NAB Morning Call

Friday 1st December 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . On The Weekend Edition NAB CEO Ross McEwan says his focus next year is on keeping customers safe from cybercrime, fraud and scams. Phil Dobbie also asks him about the role of AI to help counter cybercrime as well as help in the day-to-...

Friday 1st December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB European inflation fells a little faster than expected. It’s knocked the Euro a little today, but JBWere’s Sally Auld says for the Euro to really see some gains it’ll take a combination of US rate cuts alongside strong growth outside the US, to help drive down the dollar. Me...

Thursday 30th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian inflation was lower than expected yesterday. It was the same in Germany. And US quarterly PCE prices were revised lower. All signs that seem to be indicating price growth is slowing and central banks will be pushing rates lower. But there are some caveats to al...

Wednesday 29th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields pushed lower as markets continue to expect rate cuts by the Fed next year. Tapas Strickland says NAB’s own modelling based on recent data supports significant cuts next year. The Fed’s Chris Waller, who had previously flagged concern about the pace of growth...

Tuesday 28th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It’s an in-between day, with little ion the way of economic news, but inflation data just round the corner, in the form of Australian CPI and US PCE. There were sizeable auctions of 2 and 5 year Treasuries this morning, with softer demand, but that hasn’t driven the direct...

Monday 27th November 2023  NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB At the end of a quiet week we saw the US dollar fall a little further on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this reflects the expectation that there will be no further hikes from the Fed. The Aussie dollar hasn’t realised the full potential, largely because of question marks...

Friday 24th November 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Consolidation will continue in the superannuation industry as a way of provided better returns for members. That’s the prediction from Mercer’s Chief Investment Officer Kylie Willment, talking to Phil on the Weekend Edition. Mercer re...

Friday 24th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were relatively quiet overnight with the US off for Thanksgiving, but stronger PMI data from Europe created some interest, pushing the Euro higher, but NAB’s Ray Attrill still says German can expect to enter a shallow recession. The pound performed slightly better b...

Thursday 23rd November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian inflation is now driven by local factors. That’s what the RBA’s Michelle Bullock said at the Australian Business Economists dinner last night. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it doesn’t sound like a central bank that’s done with interest rate hikes, and points to how...

Wednesday 22nd November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The FOMC minutes were cagey when it came to the prospect of rate cuts. The RBA minutes were the same, with Michelle Bullock also reiterating her concerns about persistent wage inflation. And the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey told UK politicians that markets were gettin...

Tuesday 21st November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There was a big 20-year Treasury auction today, which went better than expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says markets had assumed a flood of new issuance in a short week would suppress demand, but that wasn’t the case. Elsewhere, the overseas Yuan hit its highest level since...

Monday 20th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It was a quite day on Friday with very little of earth-shattering consequence to report. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk about just how devoid of new sit was. We did see a downside surprise in UK retail numbers but, as flagged on Friday podcast, it was a very wet mont...

Friday 17th November 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Ethical investment, or ESG; it’s being talked about more and more. It seems more people want to be involved, so long as it provides the returns they expect. This week Phil is joined by Maria Loyez, Chief Customer Officer at Australian...

Friday 17th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB So, after the excitement of softening inflation in the US comes concern that its being accompanied by a delayed slowdown in the economy. That was certainly reflected in some of the second tier US data, and could explain a further fall in oil prices. NAB’s Tapas Strickland s...

Thursdsay 16th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Goldilocks continues to deliver what America wants, with softer producer prices and only a slight move down in retail sales. Equity markets continue to enjoy the party, although bond yields are back on the rise. Hardly surprising given the scale of the moves this week, s...

Wednesdsay 15th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation fell further than most expected – although NAB had predicted a downward surprise. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks about the market response, which has been felt in equities, bonds and the dollar. It follows two big drops in Eurozone inflation, adding to the view t...

Tuesday 14th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The NY Fed’s consumer inflation survey overnight had expectations fall a little over last month, in contrast to the University of Michigan survey last week, which had inflation expectations rising. So who do you believe? You believe the hard numbers, says NAB’s Ray At...

Monday 13th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It seems the more dovish sentiment in the US has been reversed by Jerome Powell suggesting the Fed might have more to do to keep inflation in check. NAB’s Skye Masters says the weak 30-year auction on Thursday has also seen yields push lower, along with upward pressure on i...

Friday November 10th 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . With the risk of interest rates going even higher, and a slug of the Australian population yet to move onto variable loans, are we about to see a sudden change in consumer spending as more households step off the fixed rate cliff. Thi...

Friday 10th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields kicked higher in the US after a $24 billion 30 year auction attracted less interest than expected. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says the auction yields were 5 basis points higher than pre-sales. We discuss why interest in long duration bonds is falling. Markets are al...

Thursday 9th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It looks like there’s heightening expectations of a global slowdown, evidenced by further significant falls in oil prices today and an end to the equities rally in the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill says one former ECB Governor has added to the melancholic tone by suggesting Europe...

Wednesday 8th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA lifted rates, as expected, yesterday, with the possibility of another hike to come. JBWere’s Sally Auld says the central bank had always assumed it was different to others, with the flexibility of a longer runway to bring inflation down without damaging the econom...

Tuesday 7th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB still firmly expects the RBA to lift interest rates today. As Talor Nugent observes, in a Bloomberg survey, 29 of 32 economists are expecting a hike. It’s a safer punt than anything on the Melbourne Cup today, although markets are still pricing a 30% chance that the RBA...

Monday 6th November 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Softer ISM data and weaker than expected jobs data in the US on Friday has seen a rally on bonds, pushing yields down and taking the US dollar down with it. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril points out, not only have markets reduced their expectations for future hikes, but an increasi...

Friday 3rd November 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . We’ve been through a tumultuous time, with COVID, inflation, geopolitical unrest. Go back a few years we were also struggling with sluggish growth. It’s been a tricky time for businesses, so what is the magic sauce that has seen succes...