Market Trends with Tracy

BEEF We are in the holiday season, the year will be done in eight weeks. The big Thanksgiving holiday season is just a few weeks away. Last week’s beef harvest was 543K head, just under the prior week of 546K head. Inventories are tight.  Middle meats are kind of treading water this week - I think we’ll have another week or so before the move up restarts in earnest. We’ll see thin meats, especiall...

DAIRY Two weeks of the dairy markets rocking higher, and we’re done with that.  Through Thursday’s close, block is holding steady, barrel is up two, and butter took a decline by five. We’ll see what’s next, but we should have a fairly steady market heading into November.  BEEF Beef production continues in the same basic range we've been in for months. 546K head harvested last week, just down...

DAIRY Last week the block market went off, jumping up $.19/# by the CME close on Friday. This week, not letting up with the block up $.20/# through Thursday’s close. Now the barrel is joining block, up $.19/# with today’s close while butter is up a respectable $.04/#. When markets rocket up like this, they usually stall pretty quickly, so while we do have to deal with these big increases, I think...

DAIRY Last week just a minor sign this market is about at bottom. This week, dairy is rocking higher. Through Thursday’s close, butter finally gets on track up two, barrel is up three, while block, the driver of natural cheese costs, is up a whopping 16 cents. Exports are helping here and demand is finally pushing up. Let's keep an eye on this, it's been a while since the cheese market w...

BEEF Beef harvest rebounded last week up to 548K head, compared to the prior week of 484K head. Still running well behind last year. With continually larger animals being harvested, we are down on weight by 5.2 percent and down by number of animals harvested by 7.5 percent. While we do see signs of herd rebuilding, that relief is well into 2028 before we would see any sizable increases in herd ava...

BEEF Last week’s beef harvest was 484K head, seems like a holiday shortened week but it was not. Prior week was 529K head; this is keeping inventories tight.  The pattern we’ve seen the last few weeks continues. Middle meats, led by ribeyes, are moving higher still. We are already higher on middle meats than last year’s holiday season, I wonder how high they can push this market as we head to the...

BEEF We will start with a little good news. The Santa Teresa, New Mexico border crossing for live cattle reopened today and so far, no issues. The next border crossing will also be in Columbus, New Mexico; no firm date yet but I’d expect if this opening continues to go well, we should see the next one in about 30 days.  We are about to finish September with middle meats, especially ribeyes, leadin...

BEEF The tight inventories coupled with good demand is slowing this market decline. Continuing to be exempt from market declines, middle meats being led higher by ribeyes continue to move higher. Strips and tenderloins following along.  Chucks, rounds, and grinds did get the memo and are moving lower. Thin meats - briskets, flanks, sirloin flap - also finding their pricing inching down. This shoul...

BEEF We are in a post-Labor Day declining market. The exception is no one seems to have told strip loins and ribeyes. Pretty much everything in the beef complex is moving lower for next week, except ribeyes and strip loins. Demand is holding both items from moving lower. Even tenderloins are moving down for next week.  Grinds down, rounds down, chucks down. I think this should continue to the end...

BEEF Last week imports of live cattle from Mexico resumed from one port of entry in Arizona. That was “paused” on Tuesday this week for equipment malfunctions.  Everyone involved emphasized this is not an animal issue but an equipment issue. They expect to reopen in three days. A second crossing is scheduled to open in New Mexico in three weeks. We are heading to Labor Day weekend. I’ve been sayin...

BEEF Let's start with a little good news. On Monday, the border in Arizona was opened for beef cattle. Monday had 716 head presented for inspection. 692 were approved with 24 rejected. Similar numbers on Tuesday with 634 inspected, 588 approved and 46 rejected. Estimated weekly crossing is expected to be about 3,000 head per week. Not enough to make a big change but it is progress. A second c...

BEEF This beef market is pushing higher still. I’m still expecting a market correction after Labor Day, but man, getting to Labor Day is not going to be cheap. Beef harvest continues in the same quantities we’ve seen for months, 517K head last week, 509K the week prior keeps beef inventories tight. Ribeyes and tenderloins have been leading this charge higher, and I don’t see that changing. Strips...

BEEF: Last week’s harvest was 59K head. I thought the prior week of 512K was low, so let's take another step down, with packers keeping pressure on availability with less product available.  This puts our year-to-date output down 8.1%.  A pretty sizeable decline.  They seem to be pretty effective, as pricing is moving higher next week; I think we’ll continue on this ramp-up right into Labor D...

BEEF: I’m going to start with the weekly beef harvest.  Last week’s total was 512K head; the prior week was 528K head.  I don’t recall this small a weekly harvest on a non-holiday week.  Packers will continue to try and tighten availability to support pricing.  They are having some success as Ribeyes and tenderloins are moving higher heading to Labor Day.  Overall, though prices are moving lower,...

BEEF Let’s start with some really good news. For the first time since 2018 the US cattle herd increased by 200K head to 94.2 million head, this however is not the start of beef herd building we’ve been looking for. The increases are in dairy cows, the beef herd actually declined 200K head to 28.5 million head. I do see some signs of heifer retention with ranchers reserving additional head for bree...

BEEF The beef market is continuing lower this week though I do see some slowing in the declines. Production continues restrained with 525K harvested last week, down from 529k the week prior. We may see even lower production numbers this week and moving into August to try and bolster some of price drops. Middle meats continue to lead the way lower, mainly the strip loin; tenders and ribeyes both lo...

BEEF The beef market continues its summer pull back. Overall market tone is moving lower. I expect we will see this through the end of the month; come August we’ll be starting to look at fall demand. Unbelievable, already talking about fall. Last week’s harvest was 529K head, up from the holiday week of 448K. Middle meats are leading prices lower, especially ribeyes and strips, tenderloins are dow...

BEEF As expected, beef pricing for middle meats is moving lower. Strips, ribeyes and tenderloins all coming off a bit from pre-holiday highs. I expect we will see this continue right to the end of the month. Grinds on the other hand are keeping prices high and will be moving higher. Ground beef is still the value in the beef complex even with advancing prices. Chucks and rounds will be coming off...

BEEF Beef production last week was 537K head, up from 526K the week prior. We are still in that zone of keeping supplies tight to keep pricing up. The animals that are processed have been in the feed lots longer, growing larger; current cattle are running almost 50 pounds heavier than this week last year. This trend will continue. We are at the big summer holiday. I do expect beef prices to settle...

BEEF We hit Independence Day next weekend and the start of the “dog days of summer." Once we get clear of the holiday I do expect we will see a market reset, especially on middle meats. I’m not looking for a crash, but I do expect we will see a steady decline over the month of July possibly right into August. There is some data to suggest ground beef is hitting a bit of a ceiling for customer...

BEEF We’ll start again with the New World screwworm. We now have 6 confirmed cases in Texas and 1 in New Mexico. Affected animals are a dog, a goat and 5 cattle. While our border with Mexico has been closed for months now to live animals, Texas cattle is now barred from export to Canada and I’d expect that list to continue to grow. This is a growing issue that will affect our beef industry for the...

BEEF Let's start with the bad news. We’ve been expecting this to happen for several months, yesterday the USDA announced the discovery of the New World Screw Worm infecting a calf in La Pryor, Texas, about 50 miles north of the border. This will keep the border closed to live animals for the foreseeable future, keeping pressure on the already small domestic beef herd. The New World Screw worm...

BEEF I’ve been saying for weeks to stay ahead of your needs, and I’m going to reiterate, stay ahead of your needs, as demand does seem to be ticking up a bit. Weekly harvest is not moving up to help meet that demand. Last week’s harvest was 528K head, down from the prior week’s 535K head. While middle meats are struggling to move higher, ground beef is on the march higher every day. Retail ground...

BEEF We are rolling into the summer demand for things that go on the grill. The most common will be burgers, and I do think we will see burgers to continue higher every week, probably all the way to Independence Day. Production numbers continue in the same volume we’ve seen for months now. 535K head harvested last week, 527K the week prior. I really don’t see that improving anytime soon. We are se...

BEEF Beef is ready to move higher into the high demand summer season. Beef harvest however continues with lower production numbers, 527K head last week, 534K the week prior. We may see small increases too over the next few weeks but I’m not seeing anything to make this market change the current mood of tight supplies and increasing prices. The move higher has begun with this week’s trading. Middle...