NAB Morning Call

Monday 29th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Democrats and Republicans reckon they have struck a deal over the US debt ceiling, which involves no growth in non-military government spending next year. The deal, could be voted on as soon as Wednesday, just in the nick of time, although as NAB’s Taylor Nugent pints out, J...

Friday 26th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There is still no resolution on the US debt ceiling. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about where markets go from here. Right now, it doesn’t seem to be worrying US equity markets, which have jumped on the forecasts from NVIDIA of am AI-led recovery in chip demands, pushing the company...

Thursday 25th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB McCarthy and Biden finished their four hour talks on Wednesday with no resolution on the debt ceiling. Their division over spending continues to concern markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill looks at the market response, with a deal needed by the end of the week to allow time for the leg...

Monday 24th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s still no resolution on the USD Debt Ceiling. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says expectations are that a deal will be found in time, but markets are getting nervous, with falls in equities across the board (except energy). Inflation concerns continue to mount up, with the latest PM...

Tuesday 23rd May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB If you look at Kevin McCarthy’s twitter feed you’d assume he is taking a very defiant stand against the Biden administration when it comes to movement on the US debt ceiling. But JBWere’s Sally Auld says that reflects the stakeholders he has to pacify, and you’d hope he’d be mo...

Monday 22nd May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are distinctly uneasy at the start of the week, as the Republicans and Democrats are sticking to their entrenched position in US debt ceiling talks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s a sharp contrast to the upbeat tone on Thursday, so we can expect a large amount of volatil...

Friday 19th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are buoyed this morning by comments from US Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy that he sees a path towards a deal with the Democrats over the US debt ceiling. That’s pushed equities and bond yields higher. NAB’s Ken Crompton says it would be premature to suggest tha...

Thursday 18th may 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have chosen to be optimistic over the US debt ceiling today, with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, saying a compromise was “doable”, maybe as soon as this week. And, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, Joe Biden is also positive, and the negotiating team has been reduc...

Wednesday 17th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a finely balanced decision by the RBA to lift rates at the last meeting, with the bank now saying they are focusing on productivity and wages. As JBWere’s Sally Auld discusses today, they don’t have to wait long for the next set of quarterly wages data out today – but...

Tuesday 16th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is the US careering towards a debt default? There’s only a couple of weeks until the point at which Janet Yellen has warned the US government could run out of money. But Biden and McCarthy are talking, so there is hope of a resolution. But NAB’s Skye Masters says its drawing a...

Monday 15th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was further nervousness in the markets at the end of last week. NAB’s Ray Attrill says a chunk of it came from the University of Michigan’s survey, which saw consumers raising the level they expected inflation to be at in five years’ time. It seemed an oversized response t...

Friday 12th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The BoE has raised rates (not a unanimous decision), but they are also expecting a bit more growth in the economy. We’ll see how that’s tracking with UK GDP numbers out today. NAB’s Gavin Friend says this could be the last one from the BoE, but it really depends on the UK inflat...

Thursday 11th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI has come in pretty much as expected, and yet we’ve seen falls in bond yields and increased talk of a Fed pause and rate cuts later in the year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was no doubt relief that the number didn’t go up. We’re heading in the right direction, albeit at...

Wednesday 10th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Australia federal budget last night didn’t contain any surprises. As NAB’s David de Garis explains, it’s clear that Australia’s fiscal position is better than most, but that doesn’t mean inflation is under control. In the US the fiscal position is a particular worry as th...

Tuesday 9th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields continued to rise yesterday and overnight as markets seem to accept a more for longer approach from central banks. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Business Survey yesterday showed that there was a fall in retail prices and final product prices, suggesting, perhaps, tha...

Monday 8th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A surprise increase in US jobs on Friday but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it probably won’t have scuppered expectations for a pause by the FOMC, unless there’s an unpleasant surprise in US inflation numbers this week. The question is, how much of the work of the Fed will now be do...

Friday 5th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB has lifted rates by 25 basis points and the expectation that there is more to come. NAB’s David de Garis said Christine Lagarde did raise concerns about credit tightening, but there was no suggestion of how that would change the rate path for the bank. Meanwhile, PacWest...

Wednesday 4th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC has met, lifted rates and there are suggestions of a pause. NAB’s Gavin Friend says its all down the removal of one the line from the policy statement: “some additional policy increases might be appropriate”. With that gone there was an immediate assumption that the F...

Wednesday 3rd May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA’s decision to lift rates seems to have kicked off a turbulent period on global markets. The US kicked off with big drops in oil prices, plunging share prices and rising bond yields. Not because eof the RBA. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks us through the uncertainty in the...

Tuesday 2nd May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets seemed unperturbed by the demise of another US commercial bank. NAB’s Skye Masters says the mood in bond markets is risk positive, perhaps because the FDIOC stepped in and negotiated a sale to JP Morgan. Markets were also influenced by the US ISM manufacturing read, whic...

Monday 1st May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a big week for central banks, with the ECB and FOMC expected to lift rates. The US employment cost index and PCI deflator on Friday showed that prices in the US are taking a while to moderate. In Europe GDP numbers showed the economy is starting to slow, but the market still...

Friday 28th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Today NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the latest GDP numbers from the US, reinforcing signs that the economy is slowing. But markets preferred to focus on the PCE read, showing prices are still rising, and the latest jobless claims which demonstrate how the labou...

Thursday 27th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US share market is split between tech majors, doing well on the back of strong earnings (Meta is the latest on that front) and financials (and the rest) hit by banking uncertainty and recession fears. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s no evidence of systemic risk in the...

Wednesday 26th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Equity markets took a hit after yesterday’s earnings results from First Republic Bank. JBWere’s Sally Auld says most of the movement overnight can be put down to the uncertainty this has created. The expectation that bank uncertainty had disappeared after just a few days wa...

Monday 24th April 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Should we ignore the technical indicators? A recession seems even less likely after stronger than expected PMIs for the US and Europe on Friday. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland how central banks will respond to this, particularly if we see resilient employment costs and stron...