NAB Morning Call

Friday 21st April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s definitely a more sombre mood this morning, with equities falling in the US and Europe. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton how much is this down to Tesla’s price cutting, and the need for a squeeze in margins to maintain demand. Yields are also down, with softer employment,...

Thursday 20th April 2022  NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The UK’s inflation numbers were an unwelcome surprise yesterday, with the headline rate remaining in double digits, at 10.1%. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there are now expectations for three more hikes from the Bank of England, which has seen bond yields rising sharply. Other a...

Wednesday 19th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Freedom has turned into a shopping frenzy in China, but it’s not reflected in capex or industrial production. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether this retail growth will be short lived and, if not, could it be inflationary? Meanwhile, inflation remains stubborn in Cana...

Tuesday 18th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a quiet session overnight with US equities struggling to get into the green until the very last gasp and bond yields pushing higher. NAB’s David de Garis says there will have been some encouragement from the Empire Manufacturing Index which moved from minus 24.6 to a p...

Monday 17th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There remains some confusion over how far and fast central banks will move, as banking concerns subside. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent discusses today, the Fed is sending very mixed messages, with Christopher Waller suggesting the fight against inflation has only seen sideways moves...

Friday 14th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday we saw a surprise increase in the number of Australians working last month. So, does that mean a greater likelihood of more hikes form the RBA? Certainly a higher Aussie dollar and rising bond yields are suggesting that. It’s a question put to NAB’s David de Garis. T...

Thursday 13th April 2023  NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The headline rate for US inflation fell and for a moment bond yield showed significant falls. But, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent explains, the core readings were less hopeful. It wasn’t long after the release that the Fed’s Thomas Barkin reiterated the need to do more to get infl...

Wednesday 12th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There will be a lot of focus on the US CPI number tonight, with an expected fall in the headline rate. There could be quite a market response if there are signs that inflation hasn’t peaked. NAB’s Skye asters believes markets still have unrealistically high expectations of...

Tuesday 11th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s the start of a what could be a volatile short week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it seems markets have taken the non-farm payrolls at face value, seeing no dramatic fall in jobs as a sign that the Fed will stick with its hawkish tilt. But the weekly jobless claims have be...

Thursday 6th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t anything subtle about the RBNZ rate move yesterday, so why the sharp contrast with the action – or lack of it- taken by the RBA this week. NAB’s David de Garis looks at potential reasons, and helps to dissect Philip Lowe’s Press Club lunch speech yesterday. Also,...

Wednesday 5th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We’re not afraid to admit we got it wrong on the RBA, who kept rates on hold yesterday. Unlike a certain US President we are prepared to plead guilty as charged. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril explains why the bank didn’t move and looks ahead to the next meeting and beyond. Meanwhile,...

Tuesday 4th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil prices are up on the back of the OPEC+ cuts announced yesterday. That pushed bond yields a little higher. JB Were’s Sally Auld days rising prices could be problematic for central banks if they keep rising, but there current level is unlikely to have much impact. In fact, y...

Monday 3rd April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation is showing signs of slowing in the US, with a lower than expected Core PCE deflator read on Friday. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says this was the primary reason for a fall in bond yields on Friday. But models pointing to lower headline inflation driven by lower energy cost...

Friday 31st March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US banking stocks took a hit overnight as central bankers warned of a credit crunch and Joe Biden called for reforms to regulations. Other shares rose though, even though weekly job numbers showed continued labour market tightness. In Australia job vacancies have fallen a litt...

Thursday 30th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were calm overnight, but NAB’s David de Garis says that doesn’t translate to confidence. The market is still wondering what is round the corner, but he points out that a lot of the concern has been contained within the US. Meanwhile inflation in Australia came in low...

Wednesday 29th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t much happening yesterday and overnight, so markets were relatively calm. The US senate banking committee quizzed the regulator over banking collapses and perhaps reassured markets that the future looked more peaceful. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says we can’t assum...

Tuesday 28th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Banking fears have subsided somewhat overnight, with a buyer found for Silicon Valley Bank and less concern, for whatever reason, over Deutsche Bank. Hence, equities have risen and so have bond yields, as focus returns on how far central banks will go. Quite a bit further if...

Monday 27th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Uncertainty returned to markets on Friday. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says concerns over Deutsche Bank was the source of volatility for equity markets in Europe and in early trade in the US. It’s not clear whether there is anything to be concerned about - Olaf Schulz, the German Cha...

Friday 24th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Three more hikes in a day. Even though we reckoned yesterday that the Bank of England wouldn’t do it, overnight they did lift rates. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there is no hiding from a rising inflation rate, even if it proves to be a temporary blip in a more gradual move down,...

Thursday 23rd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As envisaged, the FOMC meeting has agreed to a 25bp rate hike in the US, with Jerome Powell indicating there is more to come. But, as discussed with NAB’s Gavin Friend, the Fed chair has suggested that it’s possible that credit tightening from banks, after the recent turmoil...

Wednesday 22nd March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets seem to have cast off concerns about banking risk contagion. NAB’s Skye Masters says market confidence has been helped by reassurances from Janet Yellen that the US federal government is “resolutely committed” to mitigating financial stability risks. Authorities are...

Tuesday 21st March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were relatively calm on the first day after the announcement of the Credit Suisse-UBS deal. One risk of contagion was in the AT1 (addition tier one) bond markets, as Credit Suisse wrote their $17 billion value down to zero, leaving bondholders with nothing. NAB’s Tayl...

Monday 20th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A deal was struck over the weekend that sees UBS buying Credit Suisse for US$2billion, a fraction of it’s value at Friday’s close. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks about the consequences of this arrangement and the ongoing uncertainty in the US regional banking sector. Could this mean...

Friday 17th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Whilst money is being poured in to solve liquidity issues at Credit Suisse, the ECB has been keen to stay on track with a 50bp rate hike yesterday. It’s been suggested that anything less would have been seen as a sign of bigger troubles and spread panic in a nervous market. He...

Thursday 16th March 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Another day, another banking crisis. This time it’s Credit Suisse causing problems, somewhat bigger than SVB, but it’s hard to understand the fundamental reason for the concern, other than blind panic and a bank that has seen massive capital outflows last year. NAB’s Ken Cro...