NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 8th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t too much new from Jerome Powell when he was interviewed by the Wall Street Journal’s David Rubenstein, but that didn’t stop a rally in bonds for a short spell. It was followed by a swift reversal, perhaps on the realisation that he hadn’t actually offered any...

Tuesday 7th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have had a chance to digest last Friday’s US jobs numbers and are clearly expecting a more hawkish stance by the Fed. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks about the potential for a higher terminal rate from the Fed and a more aggressive stance by the RBA. The expectation is th...

Monday 6th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US payrolls numbers on Friday showed strong jobs growth, which surprised markets pushing bond yields higher and weakening the US dollar. And NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the ISM Services number adding to the view that the Fed might have to do more to contain US inflation....

Friday 3rd February 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Three central banks have tried to sound hawkish this week, as they lift rates at levels already anticipated by the markets. But does the market believe them? That’s a question put to NAB’s Gavin Friend today, as US share prices rise and bond markets rally. It seems, despite...

Thursday 2nd February 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB In the US the Fed has announced the expected 25 basis point rate hike, but this year’s prevalent hope of a soft landing seems to have diminished somewhat. The US ISM manufacturing number was lower than expected, whilst the ADP employment numbers showed less jobs, alongside...

Wednesday 1st February 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are less than a day away from the next FOMC meeting, with the strong expectation that rates will rise in the US by 25 basis points. But in light of recent data suggesting inflation could be slowing, including last night’s wage price index, NAB’s Skye Masters says there...

Tuesday 31st January 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Spain’s inflation numbers provided an unpleasant surprise – core inflation has risen to 7.5%. Meanwhile Germany saw GDP fall in Q4 (QonQ). If these numbers are mirrored across Europe the cocktail of rising inflation and falling output is a challenging one for the ECB. NAB’s...

Monday 30th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's a busy week ahead for central banks, with the Fed, BoE and ECB all meeting to push their rates higher. To add to the potential volatility there’s a swag of high profile corporate earnings results in the US too. But tech stocks have been pushing higher and higher so far...

Friday 27th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A strong GDP read from the US, together with with falling prices, provided grounds for optimism in markets overnight, particularly equities that were buoyed also by a strong earnings result from Tesla. But NAB’s David de Garis says it’s not all good news. Investment in equip...

Wednesday 25th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US shares have been shaky overnight, in the runup to earnings results and on the back of mixed economic data. JB Were’s Sally Auld discusses the latest PMI data, which again shows a recession risk for the US, more hope for Europe and a dismal outlook for the UK. The NAB B...

Tuesday 24th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was lighter trade overnight, with little in the way of news and China on holiday. The Aussie dollar was the standout performer in currencies, with NAB’s David de Garis suggesting this reflects the optimistic tone, reflected in US equities, with a substantial rise in t...

Monday 23rd January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As we enter the Year of the Rabbit the big question is, how big will the bounce back be in China? Could it push commodity prices higher and delay the slowdown in global inflation, as suggested by EBC’S Christine Lagarde on Friday? As NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, this is a b...

Friday January 20th 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a strong response to the lower-than-expected employment numbers yesterday, with 10 year bond yields falling more than 20 basis points. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this was an overreaction, because unemployment remains low and it won’t allay any of the RBA’s concerns ab...

Thursday 19th January 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed sharply lower overnight, despite weaker data that some could argue would support a pause in Fed rate hikes. But, as NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, central bank speakers are arguing that there will be no deviation from earlier guidance. That’s the view in...

Wednesday 18th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB European equities rose overnight with the ZEW survey of analysts suggesting a more positive outlook and reports that the ECB might slow down its path of hikes. That’s in contrast to the US where the NY Empire State Manufacturing index came in much lower than expected, rep...

Tuersday 17th January 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of Japan meets tomorrow with a question mark over the action they’ll take, if any. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there will be some changes as the bank faces the potential risk of increasing inflation. The Bank of England will be eyeing up UK employment data today, with...

Monday 16th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a quiet start to the week, but markets in the US finished last week assuming that inflation has peaked and the Fed will go no further than a couple of 25 basis point hikes. The increasing expectation is that the US will weather the inflation curse without going into rec...

Friday 13th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As expected, US inflation numbers have lowered, but Fed speakers have been quick to point out that there’s still more work to be done, with further hikes, even if 50 or 75 basis point rises are not on the cards. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the market response and ex...

Thursday 12th January 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation numbers are out today and the expectation is that they will fall. The markets, it seems, have already decided that inflation has peaked. Today on the podcast we ask, are we over the worst of it? In Australia hard times haven’t really started. NAB’s David de Ga...

Wednesday 11th January 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The year has started on a fairly optimistic tone, with US bond yields falling on expectations that the Fed might have to do less, leading to a fall in the US dollar. As NAB’s Ray Attrill explains, the major beneficiary of all this has been the Aussie dollar, up 1.3% so fa...

Wednesday 21st December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of Japan has broadened the tolerance for its yield control curve target. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it surprised markets because Governor Kuroda had previously stated they wouldn’t be doing that. So, why the change and why has it had such an impact on global bond an...

Tuesday 20th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There are only five sleeps to Christmas, but central banks are still cramming in what they can to position markets for the start of 2023. The ECB is ramping up its hawkish messaging, whilst the Fed continues to deny that they will start reversing rates next year, even...

Monday 19th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t much risk appetite at the end of the week, after a hawkish Fed and the same from the ECB. It still seems markets doubt the Fed will go all the way to 5.1% and are looking for reasons to assume they will relent earlier. NAB’s Skye Masters says the inversion in t...

Friday 16th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As the UK and Europe weather a cold snap, central banks are heating up their rhetoric as the fight to cool inflation. On today’s podcast JBWere’s Sally Auld discusses the unexpectedly hawkish stance taken by the ECB, suggesting it was possibly a trade-off from pushing rates...

Thursday 15th December 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets weren’t surprised by the FOMC raising rates by 50 basis points this morning – a unanimous decision by the board. But members are more divided on where to go next, with the Fed now predicting a median rate of 5.1 percent by the end of next year, even with talk of i...