Market Trends with Tracy

Beef production was 673K head for last week up 13K head over the 660K head from the week prior.  Liquidating continues in some breeding stock which will be affecting production over the next couple years as the herd size is reduced. With expensive feed and drought moving animals to harvest instead of continuing to feed them is often the decision.  Even with heavy production this market is moving h...

The Chicken market is what I’d almost call a collapse.  Production is continuing strong, demand is not. Egg placements continue to inch up each week.  The hatch rate is inching up too putting more chickens on the market.  Wings, breast, tenders are all down again for next week.  Take advantage of these low prices but this is not a healthy level for the producers.  Now the weekly bird flu numbers. ...

Beef production was 664,000  head for last week, same as the week prior.  Chucks and rounds have found some support with pricing more up a bit.  Roast weather is coming soon and retail feature will be pulling on these items.   Chicken is declining again. I thought we might be close to the bottom but apparently we have a bit farther to go. Wings are down, breast and tenders down as well. We are get...

Beef prices continue to move lower, but probably not for too much longer. Other than tenderloins, it's a great time to feature beef. Looking at poultry, chicken wings are still a great value, while breasts and tenders continue to go lower. As with beef, it's a great time to feature chicken. Avian flu continues to spread, totaling 421,000 birds removed since last week. This brings the tot...

Happy Episode 100! This year’s avian flu continues to spread.  Since last week add 14 new reports affecting 249K birds,  most of them  turkeys and a total so far of 46.7 million birds removed from the food supply. Southern migration of wild birds from Canada going south continues to spread the virus.  We may well see cases continue to expand through the fall.   I’ve nothing encouraging to say abou...

This year’s avian flu outbreak just won’t let up.  With the southern migration in full swing it seems cases are picking up again.  This week, 14 new reports of bird flu affecting 265K birds, mostly turkeys bringing the total birds lost since the beginning of the year to 45.1 million. Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Find us on Social Media : Instagram Facebook YouTube Twitter LinkedIn Sav...

A USDA report released Monday lowered harvested corn acreage by 1 million acres and lowered yield per acre estimates 2.9%.  That same report reduced soy bean acreage by 600,000 acres and reduced yield per acre 1.4%.  These reductions are attributed to hot dry weather during the last few weeks of the growth cycle.   Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.co m Find us on Social Media : Instagram Face...

Last week we had reports of 390K birds removed from the food supply, mostly turkeys, a worrying event and hopefully not a trend.  BUT – it is a trend.  This week we have new reports removing 3.1 million birds – 3 million egg laying chickens in Ohio and another 80K turkeys.  Seems we may be getting a double dose of bird flu this year.  Fall migration will be starting soon and this is not a great wa...

Grains  Corn closed @ $7.43 just up from last week’s close of $7.35.  Initial harvest reports are a bit troubling and weather has not been helping.  There is concern yields could be substantially reduced which could be pushing prices higher once the harvest is in hand.  Something I will be watching.  Soy oil is holding pretty steady, there was a small increase earlier this week but nothing to alar...

First of all, Happy Birthday to Tracy's Mother!  On Tuesday bellies dropped $48 and with yesterday’s close at $144 has dropped $56 since last week’s close of $200.  Elevated cold storage numbers, hows that for a turn around from last year…  plus expected increasing production as the weather cools and packers are dealing with the classic issue, sell or smell it.  This is definitely a buying ti...

Continuing to look at Avian Flu, only two farms reporting cases over the last week, with 130 birds affected.  I’m about done with Avian Flu so would like it to please just go away.  The damage is done, the recovery in process.  If we don’t see any flare-ups of new cases in the fall we should be looking good come January. Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Find us on Social Media : Instagram...

Pork bellies set a new record high on Tuesday closing at $242.  Yesterday’s close came off that high to close at $215 which is up from last week’s $209.  This is expensive territory for bacon.  If you have to have it, I’d buy just what you need, but I’m not expecting this market to hold for too long. Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Find us on Social Media : Instagram Facebook YouTube Twi...

Continuing to look at Avian Flu and we added a new state this past week as Florida makes the 38th state with reported cases, including the Florida operation only 450 new cases reported.  Looking forward to a week with no new cases.  Chicken market is tanking.  Like dropping like a rock and back to costs we are used to seeing, dropping several dollars per case next week.  Production is still steady...

I keep hoping Avian Flu is on its last leg and new cases are certainly down, but over the last week 42,000 head were reported infected, mostly turkey operations in Utah.  That brings our total number of birds lost to over 40,100,000.  Maybe this week’s nationwide heat wave will help end the new cases.  We hold at 37 states with reported cases.  Looking at chicken and QSR and foodservice demand are...

Episode Sources:   https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/daily-pork-reports https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html   https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/gm80hv35d?locale=en#release-items https://www.urnerbarry.com/ https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ http://www.cheesereporter.com/prices.html   Learn more on our website, Savalfoods.com Find us on Social Media : In...

Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected steady for three weeks now.  Only 306 new cases reported since last week. the last 13 reports have all been small backyard farms, the last major producer report was almost a month ago on June 9.  We have a few very tough months to get through as turkey and egg producers look to restock their farms and get production going again.  Recovery will take...

Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected steady for three weeks now.  Only 350 new cases reported since last week so we stand at about 40 million birds lost to the virus.. Turkey products and egg products will continue to be tight to unavailable for several months. Chicken production is holding pretty steady but demand is not.  Boneless breasts continue to lower prices again this week, the...

Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected.   For the first time since the initial cases reported in February, we have gone a whole week with no new cases reported.  The damage done hold at just over 40 million birds removed from the food chain.  We will feel the repercussions from this for months to come, the two industry segments most affected are chicken egg layers and turkeys.  Expect ve...

While the news is indicating that there is an upcoming beef shortage, you may want to take that with a grain of salt. Beef Production was very strong after the holiday shortened week with 674,000 head harvested, compared to 603,000 the week prior. Avian Flu holds at 36 states with cases detected.   New cases for the week only 170 birds so we stay right around 40 million total birds removed from th...

Let’s look at some markets and start again with Poultry and the continuation of the Avian Flu outbreak.    Poultry: Avian Flu now has been detected in 36 states same as last week. After last week only reporting 600 birds this week we had a large egg laying operation in Colorado depopulate 1.9 million birds pushing the overall total to just shy of 40 million birds.  My hopes for this outbreak to be...

We are seeing the wind-down of Avian Flu with only one state, Georgia, added this week making the total number of states 36.  Three farms in Iowa have had their quarantine lifted and are starting to repopulate their operations. Chicken breasts and tenders continue higher with no stop in sight. Wings remain the bargain here. Turkey is scarce and expensive. Specialty eggs are in tight supply. Beef p...

Avian Flu now has been detected in 35 states same as last week.  Just over  38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up only about 24K for the week, the smallest total in weeks.  Most affected are egg layers which accounts for about 76% of all avian flu cases.  Turkeys have been hit hard as well, availability will be impacted on turkeys and turkey products. ...

Avian Flu now has been detected in 35 states adding one more state to the list.  Around 38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up only about 100K for the week. One contact in the turkey business told me we just need 7 straight days over 70 degrees and the virus will die.  Again, the damage is done but hopefully we are at the end of this outbreak.  Not to b...

Avian Flu now has been detected in 34 states adding two more states to the list.  Around 38 million birds have been depopulated and removed from the food supply which is up about 1 million for the week. We are seeing slower growth each week and as I understand it this virus is not hardy in warmer weather.  Heading into summer we should see things calm down, but the effects of this outbreak should...

There is expectation that Indonesia will reopen their palm oil exports, which will be a big help, but I don’t see soy coming back any time soon.  A look at wheat and markets are moving higher again on poor plantings and very strong demand.  I know I say it every week, but stay well ahead of your flour needs.  Episode Sources: https://www.barchart.com/ https://www.uniprofoodservice.com/ https://www...