NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 14th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI numbers came in lower than anticipated, leading to the inevitable question about whether inflation has peaked, just in time for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting? The market response was swift fall in two-year Treasury yields and a rise in equities, although much of those g...

Tuesday 13th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities have bounced back, but the rise in the VIX index, which measures market volatility, is perhaps a better measure of where we are ahead of the FOMC meeting this week. It’s risen, highlighting uncertainty about how far the US central bank will go. Nick Timira...

Monday 12th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a big week for central banks – the Fed, the BoE and the ECB amongst them. Plus US inflation numbers. There’s some hope that the US will head off a hard landing, with inflation expectations falling in the Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday, although producer p...

Friday 9th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a bit more of a risk-on attitude in the US overnight, with equities rising for the first time in five days. Part of the reason could be a rise in jobless claims. But NAB’s David de Garis says you’d be clutching at straws to assume that means lower inflation and a l...

Thursday 8th December 2022  NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US bond yields fell further overnight as US wages data showed slower growth than anticipated, adding to hopes that the Fed won’t be as aggressive as they’ve been letting on when it comes to future hikes. NAB’s Gavin Friend says that does seem to be the mood of the moment...

Wednesday 7th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US and European equities have taken another hit. NAB’s Ken Crompton says markets continue to respond to the strong jobs data from the US on Friday and what that means for terminal Fed rates. There were no surprises from the RBA yesterday, with NAB’s Ivan Colhoun saying th...

Tuesday 6th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB If you believe the ISM numbers this morning, the US services sector is growing faster than anticipated. Yet the PMI measure, supposedly monitoring exactly the same activity, showed the sector is slowing. So, who do you believe? NAB’s Tapas Strickland says markets were takin...

Monday 5th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US non-farms payrolls numbers on Friday were an upside surprise for the number of jobs created and the increase in wages – both factors the Fed has been trying to control. Is the policy working? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says markets have responded with the expectation of...

Friday 2nd December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have not significantly retraced their moves after Jerome Powell’s speech yesterday. Equities have rebounded only slightly and bond yields have continued to fall. On today’s podcast NAB’s Tapas Strickland outlines why his speech created a more positive risk outlook. T...

Thursday 1st December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a busy session, with NAB’s Taylor Nugent claiming Jerome Powell’s speech this morning was slightly less hawkish than markets were expecting. But the Fed chair still talked about there being a way to go to fight inflation and the need for sustained evidence of fal...

Wednesday 30th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Aussie dollar has benefited from a reversal in concerns over China. NAB’s Ray Attrill says an announcement of a more intense vaccination program for older people has markets assuming a recovery in the Chinese economy early next year. Germany’s inflation numbers came...

Tuesday 29th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB China is losing out on two fronts. It can’t keep its COVID numbers down and now its facing protests in major cities, which could add to the slowdown in the Chinese economy and, as JBWere’s Sally Auld suggests, it could delay the speed of the global recovery. We’ve alr...

Monday 28th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Unrest is growing in China over the zero COVID policy, with protests over the weekend in Shanghai following deaths from an apartment fire, supposedly locked down. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we’ve already seen a response to this news with a fall in the Australian dollar as th...

Friday 25th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As you might expect, with Thanksgiving still going on in the US and everyone else watching the world cup it’s been a quiet session overnight. Still. NAB’s David de Garis joins in today to talk through the ECB minutes, Germany’s IFO numbers, the Riksbank’s interest rate deci...

Thursday 24th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s a higher risk appetite again this morning, driven by the release of the FOMC minutes which NAB’s Gavin Friend says more or less confirmed that the Fed will lift rates by 50 bps at the December meeting. Before that, the response was to mixed data, with PMIs weaker...

Wednesday 23rd November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB America will be sitting down to a Turkey dinner tomorrow, but before that markets seem to be determined to spread hope of a pivot from the Fed – or at the very least a slowdown in rates. That’s helped equities overnight and whilst treasury yields are falling. NAB’s Skye...

Markets are still concerned about lockdowns in China, evidenced by the fall in US equities and a 2% drop in Apple’s share price. Oil has also been falling, but NAB’s Ray Attrill says the prospect of an increase in production by OPEC+ next month pushed prices lower for a while before people started asking, ‘why would they do that?’. The argument was it was to compensate for lost Russian oil as sanc...

Monday 21st November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Friday was unusually quiet, with no big data releases and not much movement in markets. As NAB’s Tapas Strickland observes, the most significant move was the reversal in short-end yields, taking the 2-10 yield spread to minus 70bps, the highest negative spread in over forty...

Friday 18th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Another 32 thousand Australians had a job in October, making the labour market the tightest it’s been in decades. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this cements in the expectation that the RBA will lift rates by at least 25 basis points in December, continuing on in the first meeting...

Thursday 17th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Thankfully, World War 3 wasn’t started by that missile strike on Poland. Now markets are back to betting on how far the Fed will go, rather than NATO. As NAB’S Gavin Friend discusses yesterday’s US retail numbers shows greater resilience than anticipated, adding to the wo...

Wednesday 16th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Just as we pressed the record button on this morning’s podcast news broke that Russia had fired missiles into Poland, a NATO m ember. As JBWere’s Sally Auld explains, until that point market sentiment had been very positive, as producer prices in the US eased, adding to...

Tuesday 15th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB After the ebullient mood at the end of last week markets retraced their steps a little today, with shares on the rise and the US dollar regaining territory. NAB’s Rodrigo says Fed speakers, in particular Waller, have reminded the market that they will continue to lift rate...

Monday 14th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a trifecta of good news at the end of last week that sent equities rising, bond yields falling, commodities looking up and a chance for other currencies to gain on the US dollar at last. But will it last? That’s a question put to NAB’s Ray Attrill on this mor...

Friday 11th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US core inflation dropped to 6.3% in October, below expectations and down from 6.6% in September. NAB’s David de Garis joins Phil to talk through the market reaction, which has seen stocks soar, bond yields fall and the US dollar taking a big hit. Does this mean inflation ha...

Thursday 10th November 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s inflation day. The CPI print is out from the US late tonight Australia time. On today’s podcast NAB’s David de Garis talks about the impact if the number is a little higher than expected. The Fed’s John Williams said overnight that the news for the US is “mostly good”...