On Peace

The U.N. Security Council approved a multinational security force to address Haiti’s rampant gang violence — but another major challenge will be the volatile political environment. “There’s a lot of work just on government capacity,” says USIP’s Keith Mines . “It would behoove the international community to buckle down and build that capacity.”

U.S. engagement with the Pacific Islands is “still in the honeymoon phase,” says USIP’s Gordon Peake . But as President Biden hosts the second U.S.-Pacific Islands Summit, there are a number of thorny issues that Pacific Island leaders are “hoping to get practical assistance from the United States” to address.

With Ukraine’s counteroffensive making slow, grinding progress, President Zelenskyy will meet with U.S. officials this week in search of long-term assurances “that once he pushes the Russians out of his country, they won’t come back,” says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor , adding: “The ultimate assurance … is membership in NATO.

The comprehensive strategic partnership announced during President Biden’s trip to Vietnam marks 50 years of progress between the two countries and an “upgrade of the U.S.-Vietnam relationship to the highest level,” says USIP’s Andrew Wells-Dang , while adding a caveat that “it doesn’t mean Vietnam is becoming a U.S. ally.”

At the G20 summit, the United States should focus on engaging with the Global South. “A lot of these countries are worried about bread-and-butter issues,” says USIP’s Sameer Lalwani . “In the absence of U.S. leadership at an institutional level … there’s going to be other actors that fill that vacuum.”

The expansion of BRICS is a significant step in the bloc’s push to counterbalance the Western-led international order. But as a consensus-based group, “the question remains to what extent will they agree on what [that] alternative world order might look like,” says USIP’s Henry Tugendhat .

While last week’s summit of U.S., South Korean and Japanese leaders may have been historic, the three countries hope “to really institutionalize trilateral cooperation going forward” through joint diplomatic and security initiatives that present “a stronger, united front” in the Indo-Pacific, says USIP’s  Mirna Galic .

Tensions between China and the Philippines over control of Second Thomas Shoal have become the focal point of China’s increasingly aggressive efforts to assert dominance over the South China Sea, says USIP’s  Dean Cheng : “Essentially what [China] is saying is that huge swath of ocean … is somehow Chinese waters.”

Ahead of the country’s second-round presidential elections later this month, USIP’s Mary Speck explains how judicial interference has injected chaos into the country’s democratic process. There are concerns that Guatemala’s democratic backsliding could reverberate throughout Central America. “What happens in Guatemala can affect the whole region.”

In the 70 years since the Korean War armistice, mutual deterrence has emerged as the prevailing strategy for preventing conflict on the peninsula. But USIP’s Frank Aum says “deterrence is not an end … [it’s] supposed to buy time” for diplomacy, and the West has the power to restart dialogue with North Korea.

After pulling out of a U.N.-backed grain deal, Russia may be looking for ways to ship more grain and fertilizers to African countries ahead of the Russia-Africa Summit. But the summit’s success is far from certain, “not only because of the war in Ukraine, but because Russia hasn’t lived up to its previous promises,” says USIP’s Heather Ashby .

Rather than reinforce the Nonaligned Movement’s perception of a zero-sum choice between the U.S. and other great powers like China, the U.S. should work with allies to offer “a bigger package that helps serve the people and is ultimately more sustainable than what China has to offer,” says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham . 

The NATO summit cleared major hurdles for Sweden to join the alliance and offered a consensus for Ukraine’s eventual accession. With Moscow still dealing with the fallout from Prigozhin’s recent uprising, signs indicate that “Putin is now weaker than anybody in the West thought he’d be two months ago,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen .

While much of the conversation at this week’s NATO summit will be focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the presence of NATO partners Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand “is a testament to … [NATO’s] interest in the Indo-Pacific and the focus on the challenges that China poses for the alliance,” says USIP’s Mirna Galic.

Ukraine’s potential admission into the Euro-Atlantic security alliance will top the agenda at next week’s summit in Lithuania. While it’s unlikely that there will be any clear-cut decision next week, “the opinion in the alliance is leading toward Ukraine moving faster rather than slower” in terms of joining, says USIP’s Mary Glantz. “I think history is on Ukraine’s side right now.”  

While China “had a 20-year head start” on mining critical minerals in Africa, USIP’s Thomas Sheehy says the United States is looking to secure its own supply lines while avoiding adverse effects: “There’s a growing realization … that unless these minerals are developed in a way that works to the benefit of Africans, it’s simply not sustainable.”  

China’s assertiveness has brought the United States and India into closer strategic alignment. But as India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Washington, USIP’s Vikram Singh says it’s important to remember “we’re not allies, we’re partners … The Indians feel like they have to maintain a much more balanced set of relationships” in the Indo-Pacific.

While Haiti’s and Venezuela’s political, security and humanitarian situations remain dire, there are promising regional efforts underway to address both countries’ crises. While “the U.S. is looking for someone else to take the lead” on these situations, “there are things at play that are encouraging and at some point are going to need very tangible U.S. support,” says USIP’s Keith Mines.  

Many Arab countries have concluded that President Bashar al-Assad is entrenched power and that they’ll need his cooperation to address challenges like refugees and the illicit drug trade. In Washington, there is no appetite to normalize with Assad. “I think ultimately what we see is just a fundamental tension between the need for accountability and fatigue in the region,” USIP’s Mona Yacoubian say...

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Global Security Initiative seeks to supplant the U.S.-led order, and it is gaining traction in the Global South. “There is a sense among developing countries that the international security order isn’t working that well for them,” says USIP’s Carla Freeman. “But none of these countries want to be forced to choose between the U.S. and China.”

After violent protests over his arrest, former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was released over the weekend. However, this latest political crisis isn’t going away soon, says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin : “What we’re headed to is a clash between the very powerful military and the very popular [Khan].”  

Philippine President Marcos’s visit to Washington has helped usher the U.S.-Philippines relationship into “a new renaissance,” says USIP’s Brian Harding . And with growing concerns over Beijing’s influence in the Pacific, “[Marcos] is making a bet that if he deepens this relationship … that is how he’s going to deter China.”

While U.S.-Vietnam relations have progressed remarkably since the end of the Vietnam War, “we talk about reconciliation as a long-term process …  so even though we’re now almost 50 years into the post-war period, that reconciliation process isn’t complete yet,” says USIP’s Andrew Wells-Dang .

As the Sudanese military and Rapid Support Forces continue fighting, the United States needs to avoid getting “caught in the trap that we’re trying to choose one [side] over the other. At the end of the day, there’s a third voice here, and that’s civilians and the Sudanese people,” says USIP’s Susan Stigant.

With both U.S.-China and Taiwan-China relations at low points, the United States needs to maintain unity among its multilateral partnerships, says USIP’s Dean Cheng : “China loves to play bilateral games … because 1.3 billion people in the second largest economy gives them a lot of power and influence.”