NAB Morning Call

Wednesday 15th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is it crisis over. As CPI numbers came out in the US showing the Fed still had more work to do, it seems the focus shifting back onto rate hikes and away from major concerns about bank stability. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it’s not a total retreat. After yesterday’s CPI an...

Tuesday 14th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Just after Janet Yellen said there would be no bailout for SVB the US financial regulators stepped in promising that no depositor would be out of pocket. Good news for companies left exposed, but its done little to calm the markets with bond yields falling further and some an...

Monday 13th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The collapse of SVB on Friday created turmoil in the markets. Bond yields fell across the board, but particularly at the front end of the yield curve. Equities were also hit and the US dollar took a hit, with the uncertainty meaning the Aussie didn’t benefit from the fall. So...

Friday 10th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are clearly preparing for a fall in payrolls numbers tonight, with bond yields falling markedly in the US and the dollar notably weaker. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets have been influenced by the weekly jobless claims, which rose a little, and the Challenger jobs...

Thursday 9th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s a lot of water between where Jerome Powell sees the Fed heading and how Philip Lowe is seeing things from the RBA’s viewpoint. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s been no market retreat from yesterday’s positions, when we saw the US dollar rise, Aussie dollar fal...

Wednesday 8th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Big market moves overnight thanks to a slightly less hawkish RBA yesterday and a more hawkish sounding Jerome Powell in front of a US senate committee. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the RBA is still committed to further tightening but raised the potential for a pause in hikes, a...

Tuesday 7th March 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian bond yields fell sharply yesterday ahead of the RBA meeting today. NAB’s Skye Masters says this shows there’s an expectation that the central bank will pause after today’s rate hike and we can expect some repricing in bonds if they instead signal a series of consecu...

Monday 6th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As NAB’s Ray Attrill puts it on this morning’s podcast, three central banks, two days of testimony from Jerome Powell,. Topped off by US payrolls numbers – what’s not to like. Provided you thrive on volatility, of course, because any of those events has the power to change the...

Friday 3rd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Having pushed above 4 percent, US 10 year Treasury yields lurched higher still overnight, with yields up in Europe too and a sharper rise in Australian 10 year yields. NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are responding to the revised Q4 numbers of US labour costs and productivity. M...

Thursday 2nd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a session of mixed news overnight. US 10 year treasury yields have hit 4 percent as expectations continue to mount for higher rates for longer. In China the PMIs came in higher than expected. NAB’s Ken Crompton says we are seeing the same picture we saw in western e...

Wednesday 1st March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s a growing concern that inflation is creeping back into Europe. That’s the case in France and Spain, with Germany’s CPI numbers out today and the Euro Area inflation print tomorrow. NAB’s Gavin Friend says markets are already pricing in a higher terminal rate, with th...

Tuesday 28th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The pound rose sharply higher today on the news that a deal had been struck with the EU over the problems of the UK’s internal trade with Northern Ireland. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets have responded to the pragmatism of Rishi Sunak and the hope that it signals the sta...

Monday 27th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were shaken on Friday when the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – the core PCE deflator – showed an unexpected bounce back. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it was one of a series of strong numbers at the end of last week, and talks through the implications for the Fed...

Friday 24th February 2023  NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US GDP has been revised down slightly for Q4. NAB’s Ken Crompton says its been driven by lower than expected consumption numbers. The Fed will also be concerned by the quarterly GDP deflator, which has shown prices rising more than anticipated. Eyes will be on the January...

Thursday 23rd February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s not a lot that’s new on the FOMC minutes out this morning, according to NAB’s David de Garis. Several members had talked of higher rate rises, but there wasn’t much too much for investors to change the expected path of hikes this year. But it might be a different...

Wednesday 22nd February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The latest PMI data has shown more resilience in the global economy, with service sector reads significantly exceeding expectations in Europe, the UK and the United States. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about how this will impact central bank decisions, with bond yields risin...

Tuesday 21st February 2023  NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With the US equity and bond markets closed for President’s Day, trade was thin today and movement was slight. But, with the President choosing to spend his day in Ukraine and China reportedly ready to supply arms to Russia, could a bounce back in world trade be an optimi...

Monday 20th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Expect a quiet trading day today with the US enjoying Presidents Day and not much in the way of data releases. Still, as NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out, there’s plenty to look out for later in the week, including the RBNZ’s expected 50 bp rate hike, January’s global PMI...

Friday 17th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US Treasury yields pushed higher overnight as producer prices came in with a surprise month on month rise, whilst weekly jobs data shows only slight moves in the easing of the labour market. NAB’s Ken Crompton says there’s nothing to distract from the hawkish path being tak...

Thursday 16th February 2023  NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US retail numbers for January were strong yesterday, giving no reason for markets to assume the Fed will move from its expected path of hikes following non-farm payrolls earlier in the month. At the same time industrial production was down, but the Empire State manufact...

Wednesday 15th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation was shown to be moving down slower than many had hoped, sending bond yields higher. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it cements in expectations for two more 25 basis point rate hikes in March and May. NAB has also announced a revised rates call for the RBA, which is...

Tuesday 14th Februarey 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI is released later today and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we can expect a market reaction whichever way it comes out. Certainly, markets are divided, with bond yields rising today suggesting rising expectations for central bank hikes, whereas equities are also up sugge...

Monday 13th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields continue to rise as expectations heighten just about everywhere that central banks will push faster and further on rates. As NAB’s Skye Masters discusses today on the podcast, this hawkish sentiment wasn’t helped by employment numbers for Canada on Friday which,...

Friday 10th February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The 2s10s curve inversion increased further today, now the most inverted since 1981. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the blowout jobs numbers and ISM services read were a shot across the bows last week that is still reverberating in the markets. In the UK though, Bank of England me...

Thursday 9th February 2022 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been quiet overnight news-wise, but a session rich with central bank speakers. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the main news came out of the ECB, where a 50 basis point hike at the next meeting seems nailed on, with talk now of another 50 possible in the May meeting as well. I...