NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 9th November NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equity markets have switched from being upbeat about the prospect of an end to China’s zero COVID to being upbeat about the outcome from today’s mid-term elections. NAB’s Ray Attrill also talks about the differences between Australian consumer and business sentiment and why...

Tuesday 8th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We didn’t see the expected turnaround in markets on Monday. Yesterday on the Morning Call we talked about how Chinese officials had denounced speculation that they were heading away from the Zero COVID road soon, so we expected a reversal to some of the optimism in markets...

Monday 7th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It seems likely we’ll see a reversal to some of the positive sentiment on Friday that saw equities and commodity prices rise, driven by the renewed hope that China was moving towards an end to their zero COVID approach. The official word over the weekend was that that was no...

Friday 4th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It could be the worst of times, or something even worse than that. The Bank of England painted two possible scenarios overnight, after raising rates by the expected 75 basis points. In scenario one, the bulk of their work is done and rates don’t move much higher. In scenario...

Thursday 3rd November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Who’d have thought that a fourth 75 basis point hike by the Fed would see equity markets rally and bond yields down? As NAB’s Gavin Friend explains, the bounce didn’t last long, and it was driven by the term ‘cumulative tightening’, which markets took to mean the FOMC comm...

Wednesday 2nd November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA has taken a slow and steady approach to interest rate hikes, so we can expect many more to come. Sally Auld says Governor Lowe said last night that the risks are more two-sided than they were a few months ago, and the bank needs to factor in the risk of the lag. I...

Tuesday 1st November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today is the day of the race that stops the nation, but before the champagne flows there’s an RBA meeting to get through. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the odds are on a 25bp hike today, but the board will be considering last week’s inflation surprise and yesterday’s retail n...

Monday 31st October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB   US equity markets rose sharply on Friday, even though there’s little evidence that inflation is easing or that the Fed will slow down their pace of hikes, despite all the pivot-talk of the last week. This morning NAB’s Rodrigo Catril is asked whether they are too opti...

Friday 28th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB raised rates by 75 basis points as expected, but NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a widespread expectation that central banks will ‘pivot’, and switch away from a path of higher rate rises. We don’ have long to wait to find out with the BoE, RBA and Fed all meeting next wee...

Thursday 27th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of Canada lifted rates by 50 basis points this morning, against expectations of a 75 bp hike. David de Garis says there were cries of ‘Pivot’ amongst the traders at NAB in London, but how far will it stretch. Does it follow that the Fed will follow in Canada’s foo...

Wednesday 26th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets and bonds have both rallied overnight, pushing yields lower again. NAB’s Skye Masters says investors are still hoping that the Fed will slow down the path of rate hikes, although there’s no data top suggest why they should and some commentators suggesting t...

Tuesday 25th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's been a very mixed session depending on vaired geographic circumstances, says NAB’s Taylor Nugent. US equities continue to rally on anticipation of positive earnings results and the hope that the Fed will slow down its pace of hikes. Europe has seen modest gains as gas...

Monday 24th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US finished the week with equities rising and the dollar falling, with the Fed’s Mary Daly hinting that the path of hikes might slow for fear of an ‘unforced downturn’. NAB’s Ray Attrill notes that the Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos suggesting the Fed might well be...

Friday 21st October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK is on the lookout for another Prime Minister after Liz Truss announced her resignation overnight. Her replacement will be found by Friday next week, at the latest, but NAB’s Gavin Friend says there could be a new PM in place as soon as Monday. There wasn’t a massive m...

Thursday 20th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a very mixed day, but generally the reverse of yesterday. The US dollar has gained strength, bond yields have pushed higher and equities have fallen, despite some strong corporate earnings. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says we are back to worrying about inflation and central b...

Wednesday 19th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets have managed to climb again in the US, supported by earnings results, although NAB’s Ray Attrill describes it as a bear rally. There is still plenty of uncertainty around, evidenced by moves in bonds, in all directions. The BoE drove some of the movement wh...

Tuesday 18th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK government decided it couldn’t wait till the end of the month to reverse almost all of their unfunded tax cuts, so they did it yesterday, much to everyone’s surprise. Markets have taken it well, with big falls in bond yields and a rise in Sterling, but as JBWere’s Sa...

Monday 17th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US Treasury yields rose higher still on Friday as markets absorbed Thursday’s inflation print and the expectation of faster hikes and a higher terminal rate from the Fed. Despite the hikes so far, there’s few signs of a slowdown, with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril pointing to Friday’s retai...

Friday 14th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a stormy night, with violent swings in bond yields and US equities. As NAB’s Skye Masters explains, shares plummeting as the higher than expected CPI read but then staged a massive rebound later I the session, fishing markedly higher towards the close. Bond markets r...

Thursday 13th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The BoE has been buying up more bonds to protect pension funds from the volatility of an economy still struggling with the budget presented by the Truss government. But when Andrew Bailey says the help stops on Friday does he really mean it, or will they be back buying bonds next...

Tuesday 12th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of England has been buying up more government bonds as it fights uncertainty in UK markets. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it’s no surprise that they have had to target 30 year inflation-linked bonds, as they constitute a large proportion of the stock held by the pension funds t...

Tuesday 11th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The latest title from to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook is ‘Gloomy and More Uncertain’. That certainly reflects the mood this morning, with risk driven by an escalating war in Ukraine, question marks over whether the UK Chancellor’s budget will pass muster with the markets, and...

Monday 10th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a strong market reaction to non-farm payrolls on Friday, which suggested the US labour market remains tight, with the unemployment rate falling. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it was another of those ‘good news is bad news’ moments, likely to keep the Fed on its hawkish path...

Friday 7th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are still nervous. This morning NAB’s Gavin Friend says hopes of a pivot from the Fed have more or less disappeared, following on from the softer manufacturing numbers earlier in the week. The Fed’s Neal Kashkari said we are quite a way away from a pause in their path of rat...

Thursday 6th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday’s vain hope of a pivot by the Fed, to slow down rate rises after the weaker job openings numbers, were destroyed today by a stronger than expected non-manufacturing ISM read. Not only was the main number higher than anticipated, at 56.7, new orders were strong too. It wa...