NAB Morning Call

Friday 3rd November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields are much lower across the board today. Phil asks NAB’s Ken Crompton if bonds are back in fashion. They are for now, says Ken, but he doesn’t discount the idea that we’ll see 10 year Treasuries hitting 5% sometime soon. Pauses from central banks are certainly help...

Thursday 2nd November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed kept rate son hold this morning, but there are no signs that they have finished yet. Jerome Powell was clear to point out every meeting remains live. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the statement has been updated to include financial conditions as one of the determinants o...

Wednesday 1st November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Bank of Japan is loosening its grip on yields. Today NAB’s Skye Masters explains what the move means and how markets responded. A sharp move down in the Yen suggests that more was expected. Also today further weakness in Europe – in growth and inflation – shows the EC...

Tuesday 31st October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities have risen today, alongside a fall in oil prices, as hopes rise that the Gaza war will not see contagion throughout the region. Meanwhile, Germany delivered slower GDP growth and falling inflation, ahead of the Europe wide data today. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says th...

Monday 30th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Are equity markets ahead of the curve? US firms have reported better than expected earnings and consumer spending is still growing. Yet shares are lower, with S&P entering correction territory. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the tide is starting to turn. Earning pr...

Friday 27th October 2023  Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . In these uncertain times, of high inflation, high interest rates, changing consumer patterns, there are some things that seem a little more certain, like our shift to renewables and our need for investment in infrastructure as the cl...

Friday 27th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US GDP came in higher-than-expected driven by strong consumer spending. But the core PCE index grew at the slowest rate since Q4 2019. So, inflation cooling, consumption rising. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland whether it will last and, if so, why are equiites struggling to...

Thursday 26th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Inflation numbers for Australia were higher than NAB’s expectations, which were higher than market expectations. The number is also well above the RBA’s own forecasting which, NAB’s Gavin Friend say, leaves them with little choice than to pursue at least one more rate hike...

Wednesday 25th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are displaying a degree of hope this morning, presumably because there has been no ground movement by Israelis into Gaza, but press reports seems somewhat less optimistic. Meanwhile, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the latest PMIs show the continuing divide between the U...

Tuesday 24th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were no strong data releases over the last 24 hours to give markets direction and some have clearly made the bold assumption that no ground movement into Gaza is a sign that tensions are easing. As a result, we’ve seen bond yields pull off recent highs, equity markets...

Monday 23rd October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US 10-year treasuries got up to 4.996% last week – not quite making it over 5%. So, does that mean they have peaked? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Ray Attrill at the start of what could be a volatile week, as uncertainty remains over the conflict in Israel and Gaza. The ke...

Friday 20th October 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . We invited UK-based economist Vicky Pryce on to talk about why Europe was struggling with growth whilst the US was on the road to recovery? How much is down to the issue of applying a single monetary policy across a diverse range of EU...

Friday 20th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s been a day that has seen sell-offs in equities, treasuries and the US dollar. So where is the money going? NAB’s Ken Crompton says some of it is still pouring into oil, as uncertainty mounts over the Israeli-Gaza war, but we’re also seeing a little diversity betwee...

Thursday 19th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields reached new multi-year highs overnight, with sharp rises on 10 years in the US and the UK. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, this time, it isn’t further central bank speculation driving yields higher, it’s the rising tensions in the Middle Easta and concerns about oil pr...

Wednesday 18th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are now more focused on central bank expectations, with the hope that world leaders can contain the war in Israel and Gaza. NAB’s Tapas Strickland talks through the stronger than expected US retail numbers, as inflation expectations rise. The RBA are also sounding...

Tuesday 17th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have backtracked on their measure of risk emanating from the middle east, with hopes that some sort of resolution will be brokered to avoid a regional war. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s a response to the fact that things haven’t escalated in the last 24 hours. Meanwh...

Monday 16th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East is seeing a rush to safe-haven assets, including a sizeable lift in gold prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland wonders whether many investors had been caught short, buying in on central banks’ higher for longer narrative,...

Friday 13th October 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Our super contributions are designed to ensure we have a happy retirement, so is that working? The median balance for a man in his early sixties is $212k, for a woman its $158k. When will we reach an adequate level for most to lead a c...

Friday 13th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation came in stronger than expected, pushing yields higher and strengthening the US dollar. NAB’s Gavin Friend suggests that markets are questioning the suggestion that higher yields would negate the need for further rises. Elsewhere oil has been steadied somewhat by...

Thursday 12th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Whilst central banks, particularly the Fed, are increasingly cautious about further rate hikes, the RBA’s Christopher Kent hinted that more might need to be done to slow the Aussie economy. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says a hike in November is likely to get the market speculat...

Wednesday 11th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There have been a few surprises so far this week. Obviously the Hamas attacks on Israel is a bad start, and there’s every chance that will escalate further. Secondly, the more dovish approach from Fed speakers, heightening the expectation that the Fed will not lift rates...

Tuesday 10th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The market action this morning is perhaps less pronounced than could be expected, given the scale of the conflict between Israel and Gaza. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says some of the turnaround in US equities came from Fed speakers who seem to be shifting their bias away from mor...

Monday 9th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US non-farm payrolls numbers on Friday surprised many. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the 336k new jobs was well above expectations and pricing for another hike by the Fed this year increased slightly. But a clearer picture of the direction of the Fed can be gauged after the releas...

Friday 7th October 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . There are tentative signs that China’s domestic economy is picking up. On The Weekend Edition Sheana Yue from Capital Economics in Singapore says early indications are that the Golden Week this week has seen increased demand for housing...

Friday 6th October 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There has been so much volatility in bond and equity markets lately it’s hard to imagine that the non-farm payrolls data tonight won’t prompt some sort of response. But what are we expecting? NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the latest movements, which have been fairly relaxe...