NAB Morning Call

Thursday 18th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are pricing more and more for delays in rate cuts. NAB’S Ken Crompton says even with pricing for cuts of 13bp in February that still shows some “irrational exuberance”. The expectations for delays in rate cuts follow Christopher Wallers comments earlier in the week...

Wednesday 17th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Bond yields have ushed higher in the US after the Fed’s Christopher Waller made a speech on the economic outlook at The Brookings Institute, called ‘Almost as Good as it Gets, but will it last?’. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says he appeared less dovish than anticipated, hence ex...

Tuesday 16th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB German GDP fell 0.3% last year, even if they did manage to narrowly avoid a technical recession. Europe’s industrial production also fell in the latest data. Yet ECB members continue to talk down expectations for rate cuts at least until the middle of the year. Phil asks JB...

Monday 15th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were big falls in 2 year Treasury yields on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this can be attributed to softer than expected producer prices in the US, which feeds through to the PCE deflator number that the Fed uses as its inflation measure. So what has this done to rate...

Friday 12th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US inflation was a little bit of a surprise. Whilst the headline rate was expected to rise a little, it came in higher than forecast, whilst the core rate didn’t fall as much as had been hoped for. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the Fed’s super core measure is the part of the infla...

Thursday 11th January 2024   NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian inflation fell faster than expected in November. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent what this means for the rate path from the RBA. He says the monthly data is a relatively new indicator and is still volatile, so we should be cautious in interpreting the numbe...

Wednesday 10th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have started the year rather cautiously. Bond yields have held up and equity markets are clearly nervous, suggesting many investors are questioning the speed of the path to rate cuts, particularly in the US. Could Friday’s strong non-farm payrolls read last Friday...

Friday 22nd December 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . In our final edition of The Morning Call for the year JBWeir’s Sally Auld joins Phil to look back about the surprises of 2023, and to give some of her predictions for 2024. Few expected interest rates to rise as high as they did, but...

Friday 22nd December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Well, you could argue that if the US wants to get inflation down to 2% that its already there. Why? NAB’s Ray Attrill points out that the latest quarterly PCE read – the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – has been revised down to an annual figure that falls within their ta...

Thursday 21st December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB UK inflation fell much faster than expected and more than the Bank of England predicted. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London says its clear that there will be no more rate hikes in the UK, reflected in markets today with a sharp rise in equities and a significant drop in bond yi...

Wednesday 20th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA minutes yesterday were more hawkish than expected. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril talks about how the central bank is aiming for the mid-point of their 2 – 3 percent target range, rather than the top, raising the prospect of rates staying higher, or a more concerted effort...

Tuesday 19th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US bond yield rose higher overnight, along with equities, as the prospect of a slower path of rates cuts by the Fed sinks in. NAB’s Skye Masters says it’s a settling down after the rally in bonds we’ve seen in the last month or so, helped by more Fed speakers overnight tal...

Monday 18th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US Fed’s John Williams said on Friday that it was too soon to be looking at rate cuts, despite the FOMC dots plot showing members expecting several cuts next year. Phil Dobbie asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland about Williams’ motivation and the market response. Meanwhile, as...

Friday 15th December 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . When it comes to the use and deployment of AI a Deloitte report reckons many Australian businesses are slow to catch on to the risks and opportunities it presents. This week Phil Dobbie talks to Rhiannon Yetsenga, a manager in the Eco...

Friday 15th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Whilst the FOMC signalled the likelihood of several rate cuts next year, NAB’s Gavin Friend says the Bank of England and ECB are giving nothing away, with both saying there is more to e done to bring inflation under control. One European bank even managed to slip in a...

Thursday 14th Decenber 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A Fed that is happy to hold, and is expecting to cut three times next year. That’s the takeout from the FOMC meeting this morning. Markets have responded swiftly, with sharp moves down in the US dollar and bond yields, with the Aussie dollar making the biggest gains this...

Wednesday 13th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB In numbers out overnight the headline US CPI rate fell a little, but no more than expected, whilst core inflation remained stuck at 4%. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it again showed the dichotomy between core goods, which fell 0.3% in the month, and services which rose 0...

Tuesday 12th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Yen is the biggest currency move overnight, losing some of the recent gains. NAB’s Ray Attril says it comes from a Bloomberg story overnight which doused expectations that there will be a ‘surprise’ policy change next week. Otherwise, markets are largely treading...

Monday 11th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US non-farm payrolls data came in a lot higher than expected on Friday, with 200k extra jobs added last month. Wages grew a little more than expected. Not what you’d expect for an economy that is supposedly cooling. So, were the numbers too hot? Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo...

Friday 8th December 2023 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . It’s been fifty years since the UK signed an agreement with the European Economic Community. That had a profound impact on Australian exports. We’ve built a far more diverse export base since then, of course, but now, since Brexit, wit...

Friday 8th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Probably not, is the answer to our headline, but NAB’s Ken Crompton says markets are pricing in a heightened expectation of the BoJ moving from negative rates sometime soon. The sharp rise in Japanese government bond yields yesterday and overnight almost wiped out the falls...

Thursday 7th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Falling inflation and lowering interest rates is definitely the consensus view now. It comes at the cost of weaker demand, evidenced by the continued drop in oil prices. NAB’s Ray Attrill says falling fuel costs are no doubt helping European equities, which finished higher...

Wednesday 6th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA kept rates on hold, didn’t change too much in their statement, but Australian bonds still rallied. JBWere’s Sally Auld says it was a curious reaction, but just about every market wants to avoid contemplating that rates could go higher even if that might still be t...

Tuesday 5th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB With shares falling and bond yields rising, markets might have taken a step too far when it comes to anticipating the timing of rate cuts next year, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says cuts are still expected. They have just priced in a little more risk ahead of a series of key...

Monday 4th December 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB When it comes to predicting rate cuts by the Fed, will the chair Jerome Powell be the last one to shift his position? During his ‘fireside chat’ on Friday he said it would be premature to assume they have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance. As NAB’s Taylor Nugent poi...