NAB Morning Call

Friday 16th February 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . In the consumer space there are only really two ways tech firms make money. They either sell stuff – usually subscriptions – or they offer free content supported by advertising. Advertising is as old as the hills so you might be mista...

Thursday 15th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There have been some surprises in the last 24 hours but it seems none of it will change the dial for central banks. Australia’s unemployment ticked above 4% yesterday, but JBWere’s Sally Auld explains why you have to be cautious about January numbers and why it doe...

Thursday 15th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Central banks seem to be sounding a little more dovish, with the exception of the RBA and RBNZ of course. NAB’s Ray Attrill says market expectations are driving away from the higher-than-expected US CPI read, like a speeding car. Hence, bond yields have bounced bac...

Wednesday 14th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US CPI numbers showed that inflation isn’t coming down as fast as expected. The market reaction was swift as markets repriced their expectations for the timing of rate cuts. Equites fell sharply, bond yields rose as the US dollar gained ground.. NAB’s Taylor Nugen...

Tuesday 13th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Maybe not as exciting as the Super Bowl, but the CPI numbers out in the US early tomorrow morning (Australia time) could have a more significant impact on the US economy and the speed of cuts from the Fed. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the headline rate is expected to s...

Monday 12th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Talk about an anti-climax! Markets were on tenterhooks ahead of the revision to US CPI on Friday but, it turns out, there was nothing to see. NAB’s Tapas Strickland points out that the revision was one basis point higher for the three-month average. Now markets can f...

Friday 9th February 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Australian tourism was enjoying record highs for visitor numbers before the pandemic. Then we closed the borders. Visitor arrivals are picking up again, but are still not back to 2019 levels. But Samantha Palmer, general manager of Aus...

Friday 9th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The Fed and several other central banks are united in their message that there’s no rush to cut rates. Thomas Barkin was the latest to deliver the message from the FOMC, suggesting they won’t ‘toggle’ rates until they’ve had a few more months of data. Meanwhile, NAB’s...

Thursday 8th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Once again central bankers have been out pushing the message that rates will not be coming down quickly. What’s more, the neutral rate is likely to be higher than before. There was a lacklustre response from bond markets, which managed to absorb $2 billon worth of n...

Wednesday 7th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It was a busy day for Australia yesterday, with the RBA announcement, the statement of monetary policy, and the press conference. For all of that there wasn’t any wild fluctuations in markets, despite the hawkish tilt and the spectre of a rate rise given as one pos...

Tuesday 6th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Stronger than expected ISM services data yesterday has dampened further the likelihood of a March rate cut. Meanwhile, China is taking more steps to stem the outflow from equity markets. Australia, meanwhile, readies itself for the first RBA announcement of 2024...

Monday 5th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US payrolls numbers on Friday showed a surprisingly large upswing, mirroring the ADP numbers earlier in the week. The data also showed a higher-than-expected increase in wages. NAB’s Ken Crompton says this puts paid to any hopes of a March rate cut, with the first ful...

Friday 2nd February Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Sydney and Melbourne property prices are down from their peaks, whilst Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth reached all time highs last month. But for how long? Will Sydney and Melbourne bounce back? Phil talks to Eliza Owen Core Logic’s Head of Re...

Friday 2nd February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It wasn’t a unanimous decision by the Bank of England overnight. Some of the board wanted to lift rates, the majority wanted to hold, but there was one who still wanted to push them higher. All in all a March cut is now extremely unlikely according to NAB’s Gavin Frie...

Thursday 1st February 2023 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB At the FOMC today a unanimous decision was made to keep rates on hold, but there was suggestion that they’d be cutting rates anytime soon. JBWere’s Sally Auld says this will dent the optimism of those hoping for a lower rate in March. Australia’s inflation numbers y...

Wednesday 31st January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB We are less than 24 hours away from the next FOMC meeting. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says an indication that the Fed was dropping its tightening bias would help validate the higher expectations for cuts in market pricing. But will it happen? Even though inflation is f...

Tuesday 30th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB For all the delaying tactics of central bank speakers, markets are still pricing cuts earlier for the fed and the ECB. So who goes first? NAB’s Ray Attrill says it’s a two-horse race, although markets are pricing in early cuts in Europe. That could all change, of cou...

Monday 29th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB You want busy, we’ll give you busy. The FOMC and the Bank of England meet this week and five of the magnificent 7 report earnings. We’ll also see the latest Australian CPI read and payrolls data from the US. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to catch up on data from the...

Thursday 25th January 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . By and large investors will have seen slim returns from Australian equities in 2023, but they would have made far more from US shares and, in particular, the magnificent seven. So, does the same apply for this year? Phil asks Gemma D...

Thursday 25th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Theres a more risk positive mood this morning NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says its being driven by moves in China to drive an economic recovery, including a half percent cut in the reserve requirement ratio for lenders. There’s been more attention ,though, to talk of a (long awai...

Wednesday 24th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Aussie dollar gained a bit of ground briefly yesterday on reports of China launching a rescue package to placate their retail investors, with shares now the furthest they’ve ever been behind the US. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there’s a question mark as to whether they are...

Tuesday 23rd Janaury 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US equities hit new highs again overnight, reflecting the optimism for an economy that’ s beating inflation and escaping recession. Even the continuance of weak data and pessimism for the Chinese economy is failing t impact US ebullience. NAB Skye Masters says bond markets...

Mondaay 22nd January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The S&P hit its first high since January 2022 on Friday, driven largely by the major tech stocks. Phil asks whether there’s just too much exuberance? NAB’s Tapas Strickland says it’s an important week for tech earnings this week, including Netflix, Tesla and IBM. US pos...

Friday 19th January 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Our guest on the Weekend Edition this week says Bitcoin started as an anarchic response to the rapidly rising quantity of Fiat currencies. UK economist and writer Frances Coppola still believes the value of Bitcoin is tied to the polic...

Friday 19th January 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US bond yields continue to push higher as the expectation for delayed cuts mounts. The weekly jobless claims will help the Fed’s case here, with a surprise fall showing how tight the labour market still is. But these are volatile numbers, says NAB’s Gavin Friend, particularl...