NAB Morning Call

Tuesday 5th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Philip Lowe holds his final RBA meeting today. No press conference either. The expectation is that rates will be kept on hold for now. Bond yields have pushed a little higher, perhaps on the expectation that rates will push higher later in the year, which is NAB’s predicti...

Monday 4th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The number of American jobs rose in data released Friday. Normally this would be seen as a sign of a tightening labour market, but a sharp rise in those entering the labour force means the unemployment rate has actually increased, whilst wage increases have slowed. NAB’s Ra...

Friday 1st September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . It started out as a transitory problem driven by post-COVID supply constraints. Central banks thought it would pass. Then the mood switched and monetary tightening kicked in. But different central banks started at different times, hik...

Friday 1st September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Speaking in Cape Town the Bank of England’s Huw Pill has likened their policy approach to Table Mountain, with interest rates remaining flat for some time before falling away quickly. So, does he mean they’ve reached the summit. It seems likely that the ECB is still in the...

Thursday 31st August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There seems to be lots of good news in data from the US lately if the assumption is that soft data is good right now. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says we’ve been seeing a bit of that this week, including a downward revision in US GDP and the latest ADP jobs numbers reaffirming tha...

Wednesday 30th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Job openings declined more than expected in the latest data from the US. That’s seen bond yields drive lower as investors hope this slight weakening in the labour market will see off any further hikes by the FOMC. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’ll have to be confirmed with th...

Tuesday 29th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian retail numbers were a little higher than expected last month, but NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Matildas Effect will be partially responsible for that. Generally, though, the trend is weaker, particularly given the rising population base, so there’s no reason to expe...

Monday 28th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB If markets were hanging out for some unique wisdom from any central banks at Jackson Hole they would have been disappointed. All it did was dismiss any hopes of a more dovish take from Jerome Powell and his compatriots. NAB’s Skye Masters says the focus on Wyoming, meant less...

Friday 25th August 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australia’s falling productivity is in focus as we emerge from the pandemic. The Productivity Commission has provided recommendations for helping resolve the issue, and earlier in the week the Business Council released its ‘Seize the Mo...

Friday 25th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets lost confidence all of a sudden despite the standout earnings result and forecast from NVIDIA after the close yesterday. It did seem strange that there was such a focus on AI. Today shares are well down and NVIDIA has wiped out all of its gains. NAB’s David de Garis s...

Thursday 24th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed lower on the back of weaker than expected PMI umbers, particularly in the UK and Europe. The drop was less pronounced in the US but yields still pushed lower on the back of the European slowdown. Equities rose sharply, presumably on the prospect of less i...

Wednesday 23rd August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed’s Thomas Barkin has warned that strong consumer data from the US lately could mean a reacceleration in inflation is possible although, as NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, he also suggested that if inflation does come down then America is likely to see a soft landin...

Tuesday 22nd August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US Treasury Yields have hit new post GFC highs, but NAB’s Skye Masters says its hardly a surprise given where Fed funds rates currently are. She reminds us how last year 10-year Treasuries were trying to break 3%, hitting equity markets. Now yields are breaking above 4% and...

Monday 21st August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Central bankers descend on Jackson Hole at the end of the week for their annual symposium. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether we actually have a clear idea of the tack Jerome Powell will take when he talks on Friday. In the past Fed governors have been a little less gua...

Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Bond markets have been on a tumultuous rollercoaster ride. We saw a heavy sell off of last year as inflation picked up alongside rising interest rates. Now, they’re back, as a buying opportunity. So, are fund managers can seeing them as a growth asset rather t...

Friday 18th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It's becoming a familiar pattern lately, with bond yields pushing higher and equities taking a clobbering. The Aussie also continues to suffer as noises come from China about tackling their economic slowdown, but very little still in the way of sold action. Australia’s rise i...

Thursday 17th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The tide seems to be turning as investors and policy makes toy up the risk of inflation starting to climb again. NAB’s Gavin Friend says there was a strong suggestion of it in the FOMC minutes, released this morning, although that wascounteracted by two Fed members calling...

Wednesday 16th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a busy day for data releases, having a profound impact on markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through what’s happened, not least of which is the continued signs of slowdowns in the Chinese economy. Japan too has shown a fall in consumption, even though GDP rose (it...

Tuesday 15th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a quiet session, but bond yields have continued to push higher and the US dollar has climbed with them. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are continuing to adjust to an outlook where the US economy is growing faster than expected, and how that could push out the pat...

Monday 14th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets responded positively to softer than expected US CPI last week, but the dial was turned back quite a bit on Friday when producer prices showed an unexpected increase, particularly in the services sector. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s still an open question about how...

Friday 11th August 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Please  click here  to view our NAB Financial Services Guide. We are in the midst of the Australian reporting season, so what does it hold for Australian businesses and the share market? Gemma Dale is director, self-managed su...

Friday August 11th 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation has eased, by almost any measure you care to use, and jobless claims are heading the direction the Fed would like to see as well. All that is pointing to heightened expectations that they will hold at their next meeting. Yet bond yields are higher today. Why is t...

Thursday 10th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As expected, latest CPI data from China shows a country suffering the impact of deflation. It raises many questions including, could lower prices help calm inflation elsewhere. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril gives some perspectives today. Plus, oil and gas prices rise, for different...

Wednesday 9th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a bad session for banks in the US and Italy. NAB’s Tayor Nugent says there are three things that have sucked the optimism out of markets in the last 24 hours, two relate to banks. Moody’s has downgraded the credit rating for some mid-sized banks in the US, whilst...

Tuesday 8th August 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Stocks are bouncing back in the US after a bad week last week. What’s the reason for this positive speculation? Hopes of a weakening of inflation in the US CPI and PPI numbers later in the week perhaps. NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the moves in bond markets, also influenc...