NAB Morning Call

Thursday 18th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Markets were mixed overnight. The dollar lost a bit of ground, AUD and NZD outperformed, bond yields fell, while US equities have continued to struggle. The only geopolitics to speak of came from Joe Biden talking uppi...

Wednesday 17th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB There’s been a significant shift in sentiment from central bankers at the IMF meeting in Washington. Jerome Powell, who had previously seemed happy to accept rate cuts relatively soon, is now signalling it will take longer. IMF forecasts that significantly upgraded U...

Tuesday 16th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The latest retail numbers showed the resilience in the US economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says its surprising given the fall in household savings, but there are more people in work feeding the spending habit. These stronger than expected numbers haven’t changed expectations...

Monday 15th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB How markets respond to the Middle East situation this week really depends on whether Israel retaliates. The expectation of the weekend’s drone attack on Israel by Iran pushed the US dollar higher, bond yields lower and caused some damage to equities. NAB’s Taylor Nugent...

Friday 12th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Financial advisors could be missing a trick. So many of them are men, used to dealing with men, yet the customer base is shifting. High net worth women are accumulating their own assets, from their own lucrative careers, from intergenera...

Friday 12th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Christine Lagarde said a few members of the ECB were ready to cut rates now, even as the ECB President announced that, for now, rates will stay on hold. Was this the strongest suggestion yet that a June cut will happen? Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Fiend what he took from...

Thursday 11th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US inflation is not coming down quickly. There’s been a lot of evidence for that lately and the latest CPI numbers can be added to the list. The response from markets have been quite pronounced, with a significant rise in yields, a sharp climb in the US dollar and a f...

Wednesday 10th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US CPI numbers are out today along with a couple of meetings of central banks - the Bank of Canada and the RBNZ. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the expectations for both those meetings, although clearly both are expected to be on hold. So which one will make the m...

Tuesday 9th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB 10 year Treasury yields hit a year to date high overnight as markets continue to push back expectations for the number and timing of FOMC cuts this year. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the Fed’s Goolsbee described the US economy as being in a normal boom-time – not the environm...

Monday 8th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB US non-farm payrolls showed many more new workers than expected last month, but an increase in the participation rate meant the unemployment rate actually fell. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril why the numbers have pushed back market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed....

Friday 5th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . China is forecasting GDP growth of 5 percent this year. The China Daily suggested last week that the economy was on track to see sustained growth of 4.5 percent each year until 2035. Just how realistic are those ambitions for a country st...

Friday 5th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The latest building approvals for Australia show just how bad the housing situation is becoming. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it’s a structural problem that adds to the difficulties the RBA faces in slowing inflation. He talks through the latest NAB forecasts for CPI ahead...

Thursday 4th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Jerome Powell spoke at the Stamford Forum overnight, reiterating that the Fed was prepared to wait before cutting rates. JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are now stating to come to terms with the fact that a June cut is almost certainly off the cards, and three cuts th...

Wednesday 3rd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Bond yields continued to rise in the US overnight, with Europe playing catch-up as it returns from a long Easter weekend. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the adjustment markets are making to their rate cut expectations from the Fed. European bonds also rose even thou...

Tueday 2nd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The US manufacturing ISM this morning was stronger than expected. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if we are seeing more soft-landing evidence from the US, with the Core PCE deflator read on Friday showing prices are rising just 2.8% year on year, whilst spending is rising, a...

Friday 22nd March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Bronwyn Curtis OBE is an Australian economist living in the UK with an illustrious career in finance. She’s headed Currency and Fixed Income at Deutsche Bank, then later at HSBC, as well as working fo the World Bank in Latin America and...

Thursday 28th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB A early Easter this year is creating the potential for extra volatility the last day or two of the quarter. Even though the Core PC deflator numbers are out at the end of the week, the markets are closed on Friday. That means markets finish the quarter still speculati...

Wednesday 27th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB It’s been a session low on significant data and low on market moves. Bond markets have managed to absorb sizeable auctions however, and equities have bounced back as we approach month end and the US inflation data at the end of the week. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks thro...

Tuesday 26th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The CNY climbed higher today, as the PBoC set a higher reference rate, reversing expectations that perhaps authorities were willing to see the currency drift a little lower. NAB’s Rodrigo Catrl talks through the moves, and the warning from one senior Japanese official...

Monday 25th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB The CNY fell sharply on Friday after Chinese authorities set the daily reference rate weaker than expected. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through the consequences and repercussions of an approach that might be less contained. Meanwhile markets are responding to the commenta...

Friday 22nd March 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here . Foreign students are back and more than ever. Julie Hare, education editor at the AFR, says its more than just a rebound and catch-up from COVID. Something has shifted. So, what does that mean for the economy? NAB’s Taylor Nugent says th...

Friday 22nd March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Equity markets ushed higher, presumably on expectations of looming rate cuts by various central banks. NAB’s Gavin Friend in London says a move in August is still expected by the Bank of England, as the two hawks who voted for a rise last time fell in line in the latest...

Thursday 21st March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Inflation has eased, but not enough yet says Jerome Powell, as the Fed keeps rates on hold, and Fed members point to a slightly higher long-term nominal rate. NAB’s Taylor Nugent dissects the announcement and the press conference, before looking ahead to the Bank of E...

Wednesday 20th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB With the RBA and bank of Japan out of the way, markets are readying themselves for the FOMC tomorrow, with yields drifting a little lower today in anticipation. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the RBA has removed its tightening bias – now, nothing is ruled out or in. The nex...

Tuesday 19th March 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer   Financial Services Guide | Information on our services -   NAB Two central banks meet today, but the outcomes seem predictable. The end of negative rates by the Bank of Japan seems to have been well signalled, and the RBA continues its restrictive policy settings. NAB’s Skye Masters says we continue to look to November as the firs...