NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 5th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s plenty of talk of a Fed pivot according to JBWere’s Sally Auld, but is it an overreaction? The drivers have been the smaller than expected rise by the RBA yesterday and one million less jobs being advertised in the US. Bond yields have fallen and the equity markets a...

Tuesday 4th October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s been a swift change of direction in markets, with bond yields falling and big rises in equities in the US and Europe. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there are several reasons for this reversal in fortune. Part of it is a partial u-turn by the UK chancellor over unfunded tax cu...

Monday 3rd October 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The lasting effect from the UK’s mini-budget kerfuffle has not been the weakness in the pound – that’s bounced back for now – but the rise in bond yields. They are, of course, rising everywhere as central banks find it increasingly hard to fight inflation. The pound might feel some...

Friday 30th September 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Things are calmer in the UK because the Prime Minister has agreed to get the numbers to support last week’s budget. Whilst that’s helped the pound a little, yields continue to rise. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the volatility is far from over in the UK. Elsewhere there’s ri...

Thursday 29th September 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been quite a session in the UK, with the IMF reprimanding the government over it’s budget, and the Bank of England suspending its quantitative tightening, instead switching to buying longer end bonds in a move to protect pension funds. What’s all this doing to the UK’s cre...

Wednesday 28th September 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A rising US dollar, yields pushing higher, equities being sold off, central bankers talking up rates – that’s been business as usual lately. NAB’s Skye Masters says resilience in economic data, particularly for the US, isn’t making the job any easier for central banks, who exp...

Tuesday 27th September 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The pound fell to an all-time low overnight before picking up a little, but still well down on the day as markets react badly to the new UK Chancellor’s mini-budget last week. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the response, which is being driven largely by uncertainty. Gilt yiel...

Monday 26th September 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK budget that wasn’t a real budget, turned out to be more far reaching than most budgets and certainly had far more market impact. On today’s podcast Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill whether the sharp fall in the pound will be retraced this week, particularly as the UK’s governme...

Friday 23rd September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use:  nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide:  nab.co/3rvJtI9 Bond yields continued to rise in the US one day on rom the FOMC meeting. NAB’s Ken Crompton says normally you’d expect to see a bit of a rebound, so this is a sign that the market has accepted that the Fed are determined to keep going, evidenced by the e...

Thursday 22nd September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use:  nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide:  nab.co/3rvJtI9 No surprise, the Fed has lifted rates by 75 basis points. NAB’s Gav Friend says the response in the bond markets was a reaction to the dot plots, which suggest rates will be at 4.4% by the end of the year, 4.6% next year and 3.8% in mid-2024. They all...

Wednesday 21st September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use:  nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide:  nab.co/3rvJtI9 Bond yields have pushed higher in the US and the UK ahead of the Fed and the Bank of England meetings tomorrow. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the expectation is still for a 75 bp hike, although that was the assumption for the Riksbank too, but they lifted...

Tuesday 20th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use:  nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide:  nab.co/3rvJtI9 It was a quiet session overnight with the UK on holiday and a fair bit of attention on a funeral service in London. Nonetheless bond yields continued to push higher. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets have priced in rate rises this week of 80 basis points...

Monday 19th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use:  nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide:  nab.co/3rvJtI9 It’s a confusing week ahead of central bank meetings and public holidays. The Queen’s funeral will attract most attention today, but not on the markets that could see a quiet start to a busy week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’ll add to the volatility this w...

Friday 16th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use:  nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide:  nab.co/3rvJtI9 Front end bond yields pushed higher in the US, as shares fell sharply and oil prices fell. The inversion in the yield curve continues to point to a recession with investors clearly expecting a higher terminal rate by the Fed. NAB’s Gavin Friend says mark...

Thursday 15th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use:  nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide:  nab.co/3rvJtI9 Yesterday, markets responded sharply to the higher-than-expected inflation read from the US. You might have expected a bit of a correction today as markets take stock of the news, but that didn’t really happen. As NAB’s David de Garis points out, there...

Wednesday 14th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use:  nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide:  nab.co/3rvJtI9 Markets were caught off guard by the higher-than-expected inflation rad fom the US. The fall in energy prices has been offset by a broad-based rise across all other sectors. US equities fell heavily, bond yields rose and the US dollar gained significa...

Tuesday 13th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use:  nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide:  nab.co/3rvJtI9 Risk sentiment is improving, with shares up in the US and Europe and the US dollar losing ground to the Euro. Why? It’s a question Phil Dobbie puts to NAB’s Tapas Strickland in today’s Morning Call. The EU has drafted an energy plan that includes a wind...

Monday 12th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use:  nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide:  nab.co/3rvJtI9 Curiously, US shares pushed higher towards the end of last week, even though there is no sign of the central bank slowing down its path of rate rises. Quite the reverse in fact. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says short-selling has been a driving force behind this...

Friday 9th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 Even though a big hike from the Fed is widely anticipated, bond yields continue to move up as Jerome Powell and other speakers talk it up. The moves were even bigger in Europe where an expected 75 basis point hike saw a sharp rise up in 2 year Bund yields. NAB’s Davi...

Thursday 8th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 There were big market moves yesterday and overnight, with sharp drops in oil prices, bond yields falling, a turnaround in US equities and the US dollar gaining some ground, with the Yen falling to its lowest level in 24 years. NAB’s Skye Masters says there wasn’t m...

Wednesday 7th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 There was a strong response to the US Services ISM overnight, which came in stronger than expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says they have raised expectations for a 75bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting, pushing bond yields higher overnight. In the UK Liz Truss is...

Tuesday 6th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 It’s RBA day today. NAB’s Ivan Colhoun talks through what to expect, whilst Ray Attrill looks at the worsening situation in the UK and Europe. Gas prices have risen after the closure of the Nordstream pipeline, and oil prices are also on the rise after OPEC+ agreed...

Monday 5th September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 There was a short-lived burst of positivity on Friday, when USD payrolls numbers delivered a Goldilocks result, with jobs rising, but wage rises easing and more people piling into the jobs markets. The good news was offset by news that Russia will not be reopening th...

Friday 2nd September 2022 View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyyp View our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9 We know the world is in an awkward place, but we keep getting positive data reads, like a strong manufacturing ISM from the US, retail sales picking up in Germany, UK house prices still strong – all the things central banks don’t really want to hear right now. So wha...

Thursday 1st September 2022View our disclaimer and terms of use: nab.co/3shJyypView our NAB Financial Services Guide: nab.co/3rvJtI9Euro area inflation is the highest since the creation of the Euro and NAB’s David de Garis says markets are no pricing in a greater than 50 percent change that the ECB will lift rates by 75 basis points next week. That’s helped support the Euro today, whilst the pound...