NAB Morning Call

Monday 18th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB This week we hear the interest rate decisions from the RBA, the Fed, the BOE, the Bank of Japan, Norge’s Bank and the Swiss National Bank. Will any of them move rates? NAB’s Rodrigo Catril looks at what to expect and when, including the growing possibility that we’ll se...

Friday 18th March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . A pandemic, water shortages, labour supply issues, the cost of finance, China’s slow recovery, climate change. It seems like the agricultural sector faces massive headwinds, but NAB’s Lea Jurkovic says there’s still an immense amount of...

Friday 15th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Reality is starting to bite. Pesky inflation is taking longer to come down, even as other data is showing slower economic growth. NAB’s Ken Crompton says its only one day, but stronger producer prices and slower retail growth is your classic stagflation data print. It’s...

Wednesday 13th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Another big auction overnight showed strong appetite from investors for long-dated US bonds. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the resilience in US data refuses to give up and the timeline for when the Fed will cut rates continues to get pushed back. Markets are not even fully...

Wednesday 13th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US inflation came in hotter than expected ion data out overnight, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it was only marginally above expectations, rounding just makes it seem worth. It’s not changing expectations for a June cut, he says. The NAB Business Survey provided more...

Tuesday 12th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US CPI is out today. A core monthly read of 0.3 percent is expected. JBWere’s Sally Auld says that’s too high to meet the Fed’s target so we’ll need to see CPI down to 0.2 percent over successive months before they can be certain they are on track. Japan’s GDP growth w...

Monday 11th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US payrolls data was initially a surprise on Friday. NAB’s Ray Attrill says there was an initial algo-driven market response, before the human s stepped in on realising that substantial downward revisions in the previous two months meant jobs data was weaker than antici...

Friday 18th March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . You would be right in assuming that equality for women is less prevalent in Japan than it is in Australia. There are 200 listed companies on the Nikkei who don’t have a single female board member. But things are changing. Melanie Brock i...

Friday 8tth March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB NAB’s Gavin Friend says you only need to look at the falls we’ve been experiencing in yields lately to recognise that there’s a renewed acceptance that rates will be cut, probably by the middle of the year, in the US and Europe. At the ECB meeting Christine Lagarde talk...

Thursday 7tth March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The Aussie dollar has led the major sin currency gains today. NAB’s Skye Masters says it follows a fall n the US dollar, with the DXY at its lowest level in over a month. The rise in the Aussie happened despite a lacklustre GDP report for Australia, although the resul...

Wednesday 6tth March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The US ISM services index showed a larger than expected slowdown. As NAB’s ray Attrill describes, that’s driven interest in bonds, helped by another fall in US equities, driven by falls in tech stocks. Here’s also been a rise in Bitcoin and gold, both hitting record...

Tursday 4th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US shares have taken a rest for now. Perhaps a $1.8 billion fine on Apple over music streaming has reminded big tech investor that regulators have power. Today, NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the impact of yesterday’s GDP partials for Australia, much of it driven by m...

Monday 4th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The US Manufacturing ISM was weaker than expected don Friday, with new orders, production and employment all contracting. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether this accounts for a fall in front end yields on Friday and whether its impacted expectations for the timing of...

Friday 1st March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . This week Kate Griffiths from the Grattan Institute warns that the recent budget surplus is hiding the fact that the long-term balance between Australia’s tax intake and the expectations for government spending don’t stack up. As the popu...

Friday 1st March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets were relieved that the US PCE deflators came in in-line with expectations. But, as JBWere’s Sally Auld points out, the six-month annualised rate is ticking up a little, hence the desire by th Fed to see more data before committing to rate cuts. Ion a busy episode...

Thursday 29th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets responded sharply to the RBNZ hold decision yesterday, even though it was largely expected. The tone from the press conference that followed left most assuming there would be no more hikes, even if it’ll take a while for rates to come down. NaAB's Ken Cromp...

Wednesday 28th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Japan’s inflation is down, but not quite as much as expected. That’s raised expectation from some that the BoJ will use this as a reason to lift rates. Phil asks NAB’s Taylor Nugent whether they need to. Japanese exports seem to be benefiting from a lower Yen righ...

Tuesday 27th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Tomorrow is looking a lot more interesting than today, with Australian CPI and the RBNZ. Overnight though, we had more talk from the ECB, including a curious comment from the Bank of Greece Governor, seemingly reinforcing the suggestion that June is the month for cu...

Friday 23rd February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Central bankers are being very elusive when it comes to the timeframe for cutting rates. The Fed’s John Williams said on Friday that he believes rates will come down this year, even though markets are expecting a move in June. The ECB’s Christine Lagarde says she wan...

Friday 23rd February 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . The US has been enjoying healthy share prices and a market preparing for lower interest rates, with the much-vaunted soft landing. But how much of this good will could disappear if Donald Trump returns to the White House next year? Th...

Friday 23rd February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The caution we’ve been seeing in the US share market has dissolved completely since the release of NVIDIA earnings yesterday. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the euphoria has even spread as far as Japan. But is too much good news taken by the Fed as another reason to delay r...

Thursday 22nd February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The FOMC minutes this morning didn’t provide many surprises, except warning that inflation could pick up and more evidence was needed. All reasons to delay cuts until, possibly June. Meanwhile, as NAB’s Gavin Friend points out, the ECB has almost committed verbally...

Wednesday 21st February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Canada’s latest inflation rate came in lower than expected overnight, prompting the inevitable speculation about an earlier cut from the Bank of Canada. April perhaps? Phil asks NAB’s Skye Masters whether this means they’ll be the first major central bank to move...

Tueday 20th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It’s been quieter than quiet the last 24 hours. The US has been off for Presidents Day, and elsewhere only glacial movements in bonds and currencies. Why? Well, as Phil discusses with NAB’s Ken Crompton, its because there’s not much in the way of data releases to mov...

Monday19th February 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There was some dismissing of the US CPI numbers last week as not being the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. But the producer prices on Friday, which do input into the Fed’s preferred Core PCE number, also showed prices ticking higher in January. Evidence of the b...