NAB Morning Call

Monday 7th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Last week we did suggest there would be a response to Friday’s US payrolls numbers come what may, and that was certainly the case. Softer numbers and downward revisions saw bond yields retrace their steps on last week’s gains, as investors bet on less in the way of rate hikes....

Friday 4th August 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Figures this week from Core Logic show that house prices in Australia continue to rise – five straight months now – but the speed is slowing. Bounce backs invariably have gone further than the prior downturn, but maybe that won’t happen...

Friday 4th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed higher in this session, with equities left going nowhere, at least until after hours trading with a couple of significant earnings results – Apple and Amazon. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the bond sell-off is a conflation of several factors, including this week’...

Thursday 3rd August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US ten-year Treasuries hit a fresh high for the year. The downgrading of the US credit rating by Fitch had a little to do with it. The ADP employment numbers also drove yields higher, but NAB’s David de Garis says it is likely the numbers ere a big overstatement, hence yield...

Wednesday 2nd August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the Aussie dollar has been pulled down by three factors. First, the RBA decision to hold. Although most expected it, there was some pricing for a rise that didn’t materialise. Secondly, the US dollar is higher, on further hopes of a soft landing. U...

Tuesday 1st August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Yen is back where it was a week ago, despite all the excitement towards the end of last week. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it's clear the BoJ didn’t want yields to rise too quickly and intervened to stop a sudden rise to 1%. Bond markets are suddenly less excited, so yield...

Monday 31st July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bonds markets led moves in currency markets on Thursday on news of changes to Japan’s yield curve control. A lot of those changes were retraced on Friday, o the back of softer inflation numbers for Europe and the US. So, what exactly happened? NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through ho...

Friday 28th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Currency markets were particularly choppy overnight. NAB’s David de Garis says the moves were driven by the stronger than expected GDP read from the USD, which saw the US dollar much higher, pushing other major currencies – except the Yen – much lower. There was less of a respo...

Thursday 27th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC lifted interest rates by 25bp as expected, and the ECB is expected to do the same tonight. But in each case, it’s unclear where the central banks go next. But NAB’s Ken Crompton says the RBA is unlikely to lift rates next week, given the softer than expected Australi...

Wednesday 26th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a more substantial build in the Aussie rally yesterday, says NAB’s Ray Attrill which built further overnight. The reason, China, with the Politburo making announcements that suggest they are serious about stepping up macro policy support after the weak Q2 GDP numbe...

Tuesday 25th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are still expecting that the Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle, with equity markets continuing to push higher today. But what if the Fed sounds particularly hawkish this week? And what if the plethora of big tech earnings results come in much weaker than expe...

Monday 24th July 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC, the ECB and Bank of Japan all meet this week. No change of direction is expected from the Bank of Japan despite their sticky core CPI number last week. The FOMC and ECB are both expected to lift rates, but does it end there? That’s a question put to NAB’s Rodrigo Catr...

Friday 21st July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are back to worrying about jobs data, it seems. Aussie yields rose after yesterday’s much stronger than expected employment numbers. The Aussie dollar is higher, even against a rising US dollar, which is also in part down to job concerns after a fall in unemployment cla...

Thursday 20th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were buoyed a little further on the back of UK CPI numbers. Seemingly, if the UK can see core inflation fall a little further than expected then there’s hope for everyone. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says, although the fall wasn’t dramatic, it adds to the global view that...

Wednesday 19th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are still excited about the prospect of inflation cooling, with equities pushing higher in the US. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the fall in the headline inflation rate in Canada was also encouraging, but there was a marginal move down in core inflation. There are more in...

Tuesday 18th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was further evidence of a slowdown in the Chinese economy in yesterday’s GDP print. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it reinforces the need for targeted fiscal measures to keep the economy on track for the target 5% annual growth. The Aussie moved down lower on the news and cou...

Monday 17th JUly 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB After all the confidence displayed last week following the lower-than-expected US inflation numbers, markets changing direction on Friday, with the US dollar rising, bond yields also increasing and equities losing some of their vigour. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says in part this is...

Friday 14th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s been no backtracking (so far) on the positive response to the US CPI numbers on Wednesday. US equities rose higher on Thursday, bond yields fell further and so did the US dollar. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks us through the market moves, including the rise in the Aussie doll...

Thursday 13th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was quite a response to the cooling in US inflation last night, pushing US equities to 15-month highs and sending bond yields lower. NAB’s Tapas Strickland delves into the CPI numbers and the market reaction, and what it means for future expectations from the Fed. There...

Wednesday 12th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Some parts of the world are showing clear signs of an economic slowdown. Like, Europe, where the latest ZEW survey shows a deteriorating outlook. In the UK unemployment rose more than expected yesterday, but so did wages. And, as Ken Crompton explains, yesterday’s NAB Busine...

Tuesday 11th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The speed of China’s economic recovery continues to cause concerns. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the fall in the CNY continues to pull the Aussie dollar lower, even against a weaker US dollar today. US Treasuries have fallen, despite more hawkish talk from Fed speakers overnight,...

Monday 10th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets will have breathed a collective sigh of relief on Friday when the US non-farm payrolls read came in below consensus, after the worrying upside surprise in the earlier ADP employment numbers. NAB’s Skye Masters says it doesn’t change the path for the Fed, though, particu...

Friday 7th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Clearly markets are very concerned about jobs data being too-strong after a big rise in the latest ADP numbers and in the employment component of the latest services ISM survey. The JOLTs numbers also showed an increase in job openings. All running contrary to the expectations o...

Thursday 6th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's been a quiet week so far, but that changes today with US Services ISM out later, along with the start of US jobs numbers, including the weekly jobless claims, the JOLTs job openings and the ADP employment release, ahead of tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls. Trepidation ahead o...

Wednesday 5th July 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA decided to keep rates on hold yesterday, but there are still expectations of two more hikes even though the commentary from the central bank was more about slowdown concerns that the prospect of inflation worsening or taking longer to come down. NAB’s Taylor Nugent sa...