Market Trends with Tracy

BEEF As expected, beef pricing for middle meats is moving lower. Strips, ribeyes and tenderloins all coming off a bit from pre-holiday highs. I expect we will see this continue right to the end of the month. Grinds on the other hand are keeping prices high and will be moving higher. Ground beef is still the value in the beef complex even with advancing prices. Chucks and rounds will be coming off...

BEEF Beef production last week was 537K head, up from 526K the week prior. We are still in that zone of keeping supplies tight to keep pricing up. The animals that are processed have been in the feed lots longer, growing larger; current cattle are running almost 50 pounds heavier than this week last year. This trend will continue. We are at the big summer holiday. I do expect beef prices to settle...

BEEF We hit Independence Day next weekend and the start of the “dog days of summer." Once we get clear of the holiday I do expect we will see a market reset, especially on middle meats. I’m not looking for a crash, but I do expect we will see a steady decline over the month of July possibly right into August. There is some data to suggest ground beef is hitting a bit of a ceiling for customer...

BEEF We’ll start again with the New World screwworm. We now have 6 confirmed cases in Texas and 1 in New Mexico. Affected animals are a dog, a goat and 5 cattle. While our border with Mexico has been closed for months now to live animals, Texas cattle is now barred from export to Canada and I’d expect that list to continue to grow. This is a growing issue that will affect our beef industry for the...

BEEF Let's start with the bad news. We’ve been expecting this to happen for several months, yesterday the USDA announced the discovery of the New World Screw Worm infecting a calf in La Pryor, Texas, about 50 miles north of the border. This will keep the border closed to live animals for the foreseeable future, keeping pressure on the already small domestic beef herd. The New World Screw worm...

BEEF I’ve been saying for weeks to stay ahead of your needs, and I’m going to reiterate, stay ahead of your needs, as demand does seem to be ticking up a bit. Weekly harvest is not moving up to help meet that demand. Last week’s harvest was 528K head, down from the prior week’s 535K head. While middle meats are struggling to move higher, ground beef is on the march higher every day. Retail ground...

BEEF We are rolling into the summer demand for things that go on the grill. The most common will be burgers, and I do think we will see burgers to continue higher every week, probably all the way to Independence Day. Production numbers continue in the same volume we’ve seen for months now. 535K head harvested last week, 527K the week prior. I really don’t see that improving anytime soon. We are se...

BEEF Beef is ready to move higher into the high demand summer season. Beef harvest however continues with lower production numbers, 527K head last week, 534K the week prior. We may see small increases too over the next few weeks but I’m not seeing anything to make this market change the current mood of tight supplies and increasing prices. The move higher has begun with this week’s trading. Middle...

Thanks for joining me today, let's look at a few markets heading into Mother’s Day weekend. Let's start as usual with beef.    We’ve had a couple weeks of relatively stable pricing, and I think we’ve got another week, maybe two before summer fun and demand start pushing prices up. Beef harvest last week was 534K head, up a few from the 529K the week prior.  That keeps inventories very ti...

Try to say " Avian Flu Front " five times fast, go ahead, give it a whirl.  The beef market is continuing the market correction started last week.  Middle meats were leading this market higher, and now they are leading this market lower.  Ribeyes, Tenderloins, Strip Loins, all lower for the week. Rounds and Chucks coming off as well.  The one area the reduced harvest numbers are really p...

We are well into spring now and some things are shaking in the beef market.  First good news, though the strike is not settled, the JBS workers are returning to work while negotiations continue. Good news, beef harvest increased to 533K still running about 10% behind last year, supplies remain very tight.  Good news, market prices seem to be pushing back a bit, maybe this is moving higher too quic...

Beef production continues to keep inventories tight and prices pushing higher.  Beef harvest last week was 520K head, up a bit from the 503K the week prior but still not enough to fill the demand.  Middle meats, those strips loins, tenderloins and ribeyes continue to push higher every week.  Thin meats, think flank, skirt, sirloin flap, all are in tight supply and pushing higher every week.  Grind...

Beef demand is not backing down, consumer demand for protein continues to increase even as our beef industry continues to contract. No doubt aided by the JBS strike, beef production was only 508K head last week and I expect we will see similar numbers for this week. The market is tight, there is just not that much beef coming to market. Prices are moving higher pretty much across the board. Middle...

BEEF: I've been saying for a few weeks now it would not be a bad idea to keep well ahead of your needs. I’m doubling down on this as the reduced production we’ve seen this year is impacting product availability and pricing. Inventories will be tighter still with reduced production and increasing demand. Last week’s harvest was 521k head, running a full 10% behind last year’s reduced productio...

Beef production continues restrained to keep prices up and packer losses as small as possible. 516K head produced last week, same as the previous week. Heading into spring this is keeping the beef supply tight and prices supported. We have the smallest beef herd since 1951 when there were half as many people in the country. That is not turning around anytime soon. Regarding current market prices,...

Production is steady. Prices dipped. But nearly 5 million birds are gone – and migration season is just getting started. BEEF: Harvest rose to 541K head, but we’re still running well behind last year. Middle meats are inching higher, especially strips, while chucks soften and grinds slip again (for now). Production isn’t growing. Plan accordingly. POULTRY: Production is up 2% year over year, but t...

Beef is tight. Bellies are climbing. Birds are under watch. The seasonal shift may bring more than warmer weather. BEEF: Production is down 10% YTD, with last week at just 516K head. The smallest herd in 75 years keeps supply tight as spring demand builds. Strips and ribeyes look ready to lead a March run – and thin meats may feel it first. POULTRY: Production is up 2%, but hatch rates under 79% r...

Valentine’s Day is here, and while roses get the spotlight, the real story is in the markets. Ribeyes and tenderloins are holding steady, strips keep climbing, pork bellies are inching higher, and poultry hasn’t lost its upward momentum. Add in a little lift from soy and a steady dairy tone, and this week feels like a seasonal shift — not a surge, but a quiet build as we move from winter toward sp...

From tightening beef supplies and climbing poultry prices to the first real lift in pork bellies and a dairy market finding its footing, this week feels like a shift. Nothing is running away yet, but momentum is building, and the next few weeks could look very different. BEEF: Tight production is keeping beef supported, with strips still climbing and Valentine’s Day putting a floor under ribeyes a...

Markets are slowly building momentum as Valentine’s Day demand begins to take shape. Beef inches higher, chicken keeps climbing, pork waits for its next move, dairy tests a rally, and grains remain quiet. The coming weeks will show whether this momentum sticks — or stalls. BEEF: Production pulled back last week as middle meats begin their seasonal climb toward Valentine’s Day. With strips already...

Winter’s grip on the markets is starting to loosen. Beef has turned higher sooner than expected, chicken keeps climbing, pork begins its spring setup, dairy shows signs of life, and grains remain frozen in place. This early shift may be subtle — but it could shape the market mood for the weeks ahead. BEEF: The post-holiday slide is officially over, and beef is turning back up sooner than expected....

January is doing what it does best – pulling markets in opposite directions. Beef splits between falling middle meats and rising end cuts, chicken prices wake up, pork stays a value, grains soften, and dairy pushes into rare territory. These early-year moves may look quiet, but they’re setting up what comes next.  BEEF: The New Year split continues — middle meats are sliding while end cuts quietly...

The calendar flipped, and the markets followed. Beef is splitting seasonally, chicken is finally waking up, pork remains a value with signs of strength, grains won’t budge, and dairy keeps testing new lows. This is the quiet part of the year where small shifts now can mean big moves later. BEEF: The New Year reset is in full swing — middle meats are sliding fast while roasts and grinds quietly pus...

The holiday push is wrapping up, and the markets are starting to show their hand. Beef is splitting in two directions, poultry feels steady but uneasy, pork stays a value, grains won’t budge, and dairy may finally be finding a floor. With January right around the corner, the next two weeks could set the tone for everything that follows. BEEF: Holiday pricing is making its final stand, and the beef...

Holiday demand reminded the markets who’s in charge — beef hit rare production levels while premium cuts held firm. As poultry and grains wait it out, pork stays a value and dairy keeps sliding into bargain territory. With the calendar about to flip, the real question is what holds… and what finally gives in the new year. BEEF: Holiday demand pushed production to a rare 600K head, but premium cuts...