NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 4th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA meets today. Thank goodness, otherwise it would be a desperately quiet day ahead, with the US on holiday with markets having closed early afternoon on Monday. Data on both sides of the Atlantic pointed to a manufacturing slowdown. The US ISM came in lower than expected...

Monday 3rd July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Consumption data and the core-PCE inflation read both came in softer than expected on Friday, after a spate of stronger than expected economic data for the US. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says there’s not enough in these numbers for the Fed to change its current hawkish path, and marke...

Friday 30th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The resilience in the US economy is not giving in. Q1 GDP was revised up, showing 2 percent growth QonQ, whilst consumer spending was up 4.2% on the quarter. NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, Q1 was a while ago now, and everyone knew it was a strong quarter. Yet a fall in jobless...

Thursday 29th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Big fall in the Aussie and Kiwi dollars yesterday and overnight. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the fall in the Aussie was a combination of the falling CNY and the fall in Australian CPI yesterday, although he cautions into getting too hopeful on the inflation read. At Sintra ce...

Wednesday 28th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was strong data from the US overnight, with a lift in durable goods orders, housing sales rising and consumer confidence also strong. NAB’s Skye Masters says the Fed won’t take any delight in these numbers so late in their tightening cycle. Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde...

Tuesday 27th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We saw no response on the markets to the attempted Russian rebellion, instead all eyes are on Sintra in Portugal, where some of the world’s leading central bankers meet for a chinwag. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we are bound to get something out of it, particularly with Governor Ue...

Monday 26th June 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields fell on Friday as PMI reads came in softer than expected. As well as further falls in manufacturing, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, the outperformance of services has weakened, particularly in Europe where the Services PMI in France fell into contraction territo...

Friday 23rd June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of England and the Norges Bank both surprised markets, each raising interest rates by 50 basis points. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the mix of higher UK earnings and stubborn inflation numbers yesterday combined to drive this bigger than expected move. The question is, how...

Thursday 22nd June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB At his testimony to the House Finance Committee overnight Jerome Powell suggested two more rate hikes would be a “pretty good guess”. But, as NAB’s Taylor Nugent points out, markets haven’t even fully priced in one more hike for the remainder of this year, so they clearly don...

Wednesday 21st June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Aussie dollar has dipped to 67.8 us cents this morning. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says its in part because of the China slowdown story, but also the RBA minutes which were more dovish than expected? Does this mean a pause is more likely, or will recent data suggest otherwis...

Tuesday 20th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB We are a couple of days out from the next Bank of England meeting, where a rate hike of at least 25bp is expected, with more to come – but could it be 50? So, is there a danger of doing too much? Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters whether the aggressive signalling from central banks...

Monday 19th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With the US on holiday, very little new data and not much out on Friday, today should be a very quiet day. But, as NAB’s Ray Attrill suggests, that doesn’t mean there won ‘t be fireworks later. Jerome Powell fronts up to two days of testimony, and the Bank of England will lift...

Friday 16th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The ECB hit expectations with their rate rise overnight, says NAB’s Ken Crompton. Markets have responded to Christine Lagarde’s clear expectation that there will be another rise at the next meeting. So, we have a slowing economy (technically in recession) with a central bank li...

Thursday 15th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Few will have been surprised by the decision of the FOMC to pause interest rates, after 10 successive hikes. But they have also signalled that rates could rise as much as 50 basis points, with one member wanting to see rates go over 6 percent. JBWere’s Sally Auld talks to Phi...

Wednesday 14th JUne 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The CPI numbers from the US yesterday showed core inflation is roughly in-line with expectations, raising hopes that the FOMC will pause rates at their meeting on Thursday. Shares are higher in anticipation. It’s a different story in the UK tough, where a tight labour market...

Tuesday 13th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s a busy week ahead, with the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan all meeting, and not a clear picture of what any will do in terms of rate rises. The Fed’s decision might be partially impacted by US CPI numbers out today. NAB’s David de Garis says there is talk of a skip, rath...

Friday 9th JUne 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar has fallen a fair bit, with bond yields down and equities boosted, following a higher than expected jobless claims number in the US. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the markets are reversing some of the early responses to the double shock of rate rises by the RBA and the B...

Thursday 8th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Hot on the heels of the RBA, the Bank of Canada also lifted interest rates yesterday against market expectations. JB Were’s Sally Auld says markets are having to adjust to the new reality, that central banks aren’t done yet. That’s certainly been reflected in bond yields, risi...

Wednesday 7th JUne 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA lifted interest rates yesterday, against the prevalent market expectation. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it was always a question of “when and not if”, but now there are expectations of at least one follow-up hike at some point this year. The reason, obviously is the centr...

Tuesday 6th June 2023  NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's a line-ball call, says NAB’s Ray Attrill, as to whether the RBA will lift rates or not today. Markets have priced in a follow-up to the May rise, the question is whether it happens today or in a subsequent meeting. We look at the scenarios on today’s podcast. Plus, a wea...

Monday 5th June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With debt ceiling concerns taken away, its back to worrying about inflation and wondering how far central banks will push. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s still likely thew RBA will pause tomorrow, but a higher-than-expected rise in award wages in Australia on Friday have increas...

Friday 2nd June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's surprising that the markets have reacted so sharply to the passage of the debt ceiling bill. NAB’s David de Garis says there was always an outside chance something would go awry, but it’s already passed through the House and should clear the Senate today. Now the focus is o...

Thursday 1st June 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Aussie dollar has fallen further on the back of weaker than expected PMI data from China. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it adds to the view that the post-COID recovery is losing momentum. Australia was also hit with higher-than-expected inflation numbers yesterday, which has adde...

Wednesday 31st May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Once it’s over the hurdle of the US House Rules Committee, which is happening right now. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the feeling is that will pass easily and sets the scene for the vote in the House tomorrow. But many of the market moves are more to do with concerns of an econo...

Tuesday 30th May 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The timetable to sign off the agreement to raise the US debt ceiling is very tight. Does it matter if it’s a day or two late? "Not really", says NAB’s Tapas Strickland in today’s podcast, although it might make the markets nervous for a while. A bigger question is what happens...