Market Trends with Tracy

Beef holiday pricing is in full swing and that's not changing any time soon. This will move up again next week. Buy now, waiting will cost you. There is plenty of pork product available with pricing moving lower on most cuts. Chicken production is down again this week, but pricing on party wings, breasts, and tenders is also moving down. The surge in Avian Flu continues with new cases reporte...

Corn closed at $4.81 a second week below $5, Harvest is 59% complete.  Export demand is less than robust, I think we may have finally gotten away from $6 corn, at least for the foreseeable future.  This is excellent news for the whole protein industry built around cheap corn.  Soy harvest is 76% done and though there is some uncertainty on international demand, pricing is pretty steady at least ri...

Let’s get to the bad news first.  Avian Flu is back.   Since last week, 10 new cases were reported, totally 189K birds affected. That’s over half a million birds the last two weeks lost from the food supply, most of which were Turkeys.  Savalfoods.com  |  Find us on Social Media :  Instagram ,  Facebook ,  YouTube ,  Twitter ,  LinkedIn

Avian Flu is back this week with five new cases reported, totaling a loss of 379,000 birds. Hopefully, this will be isolated and short-lived, but we’ll keep watching. Chicken production is down another 3% making the supply tighter, especially in wings. The dairy markets are finally cooling off. Beef harvest was up this week but is still much lower than last year. Expect prices to start moving high...

Butter has set a record high every day since last Wednesday. In beef, we are still seeing tight supplies and restrained production. Ground beef is moving higher but everything is else is moving up in preparation for the holidays. We are seeing lower production in poultry as well. Breasts and tenders are moving lower and wings are holding on to recent gains. On the avian flu front, one new case was...

Through Thursday's  close butter is up 34 and I expect Friday will have continued increase.  The cheese markets are doing the exact opposite, barrel is down 10 and block is down 7. What I see is tightness in cream availability, especially in the Midwest where most butter plants are located.  I still don’t see this as a strong enough reason for butter to shoot up like this.  When markets do th...

A mixed bag in chickens this week as wings continue their assent higher each week. Random breasts did come off as expected and are moving lower and tenders are holding steady for the week.  I’m finally seeing lower production numbers around 2% below last year, is 2% that big a deal?  In chicken yes, that represents about 5 million birds NOT being produced.  I think we will see continued tight supp...

Bellies closed yesterday at $124 down from last week $129.  The pricing on bellies has a "buy sign" though I don’t think we will see a run up anytime soon.  Butts, loins, and ribs are all moving a little higher, but nothing to be concerned with.  Hams will be in demand as packers procure their needs for the holidays.  Savalfoods.com  |  Find us on Social Media :  Instagram ,  Facebook , ...

Beef production has been restricted for months now and this doesn't seem like it's going to change. The traditional holiday spread seems to be starting early this year. Strip loins are the bargain on middle meats. Poultry pricing continues higher as well, with a potential for more upside on wings. One week of corn below $5 was all we got. Large crop expectations in grains should keep the...

Year to date, beef harvest is down 4.2% and this will continue into 2024. It's a tough time to buy beef with prices moving up in almost every category. Poultry prices continue higher again for next week as well. We've almost gone a month with no new Avian Flu cases reported. Corn has finally fallen, which is good news for everyone in the food business. Pork bellies closed at $114 this we...

Restricted beef production levels are having the desired effect. Pretty much every category is moving higher. Hopefully, after Labor Day, this market will settle down. Buy what you need now, next week will be more money. Chicken pricing is up on wings, breasts, and tenders. Chicken is still a good protein value, but buy what you need now. This market will continue to go up. For some good news, the...

Beef production continued with another light week which keeps product tight and pricing steady to moving higher. We could see a change in this after Labor Day. It's a buy-what-you-need situation, but you may find a deal out there. For chicken, it's another week of pricing moving higher on wings, breasts, and tenders. Even with increased prices, chicken is still a great protein value. No...

Poultry prices continue to rise on all cuts and categories in the chicken world. Demand for fresh chicken is increasing as well. There is still value here but look for continued increases in chicken. For the third week in a row, one new Avian Flu report from the same county in NY affects 800 birds. Beef production continues lower keeping any price reductions from happening during this season of we...

Hot, summer weather is slowing down production on beef and chicken, making prices inch higher in most circumstances. There are not many bargains to be had in beef, but waiting to buy will cost you money. Chicken is still a good value in protein, but we are seeing a steady move higher. Another Avian Flu report was made in the same county in New York with 490 more birds infected. Still the only new...

Tight supplies and inflated prices in beef will be an ongoing issue. For next week, a few lower middle meats, again not big moves but moving lower. Grinds, chucks, and rounds are holding up. One more week of buy what you need, but next week should see better pricing. Chicken remains the value in proteins., with strong production numbers and prices just inching up. Sadly, on Tuesday we had the firs...

The beef market continues to slowly move lower on middle meats, thin meats, chucks, and rounds. Ground beef holds steady. Buy product if you need it, but waiting a week may save you money. Chicken production continues strong and prices are moving higher in wings and breasts. Tenders are moving a little lower. We have gone over two months with no new Avian Flu cases reported. Grains are seeing a to...

Pork… here is the hot market.   Bellies closed yesterday at $158 up from $141 last week.  Bacon producers are raising prices daily.  I thought $160-$170 might be a peak come August but I may be undervaluing this market.  Getting bacon bought is not a bad idea.  On the butt side we seem to have peaked for the current market and moving lower but again, temper any expectations for lower costs.  It wi...

Chicken continues to be the protein value.  No changes for next week in wings, boneless skinless random breasts or tenders.  Production numbers continue strong so there is product available and at good values.  With production numbers continuing this strong, I don’t see much change to this pattern right now.  A quick note that we continue with no new Avian Flu reports.  All good news on the poultr...

Pork is recovering from the crazy few weeks prior to Prop 12 implementation which is now pushed to January 1.  I mentioned Massachusetts and their new regulations which go into effect July 12.  A quirk or feature of the MA rules is no pork can be in transit through the state that doesn’t meet there new regulations, so product destined north of MA will have to route around the state.  Looking at ac...

California Prop 12, the animal welfare bill, was deemed constitutional by the Supreme Court on May 11 of this year.  The new law has an effective date of July 1.  California processors, retailers, foodservice, and anyone dealing with pork have been buying anything they can get their hands on and getting it shipped prior to the July 1 deadline.  This has tossed the whole industry upside down, price...

Last week the overall beef market took a sharp turn higher and this week is more of the same.  Every cut of beef is moving higher again this week.  Post holiday harvest was a pretty modest 615K head which is up from the holiday week of 573K head but these restricted harvest numbers continue to pressure the market higher. Middle meats are up strong, rounds, chucks, thin meats especially continue to...

The end of last week beef pricing started heating up and this week it is not stopping.  Demand is finally pushing these reduced harvest numbers and in turn pushing pricing higher.  On the holiday shortened week the beef harvest was 573K head, down from the prior week’s 625K head.  You will see increasing prices across the board on beef products.  Especially affected are the thin meats, briskets, f...

Beef harvest declined to 625K head last week, compared to the prior week’s 642K head.  Year-to-date production is running about 5% below last year making a pretty tight market for available product. It's a good time to buy what you need but I would not be extending beyond that.  Production continues pretty strong keeping chicken well supplied. We should see this pattern continue. As for Avian...

We got one week of corn under $5 last week, that did not last long, corn closed at $6.37 and I don’t know why.  There have been canceled export orders from not only China, but now Mexico as well.  Mexico has added Brazil to their supplier list.  The current crop is 81 % planted and all indications are for a bumper crop.  We will begin the silly season where the market will change just on a weather...

Corn closed at $5.89. Down from last week's $6.21, and the first time under $6 since November 2021. China canceled several more loads of corn contributing to the decline.  Additionally, china is buying corn for the first time from South Africa.  An expected big crop this year, reduced demand for export and we could be seeing much lower corn prices once we get into new crop.  The new crop is 6...