On Peace

The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS recently recommitted itself to fighting the remnants of the Islamic State “not just as a group and an entity,” says USIP’s Osama Gharizi , “but also dealing with the factors that gave rise [to it]” and the legacies it left behind — like the process of repatriating those who lived under its rule.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech at the U.N. General Assembly made clear that Ukraine will not give up claims to territory. “Even if they don’t get [the land] all back right away, they will eventually get it back,” says USIP’s  Ambassador William Taylor , which will leave Putin with “no choice but to look for a way out.”

After dealing with “growing cynicism and lack of participation” in recent years, the U.N. General Assembly opened this week by adopting the Pact for the Future, which represents commitments from 193 countries to “really reform global governance as we know it,” says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham .

During his 10-day trip to the region, the pope used “straight, plain-spoken language” while discussing pressing issues — such as climate change in Indonesia and violence against women in Papua New Guinea — in the hopes of spurring change, said USIP’s Gordon Peake : “No pun intended, he has a bit of a bully pulpit in these matters.”

With a Kenyan-led security mission and a new interim government in place in Haiti, Secretary Blinken’s visit to the country shows that “the United States has been trying hard … to take advantage of the momentum,” says USIP’s Keith Mines , adding that while there’s a long way to go, “for now, there’s something to build on.”

Details from U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan’s recent meetings in Beijing with senior Chinese officials have been scarce. But amid simmering tensions, the fact the meeting occurred at all is notable, says USIP’s  Dean Cheng : “The point here, I suspect, is simply to have communications.”

After protests forced longtime Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign earlier this month, Bangladesh’s new interim government is “seeking, at this moment, to grasp that democratic spark” and “set forward the reforms that are going lead to a new political culture” in the country, says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin .

The Ukrainian military seized a chunk of territory in the Kursk region of Russia as part of a surprise incursion that has left the Russian military in “a panic,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen , adding that Putin’s strategy until now did not “take into account that Ukraine could strike back, and they certainly have.”

The recent exchange of prisoners between Russia and Western countries was historic on multiple fronts. But the “coherence and solidarity” displayed by U.S. allies was what made the deal possible, says USIP’s  Ambassador William Taylor : “The conversations among allies were as important as the conversation with the Russians.”

Last week’s election in Venezuela has created a political firestorm as disputed returns have led to demonstrations and street violence. “The international community, and especially the U.S., will need to stay focused in their support for democratic change in Venezuela” over the long term, says USIP’s Keith Mines . 

China and the Philippines recently struck a secretive deal to deescalate confrontations over the Second Thomas Shoal, “one of the tensest flashpoints in the western Pacific,” says USIP’s Andrew Scobell . “Nobody wants to see it escalate to war,” but the “the ambiguity [of the deal] … allows both sides to claim victory.”

More than a year into Sudan’s civil war, the country is facing the “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis” as international aid struggles to find its way to those in need, says USIP’s  Susan Stigant : “At this point, unfortunately, all of the efforts collectively are not meeting the needs” of Sudanese citizens.

The election of reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s new president dealt a “stunning blow in many ways to the hardliners,” says USIP’s  Robin Wright . However, “the hardliners still have control of the legislature and the judiciary, and they can create havoc for the new president” and his agenda.

China’s successful trip to the far side of the moon — the first nation to accomplish the feat — is not only “great advertising” for potential technology partnerships, it’s “part of the larger Chinese space effort” that seeks to expand China’s own dual-use capabilities in space, says USIP’s Dean Cheng .

Putin’s trip to North Korea wasn’t just about securing more weapons for his war on Ukraine — Moscow and Pyongyang signed a mutual defense pact, which could be “potentially very destabilizing for the Korean Peninsula” and “smacks a little of desperation” on Russia’s part, says USIP’s Mary Glantz .

While Haiti’s Transitional Council has appointed a prime minister to lead a temporary government and the Kenyan-led international security mission is expected to deploy soon, “[Haiti’s] gangs are still pretty strong,” says USIP’s Keith Mines . “There’s really going to be a fight for power … over the coming months.”

The U.S. reached an agreement with Niger’s military junta to close two military bases in the country in what amounts to a “tactical setback” for counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel. But the closure also “forces the U.S. to review its military posture in the region,” says USIP’s Joseph Sany , adding “there may be other options."

With the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, the Iranian regime has reached “a critical turning point.” And with just two weeks until the vote to replace him, it’s important to pay attention to “not only who wins the new presidency, but how many Iranians actually participate in the process,” says USIP’s  Robin Wright .

As terror threats emanating from Afghanistan and Pakistan rise, many may see counterterrorism as a distraction from other U.S. priorities, such as competition with China and Russia. But investment in counterterrorism can work “preventively, to shield the strategic competition agenda,” says USIP’s Asfandyar Mir .  

Chinese crime syndicates have set up sophisticated online scamming operations throughout Southeast Asia that rake in an estimated $64 billion a year. Relying on forced labor, the scam compounds “look almost like penal colonies,” says USIP’s Jason Tower , adding: “This is happening on an industrial scale.”

China’s military structure is not prone to change. But in a shocking move, Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently established a new military entity focused on “information dominance” in future wars, with many observers “left wondering what this is going to mean and why they did it,” says USIP’s Dean Cheng .

The latest round of  U.S. military aid to Ukraine  will help halt Russia’s slow, grinding advance. But more long-term aid is needed to not only push back Russian forces, but to deter another future invasion, says USIP’s  Ambassador William Taylor . “The only way that this war is going to end is for [Putin’s] cause … to end.”

Contrary to China’s assertions, NATO has a long history of engagement with the Indo-Pacific. But the alliance’s deep partnerships in the region have taken on renewed importance in recent years amid Russia’s war on Ukraine and renewed strategic competition between the U.S. and China, says USIP’s  Mirna Galic .

As part of the first-ever  Global Summit on Indigenous Peacebuilding , indigenous leaders have created a worldwide network to share knowledge and advocate for “indigenous people and indigenous processes … [to] be woven into the larger fabric” of the peacebuilding field, says USIP’s  Binalakshmi Nepram .

The United States, Japan and the Philippines are holding their first-ever trilateral summit this week. China’s “unprecedented” pressure and aggression over maritime claims will top the agenda. “There’s a fairly clear resolve … to not just let China bully its way to changing the status quo in the region,” says USIP’s Vikram Singh .