NAB Morning Call

Thursday 5th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The bond sell-off that dominated the early part of the week has been put on pause today, with yields down a little and a largely positive picture for equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through what’s driving this change of sentiment. He doesn’t believe it’s one key thing b...

Wednesday 4th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Yesterday we asked how much higher US yields could go. The answer today is more than yesterday. Yields pushed higher again, the US dollar gained strength on the back of it, with the Aussie dollar, a day after the RBA kept rates on hold, being punished the most. So, how muc...

Tuesday 3rd October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US bond yields have pushed higher this morning on the weekend’s news that a shutdown of US government has been pushed back, but the same yawning chasm exists between both parties. Yields have also risen on the latest Manufacturing ISM, which came in stronger than expected. N...

Friday 29th September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The races is on to meet the 2050 NetZero target, and the 2030 target of 82% renewable energy. Australia isn’t the only country racing for the same finish line. Virginia Christie says the demand for inputs to build the infrastructure,...

Friday 29th September 2023 US confidence seems to be building, whilst Europe is still in the doldrums. US equities have risen, perhaps helped by the hopes of a visit by President Xi later this year. Europe could have made more of falling inflation in Germany, but is perhaps more concerned about rising debt in Italy. NAB’s Ray Attrill talks through the differences, which has also seen an increasing...

Thursday 28th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s It’s the same story again today – equities hurting, the US dollar higher and bond yields reaching 16 hear highs. What’s changed today is a sharp rise in oil prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says there’s a great deal of nervousness that supplies in the US have been des...

Wednesday 27th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are still a little directionless, with no substantial or surprising data to evoke any substantial moves in any asset classes. The only real movement is in equities, which continue to fall now the higher for longer message has sunk in. NAB’s Gavin Friend describe...

Tuesday 26th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were big moves higher in bond yields overnight, particularly at the long end. It’s been significant bear steepening, says NAB’s Skye Masters, pointing to the hawkish statements from central banks indicating rates will remain at restrictive levels for quite some time...

Monday 25th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The path of central banks does seem to be having as many twists and turns as a Dickensian novel. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the path of bond yields at the end of the week showed how the UK is taking a divergent path from the US, where central bank speakers are still suggesting...

Friday 22nd September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . It’s a tough time for small businesses in Australia and the road back from COVID seems to be a lot longer one that most expected. In this episode of The Weekend Edition Phil talks to Ana Marinkovic, NAB’s executive general manager of...

Friday 22nd September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of England has kept rates on hold for now. Many other central banks have met over the last 24 hours – some have been on hold, some continue to raise rates, one has even cut rates. But bond yields continue to rise and equity markets have taken a hit. JBWere’s Sally...

Thursday 21st September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The response to the FOMC announcement this morning was swift, with 2-year Treasury yields hitting a 17 year high. The equity markets switched into negative territory too. Why? NAB’s Gavin Friend says the fact that rates are on hold wasn’t a surprise, it was the rise in t...

Wednesday 20th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB This time tomorrow the Fed will have decided, and the assumption is that they will keep rates on hold. But for how long? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there’s an assumption of at least one more hike, which is being strengthened by further signs of persistent inflation. Oil n...

Tuesday 19th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As we wait for the barrage of central banks in the second half of the week, starting with the Fed, a Reuters report suggests the ECB is looking at reducing the high level of excess reserves which could be impacting the effectiveness of monetary policy. NAB’s Skye Masters...

Monday 18th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed isn’t the only central bank making a call this week. There’s also that expected hike from the Bank of England, plus the central banks of Japan, Switzerland, Sweden and Norway. Plus, the RBA minutes and day one in the new job for Michelle Bullock. NAB’s Tapas Strick...

Friday 15th September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The BoE’s Huw Pill recently likened the path of interest rates to Table Mountain, as he gazed out the window of a conference in Jo’burg. The FT’s Markets Editor Katie Martin says markets have finally accepted the high for longer mant...

Friday 15th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Just as NAB predicted, the ECB has lifted rates again, with a swift response in European bond yields and the value of the Europe. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through the announcement, the response and the question of whether there is more to come. The ECB also revised down it...

Thursday 14th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Even though US core CPI came in higher than expected, there was little movement in bond and currency markets. NAB’s Tapas Strickland explains how the market can sometimes expect more than expected! Plus, weaker GDP numbers for the UK. Are they entering into a recession?...

Wednesday 13th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The NAB Business Survey yesterday showed that price growth remained elevated and business conditions rose. NAB’s Ray Attrill says an interesting takeout is the contrast between the resilience showing up in business surveys, against consumer confidence. Even though indiv...

Tuesday 12th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB How soon will Japan move from negative interest rates? Maybe sooner than we thought after Gov Ueda’s interview over the weekend. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks about the response in Japanese Bond Yields yesterday and overnight. That, combined with a stronger push in the CNY ref...

Monday 11th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The G20, unsurprisingly, didn’t come up with any solid plans about tackling the global economic downturn and inflation concerns. Perhaps it exposed the size of the agenda gap between the west and the BRICs component. China continues to avoid any solid plan of its own, to l...

Friday 8th September 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australia is chasing two climate targets. First, to reduce emissions to 43% below 2005 levels by 2050, and NetZero by 2050. That’s going to take massive investment in infrastructure and capabilities. But, as Deloitte’s Claire Ibrahim...

Friday 8th Septembr 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar continues to hold its strength against weak economic data from Europe and a continuing slide in the Yuan, which has hit a 16-year low. But, JBWere’s Sally Auld says there was a glimmer of hope in China’s trade numbers for August, with signs that export activity...

Thursday 7th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed a bit higher overnight as US Services came in a bit higher than anticipated, along with wage growth. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through how it has been interpreted. The Beige Book is out and has soft landing written all over it, even if it is not explicit...

Wednesday 6th September 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It came as no surprise to anyone when the RBA announced no change to rates yesterday but, as NAB’s Tayor Nugent explains, there were references to further tightening if necessary. NAB still expects there will be one more hike before Christmas. So, can Australia pull off...