On Peace

While reporting and leaked files indicate that a Ukrainian offensive to expel Russian troops is in the works, USIP’s  Ambassador William Taylor  says Ukraine still has the element of surprise: “Everyone knows that there’s this counteroffensive coming … what they don’t know is where.”

Vice President Kamala Harris’ trip to Ghana, Zambia and Tanzania is further indication that “the U.S. is finally waking up” to opportunities in Africa, says USIP’s Thomas Sheehy. “Africans want choices, they don’t want to be dependent just on Chinese investment … they want the U.S. engaged.”

As leaders gather for the Biden administration’s second Democracy Summit later this week, the president is working to “really push back on China’s offer” of narrow economic partnerships by “trying to make the case that you need the principles of democracy to have a good economy,” says USIP’s  Andrew Cheatham .

President Biden recently asked Canada to lead a security force to stabilize Haiti. While neither side “wants to do this as something that just props up the [interim] government,” a lack of action “doesn’t mean 11 million people go away. It just means we’re not paying attention,” says USIP’s Keith Mines .

After 12 years of extraordinary brutality and humanitarian suffering, the Assad regime remains entrenched in Syria. With no solution in sight, there is regional momentum toward normalization as countries have “made the calculation that he’s here at least for the foreseeable future,” says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian .

While Nigeria’s elections energized youth voters and avoided widespread violence, President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu won only a plurality of votes. As concerns over the results’ legitimacy mount, “a weak mandate means [Tinubu] is going to have to work very smartly to build coalitions,” says USIP’s Makila James .

A year into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a strategic blunder. But any deal to end the conflict must uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor: “The Russian military needs to leave. That’s got to be the key part of any peace proposal.”

Fifty years ago, the accords led to the withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Vietnam, marking an important step toward a post-war settlement between the United States and Vietnam. Now, “There is a lot of cooperation on economic issues, education, security and on resolving the legacies of the war … we have a comprehensive partnership that is 10 years old,” says USIP’S Andrew Wells-Dang.

Amid a technological boom, space is becoming the latest front for U.S.-China strategic competition. And with only a handful of Cold War-era treaties governing it, the world "needs some new rules and norms to manage a very precious environment for the future," says USIP's  Carla Freeman .

After an especially violent month in the West Bank, a two-state solution seems as distant a prospect as ever — leaving many "worried that we could be witnessing a spiral" in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as no one seems inclined "to take the steps that would be required to realize a two-state solution," says USIP’s  Robert Barron .

The United States and India have a common cause in their tensions with China, as well as a "natural partnership" on technology investments, says USIP's  Sameer Lalwani . But India remains noncommittal when it comes to Russia's war on Ukraine: "They've concluded that they need Russia to stick around."

Twelve years since the fall of Qaddafi, the United Nations' Libya mission carries the same mandate as it did in 2011. With the country still experiencing various degrees of conflict and upheaval, it's time to "re-envision what we want the U.N. to do" in Libya and create a "mandate [that] will reflect that," says USIP's  Thomas Hill .

Amid military struggles in Ukraine, Russia's presence in Syria is slowly receding, setting off a series of regional shifts from Turkey, Iran and Israel that could have major ripple effects on U.S. national security interests, says USIP's  Mona Yacoubian : "There are too many actors there for it be a simple math equation."

President Biden will meet Friday with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida amid "a really high sense of insecurity" over North Korean missile tests, says USIP's  Mirna Galic . On the agenda: Japan's new national security strategy, which features "potential for closer cooperation and integration of U.S. and Japan operations."

When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked Congress for more assistance, he "made the case that Ukraine was defending Europe and defending the United States," says USIP's Ambassador William Taylor. And with Ukrainians more determined than ever, such aid could help usher in a Ukrainian victory over Russia.

Amid the harsh Ukrainian winter, Russia has launched a slate of rocket attacks targeting Ukrainian cities. “They can’t win … so they’re just going to attack civilian targets and hope that it weakens the resolve of the Ukrainian people,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen. “But there’s no sign that’s happening.”

Ahead of this week's summit, USIP's  Joseph Sany  says the United States has shifted its approach toward the continent: "Long gone are the days where America will come and dictate solutions. This time around, we are willing to listen and support African solutions for African problems."

After protests forced China to ease its zero-COVID policies, Xi Jinping will need to weigh socioeconomic stability against his authoritarian aims, says USIP's  Andrew Scobell : "You’re seeing domestically what many countries have noticed China doing beyond its borders: Being more assertive or aggressive."

General Asim Munir was appointed as the new head of Pakistan's military this week — a position often viewed as the de facto leader of the country. Amid a fraught political environment, Munir's "first job is going to be figuring out what the civil-military balance is in Pakistan," says USIP's  Tamanna Salikuddin .

The joint leaders' statement at the G20 Summit, while largely symbolic, showed that "Russia [is] a lot more isolated than perhaps we'd been led to suspect," says USIP’s  Mary Glantz , adding that Russia's anti-imperialist justification for the war in Ukraine is "not getting the traction we thought it was."

A coalition involving several extreme right-wing parties has Benjamin Netanyahu poised to return as Israel's prime minister. "In some sense he owes them a debt," says USIP's  Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen . "What is the cost being extracted by these right-wing parties" as the government formation process begins?

As COP27 continues in Egypt, USIP's  Tegan Blaine  says, "The one issue that is really beginning to explode this year is the issue of loss and damage" and support for poorer countries. "They weren't responsible for the cause, and they don’t have the resources to [address climate change] on their own."

Russian President Vladimir Putin invoked religion as part of his justification for Russia's attack on Ukraine, believing their shared Orthodox history would lend credibility to his ambitions. "Of course, the Ukrainians beg to differ," says USIP's  Knox Thames . "It's actually strengthening Ukrainian resistance to [Putin's] aggressive actions."

Chinese leader Xi Jinping cemented himself as "clearly the most powerful ruler in China since Mao" at the recent National Party Congress. But USIP's Andrew Scobell says Xi has staked his legitimacy on delivering for the Chinese people — and sputtering economic growth poses a significant challenge going forward.

The recent escalation in North Korean missile tests and military exercises is Pyongyang's attempt at gaining leverage over the United States, says USIP's  Frank Aum : "They want to create a crisis in order to pressure the United States back into talks on [North Korea's] terms."