Market Trends with Tracy

Reduced harvest numbers continue for beef, about 5% lower than last year. Beef pricing is elevated and will most likely stay that way. Wings will be the item for Memorial Day as they continue lower. Tenders remain the premium item in chicken. Only one new case reported this week for Avian Flu. Pork bellies are down $10 from last week and production is up. Smoked or grilled pork is also a great opt...

Chicken is interesting, a little of everything up down and in between.  Tenders are still running a bit short and moving up again, boneless skinless random breasts are holding steady though I would not be surprised if the next move in breast meat is higher.  Wings on the other hand, still moving lower.  This week’s avian flu update and I have nothing to say.  NO new cases reported for the last wee...

Last week’s harvest of 622K was up from the prior week of 613K but still well below what we would expect this time of year and a good 25 -30K head below last year.  There is some consensus we will stay in this reduced production cycle well into summer which may make beef a luxury choice.  The continuing “bargain” pricing in chicken and pork will be a drag on these moves higher, but only so much. ...

Chicken Tenders are leading the way higher, but it seems they are doing this all alone.  Boneless Skinless random breasts and wings are both moving lower again.  Production continues strong about the same pace we’ve seen for weeks now so product is readily available.  Chicken continues to be a good value .  Now onto avian flu and two good weeks are about all we could stand.  This week we’ve seen o...

So we’ve been looking at this beef market expecting a spring increase based on better demand with spring.  Retail demand has been pretty tepid, so beef producers are going to force this market higher by restraining supply.  We’ve seen this over the past few weeks but they are serious now.  Last week was a total of 603K head harvested, down from the previous week’s 651K head.  This week is shaping...

If you got the Legally Blonde reference, we appreciate you. With the markets closed for Good Friday these are the final numbers for the week and it is all down.  Barrel is down 14, block is down 16 and butter is down 5.  Spring Flush seems to be having an affect with additional milk coming to market.  To define spring flush, happy cows produce more milk, and spring flush is when the dairy cow diet...

Pork Belly closed yesterday at $91 up from last week at $82.  Still, anything under $100 is bargain time.  Same burdensome inventory is keeping pork a real protein value, whether it is bacon, loins, ribs, the only exception continue to be butts which continue to enjoy strong export demand.  As usual I recommend to menu pork.  Savalfoods.com  |  Find us on Social Media :  Instagram ,  Facebook ,  Y...

Beef harvest is holding pretty steady at 631K head down just a bit from last week at 634K head.  Even with these restricted production numbers, p ricing is pretty restrained as there is not big demand pushing this product out.  I still think the overall tone of this market is moving higher but I think we have a week or two before the weather turns and we get some really nice weather to get people...

Beef production is creeping up as we approach Spring. Middle meats are holding steady, but the next move will most likely be higher. Chucks and rounds should move lower, while thin cuts will steadily increase. Beef is not the bargain buy right now, but it should hold steady for a week or so. Chicken wings are on the decline again. Strong production numbers continue. Breasts and tenders continue to...

Beef harvest picks up from last week totally 629K head up from last week to 618K head.  These production numbers are keeping the market tight.  Though March is not stacking with strong demand as of yet and the recent rally we’ve seen with both bad weather and reduced production seems to have lost a bit of steam.  I’ve not seen anything moving lower but the steady increases over the past couple wee...

Beef harvest dropped again last week to 618K compared to 627K the week prior.  Beef processors or determined to keep this market tight and with production numbers like these they are being successful.  I expect we will see these reduced harvest numbers right to the end of March.  This is not a panic situation but as I said last week, buy beef now, waiting until next week will cost you more money. ...

Beef production is dropping with intentions to tighten the supply. The winter storm moving through the Midwest has prices moving up daily. Don't overreact, but buy what you need now. Chicken prices seem to have stalled for a moment and production numbers are still very strong making chicken a great value. Not much is happening in corn, soy oil is moving up a bit, and there isn't much goi...

This week, 7 new reports affecting 17K birds putting the total birds so far at 58.4 million.  There is continued discussion and opinion that avian flu will continue to affect domestic poultry through 2023 and could continue to  be around every year.  With the virus surviving the heat of summer and freezing winter it looks like this virus is not fading away.  Those rosy outlooks for the second half...

February is the lowest demand month for beef and usually we will see some of the lowest prices of the year.  Harvest last week was a robust 659K head, up from the prior week of 646K head. This seems to be a bit strong production for February, I don’t see the demand supporting this.  Something to certainly watch the next couple weeks.  Ribeyes and Tenderloins are doing their seasonal reductions and...

Wings and random breasts are inching higher which is really a good thing.  It is not healthy for the industry when suppliers are losing money on every bird they produce which has been the case.  Production is pulling back just enough to push the market slowly higher.  Chicken is still a great value so I would still be featuring chicken.  The weekly doom and gloom of Avian flu report…  9 new report...

So this market is turning out like I expected, just about three weeks late.  Ribeyes and tenderloins and giving ground, even though they are historically high for January they are heading in the right direction… down.  Strip Loin and Short Loins are picking up that market pricing moving higher along with grinds. Chucks and rounds seem to be just churning steady right now.  Production last week was...

Beef is finally starting to look like I would expect a couple weeks ago.  They didn’t move much, but I’ll take a move lower on ribeyes and tenderloins as a start.  Finally.  I think they have a long way to go in only a few short weeks before Valentine’s Day props up pricing again, but for right now, ribeyes and tenderloins are moving lower.  Strips on the other hand are moving higher just as expec...

This time in January we should be seeing substantial discounting on ribeyes and tenderloins.  Not seeing any movement lower.  The premium holiday items are holding onto all those gains in December.  With the discounting on those middle meats we traditionally see increases on chuck, rounds strips and especially ground beef.  We are seeing those traditional seasonal increases.  With a total harvest...

So arctic temperatures and bad weather across the country took my expectations and just stomped on them.  Holiday shortened beef production was 566K head down from the previous full week of 629K head. We have another week of two weeks of shortened work weeks which will be making product tight over the next couple weeks.  Already those anticipated drops in Tenderloins and ribeyes are not happening....

Thanks for joining me today, three days before Christmas and nine days to a new year.  Let’s start with looking at beef this week.  Beef production last week was down to 629 thousand head harvested compared to the previous week 652 head. Production will be holiday shortened even more the next couple weeks and I do expect January to start out at lower weekly slaughter levels.  Next week is it for h...

Looking at pork, and bellies had a roller coaster week up and down but as of yesterday, back down to close at $84.58 up from last week at $80.49.  At these levels the only questions is how much to buy, not if to buy.  The rest of the pork complex is similarly low and offering great value.  I often say pork is a value protein to offer and it is so true right now.   Episode Sources: https://www.urne...

Chicken's been a bargain for several weeks and to my surprise, we were not at the bottom of this market.  Wings moving lower again.  This is not a healthy market.  Packers losing money on every bird they sell but I don’t see this turning just yet.  There are deals to be had on chicken, breasts, tender, wings.  Packers just need to keep the meat moving.  Production is lowering but only slightl...

Avian Flu continues to plague the poultry industry.  For the last week, 15 new reports affecting 1.9 million birds.  Total birds removed from the food supply this year:  52.4 million, and we are not done.  As the southern migration continues bird flu is now being reported in Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia.  The CEO of Hormel, Jim Snee,  which owns Jennie O turkey expects bird flu to affect su...

The focus is on turkey for next week.  There are turkeys to sell, but the price is pretty stiff.  Avian Flu has hit turkey hard this year and unlike to previous outbreak in 2015 this one is not over yet.  The avian flu numbers for the week, are relatively modest with 9 new reports affecting 50K birds.  Total birds affected so far this year, 50.3 million.  While turkeys were hit very hard, chicken...

This beef market is moving up pretty aggressively and with production holding up pretty strong with 668K head harvested last week, down only 5K from the week before it seems to me a bit early.  Next week everyone is talking turkey.  Grading is not great, with premium products at premium prices and short on the market.  Select grade and commodity choice product are showing much more available.  I t...