Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

The effective Fed funds rate has dipped to 3.63 percent, down from 3.64 percent in May, while the daily rate sits at 3.62 percent. Lucas and Luna examine what this subtle shift means for monetary policy in June 2026, against a backdrop of CPI at 4.2 percent and a yield curve that's steepening. They drill into the interest on reserve balances rate — currently at 3.65 percent — and why the gap betwe...

On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down a strange disconnect in financial markets: consumer prices just hit 4.2 percent annual inflation — the highest in three years — yet the ten-year Treasury yield has actually fallen over the past week. They explore the gap between the CPI headline and what bond traders are really pricing in, from the Fed's effective rate at 3.63 percent to...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna drill into the surprising 1.1% jump in wholesale prices for May 2026—the biggest monthly gain in over a year. They connect this producer-price surge to the consumer inflation numbers that hit 4.2% annually, and ask whether the Fed's steady hand on rates is enough. With the ten-year breakeven inflation rate creeping up to 2.31%, the hosts examine ho...

Episode 51 of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo digs into the surprising April JOLTS report: job openings jumped to 7.6 million, the highest in over a year. Lucas and Luna explore why openings are soaring while unemployment stays at 4.3 percent, how the surge is concentrated in sectors like hospitality and healthcare, and what the rising quits rate signals about worker confidence. They also connect the...

The May wholesale inflation print landed at 1.1 percent month-over-month, far above expectations, driven by a surge in energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down why the Producer Price Index matters more right now than the consumer-side CPI reading of 4.2 percent annual inflation. They trace how wholesale energy gains ripple through delivery surcharges, retail margins, and e...

Wholesale prices surged 1.1% in May, far more than expected, driven by a spike in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna dig into what this PPI number really means for June CPI, the Fed's next move, and whether the market is misreading the inflation trajectory. They break down why the core PCE — not headline CPI — remains the Fed's true north star, and why the yield curve's recen...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down the May 2026 wholesale inflation surprise — the Producer Price Index rose 1.1% month-over-month, far above expectations, driven by a surge in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. They explain why this matters for the consumer price index, which hit 4.2% annual inflation in May, and what it signals about the Fed's path forward. The h...

The yield curve is steepening again, but this time it's not signaling a recession. Lucas and Luna dig into the mechanics behind the move: the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.49 percent is up while the two-year yield at 3.62 percent is flat, pushing the spread positive after two years of inversion. They explain why this steepening is driven by term premium — investors demanding more compensation for h...

The Producer Price Index jumped 1.1% in May, double expectations, with energy costs spiking amid the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down why this wholesale inflation signal matters more than usual for the Fed's next move—and what it could mean for the June CPI print. They connect the wholesale price surge to rising jobless claims, sticky core PCE, and the ECB's first rate hike since 2023. If...

The European Central Bank just raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, citing surging energy costs tied to geopolitical instability. In this episode, Lucas and Luna break down why the ECB moved now, how it diverges from the Fed's current pause, and what the widening policy gap means for global inflation and currency markets. They examine the wholesale price spike in the US, the 4.2% C...

With CPI hitting 4.2% in May — the highest in three years — headlines are screaming inflation. But Lucas and Luna argue the real story is quieter: Core PCE, the Fed's preferred gauge, is running at just 2.8% annualized over the past three months. They unpack why the gap between CPI and PCE matters, how services inflation is stickier than goods deflation, and what the 10-year breakeven rate of 2.34...

With the S&P 500 down 4% in a week and headline CPI hitting 4.2% annually, Lucas and Luna unpack why this inflation reading feels different than the 2022 surge. They drill into the bond market signal: the ten-year yield climbing to 4.54% while breakeven inflation is actually falling. The hosts break down how the composition of inflation matters more for equities than the headline number, and why s...

The headline unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, and the overall labor market looks healthy. But inside the data, small businesses are trimming payrolls at a pace not seen since the pandemic. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest NFIB survey and ADP payroll breakdown to understand why Main Street is pulling back while corporate America keeps hiring. They explore the role of rising interest rates,...

Initial jobless claims jumped to 225,000 in late May, the highest level since early this year, even as the unemployment rate holds at 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna unpack what rising claims might be telling us that headline payrolls aren't — including emerging weakness in interest-rate-sensitive sectors like construction and manufacturing. They also discuss how the Fed's current policy stance intera...

New York Fed survey data shows household financial concerns hitting their highest level since July 2022, despite a still-low 4.3% unemployment rate. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect: why are consumers more anxious than the headline jobs numbers suggest? They explore the role of persistent inflation, dwindling pandemic savings, and rising long-term unemployment. With the ten-year breakeven in...

Unemployment is 4.3 percent and job openings surged to 7.6 million. So why is long-term unemployment—people out of work for 27 weeks or more—spiking to levels not seen since the 2010-2014 recovery? Lucas and Luna dig into the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household financial worries at their highest since July 2022. They connect the dots between the JOLTS data,...

Lucas and Luna dig into a growing divergence in the labor market: even though the headline unemployment rate has held at 4.3 percent for months, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits has jumped sharply. They explore what initial jobless claims at 225,000 and a surge in long-term unemployment really signal about the health of the U.S. economy. Using fresh data from early June 2026,...

Initial jobless claims jumped to 225,000 in late May, up from 212,000 the prior week — the highest level in over a year. Meanwhile, the headline unemployment rate sits at 4.3% and hasn't budged. Lucas and Luna dig into what's really happening beneath the surface: a labor market that looks stable in the monthly numbers but is showing cracks in the weekly data. They explore how rising layoffs in tec...

The headline unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, but a hidden shift is underway: long-term unemployment — people out of work for 27 weeks or more — is climbing sharply. On Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest labor market data to explain why this divergence matters more than the top-line jobs number. They break down the May JOLTS report showing job openings surging to 7.6 million,...

On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down the recent steepening of the yield curve—the 10-year Treasury yield is now 4.54 percent while the 2-year sits at 4.28 percent, widening the spread to 26 basis points. They argue that this steepening, often a classic recession warning when the curve inverts, is actually a sign of something different in mid-2026. With the Fed holding rates...

This episode of Macro Tuesdays drills into the ongoing yield curve inversion — the 2-year Treasury yield is at 4.28%, the 10-year at 4.54%, keeping the spread negative since mid-2022. Lucas and Luna discuss why this historically reliable recession signal hasn't yet delivered a downturn, whether the lag is different this time, and what the recent flattening of the curve means for growth expectation...

With the May jobs report coming Friday, most analysts are focused on the headline payroll number. Lucas and Luna dig into the data no one is watching: the surge in long-term unemployment that hit 1.8 million in April, even as job openings rebounded to 7.6 million. They explain why the hidden shift in labor market composition matters more than the topline, and how it connects to the Fed's next move...

The May jobs report is coming Friday, but beneath the headline payroll numbers lies a troubling trend: long-term unemployment is surging. While the overall jobless rate holds at 4.3 percent, the number of workers out of work for 27 weeks or more has jumped sharply. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data, including the JOLTS report showing job openings surged to 7.6 million in April, and explain w...

Initial jobless claims jumped to 225,000 in the last week of May 2026, up from 212,000 the prior week — the largest one-week spike in over a year. Most analysts are brushing it off as noise ahead of Friday's payrolls report. But Lucas and Luna dig into why this number, paired with the surge in long-term unemployment, might be the first real crack in a labor market that has looked bulletproof. They...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April—the highest in nearly two years. But they argue this isn't the unalloyed good news it might seem. They connect the surge to the recent ADP payroll report showing 122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, weaker than the openings spike suggests. The hosts explain how the compositio...