this is a very tenuous pause,” says USIP’s April Longley Alley , adding: “They view [Gaza] as part of a larger struggle … this is going to be a medium- and long-term threat.”

With phase one of the cease-fire underway, the next major question to be answered is: “What would fill [the] governance void in Gaza going forward,” says USIP’s Robert Barron , adding that the Trump administration might consider “a new version of the Abraham Accords that has a Gaza component.”

A presidential transition can be “a moment of vulnerability for the United States,” says USIP Board Chair John Sullivan . But good communication and critical developments in the global landscape “have opened up avenues where real progress can be made” in places like the Middle East, says former Admiral Gary Roughead .

As U.S.-China tensions ratchet up along economic, political and technological fronts, effectively countering Beijing means “understanding [their] mindset,” says USIP’s Dean Cheng . “When we talk about the Chinese having a long-term plan, we’re not talking one year or two years, we’re talking decades.”

Amid rising conflict, strategic rivalry and other alarming global trends, “instability has become somewhat of the new norm,” says USIP’s Michael Bruhn . But USIP’s Passing the Baton event offers a chance for incoming and outgoing national security officials to show that the U.S. “doesn’t skip a beat” when it comes to meeting these challenges.

As the incoming administration prepares for “the enormity of the tasks that they [will be] confronting,” USIP’s Passing the Baton event offers a chance for national security leaders from across the political spectrum to discuss critical foreign policy challenges, says USIP Board Chair Ambassador John Sullivan : “It’s in everyone’s interest and our national interest.”

Baring a “tipping point” sparked by mass demonstrations against President Nicolás Maduro’s inauguration this week, “a grand bargain between the opposition, the regime and the United States … is what many people think is the only thing that can work” to bring stability back to Venezuela, says USIP’s Keith Mines .

As Ukraine considers the “political loaded” question of whether to lower the age of military mobilization, Putin increasingly sees the war “not just as a land grab, but as a civilizational battle between Russia and the West,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen , adding: “We should not think that the war is anything close to being settled.”

The fall of Assad is “nothing short of a tectonic shift in power” across the Middle East, with Iran emerging as “the biggest loser” and Turkey “positioned to be a big winner,” says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian . But “the situation is going to bear very close watching … the stakes in Syria aren’t just regional, they’re global.”

After the “stunning” collapse of the Assad regime, “the geostrategic stakes [in] Syria couldn’t be higher,” says USIP’s  Mona Yacoubian . The question now on everyone’s mind is “Who rebuilds Syria? … The process [should] be Syrian-led and Syrian-owned.”

President Biden’s recent trip to Angola sought to offer African countries a U.S.-led alternative to China’s dominance in the critical mineral sector, says USIP’s  Thomas Sheehy : “The hope is that we can operate in the same environment [as China] and raise the standards and ultimately have Africans expect higher standards” from international investors.

When it comes to meeting the world’s growing energy demands without furthering carbon emissions, there is room for a “both-and” approach that safely expands nuclear power while still advancing nonproliferation, says USIP’s Brittany Croll : “There really is an interest and need for robust cooperation.”

While the outcomes of the recent G20 summit in Brazil can be seen “as a glass half full or a glass half empty,” perhaps the most noteworthy takeaway from this year’s proceedings was “the Global South having a bigger and bigger voice in global issues,” says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham .

In firing the country’s interim prime minister, Haiti’s transition presidential council “generated a fair amount of concern” over whether the country could stabilize governance to meet the timeline for elections in early 2026, says USIP’s Georges Fauriol , adding: “The outlook doesn’t look all that positive.”  

While the “very volatile situation” in Mozambique is nominally in response to October’s presidential election, “it’s been several years in the making,” says USIP’s Thomas Sheehy , adding “what we’re seeing [there] is what we’re seeing elsewhere in Africa … a dissatisfaction with the ruling party.”

As Beijing ratchets up military pressure along the Strait, Taiwan remains “the one area where we are most likely to see … a direct confrontation between the United States and China” because a conflict “would affect a lot of our allies [like] Japan, South Korea and the Philippines,” says USIP’s   Dean Cheng . 

Amid the latest exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran, the Middle East is “a region that really is on fire,” says USIP’s  Mona Yacoubian .  “There are no guardrails anymore … all of these different players are testing and probing each other to see what they can get away with. And that’s where the danger lies.”

More than 100,000 Colombians have been forcibly disappeared over the last six decades. Finding their remains is “tremendously healing” and can “repair the social fabric” by giving closure to the victims’ loved ones and allowing former armed actors “to regain their own dignity” by contributing to the process, says USIP’s Steve Hege.  

The legacies of the Vietnam War were once an obstacle to U.S.-Vietnam relations. But today, addressing those legacies has become “key foundation” for bilateral cooperation, says USIP’s Andrew Wells-Dang . And as ties continue to grow, youth from both countries “have a new vision for how our countries can work together.”