Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

Private payrolls came in at 122,000 in May, beating expectations. But the bond market barely flinched. The 10-year yield actually ticked down on the news. Lucas and Luna break down why strong jobs data isn't moving yields — and what that says about the market's real concern. They dig into the disconnect between headline payrolls and the bond market's focus on inflation expectations, the Iran war p...

The April JOLTS report showed job openings jumping to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years. Lucas and Luna dig into what's behind the surge—sector by sector—and why it doesn't necessarily mean the labor market is overheating. They examine the split between white-collar and blue-collar openings, the role of energy inflation in reshaping hiring, and what the data says about the Fed's next mo...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data for April 2026, which showed job openings surging to 7.6 million—the highest in nearly two years. They explore why this spike is happening despite softening consumer sentiment and sticky inflation, and what it means for the Fed's rate path. Lucas breaks down the composition of the openings: which sectors are driving t...

In Episode 26 of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzle in the April JOLTS report: job openings dropped to 6.87 million, the lowest since early 2021, yet layoffs remain low and hiring barely budged. They explore the 'Great Reshuffling' narrative — workers finally settling in — and what it means for wage growth, Fed policy, and the odds of a soft landing. With the unemployment rate at 4.3%...

The economy added 115,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate held at 4.3 percent, but JOLTS data shows job openings have dropped by 56,000 in a single month. Lucas and Luna dig into what's really happening: companies are hiring less aggressively but not laying off workers. They explore the 'hold steady' strategy many employers are using, how it's different from past slowdowns, and what it mea...

Lucas and Luna dig into why energy inflation in 2026 is behaving differently from previous oil shocks. With the Iran conflict adding $450 to the average household's monthly bills, core PCE holding at 3.3 percent, and 10-year breakevens actually falling, they explore how the pass-through to core inflation has changed. Lucas points to the rise of renewable capacity and a more services-heavy economy...

The US economy added jobs in April and the unemployment rate remains low at 4.3 percent, yet households are drawing down pandemic-era savings at an accelerating pace. In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack the paradox: how a solid labor market coexists with shrinking personal savings, rising credit card debt, and persistent inflation. They examine the latest data on nominal GDP g...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a counterintuitive signal in the bond market: the ten-year Treasury yield has dropped to 4.45 percent even as core PCE inflation remains sticky at 3.3 percent. They explore why falling long-term yields might actually reflect a growing disinflation bet by institutional investors, not a recession panic. Key data points include the ten-year bre...

Lucas and Luna break down the new data showing the Iran conflict is costing the average US household $450 more per month on gas and energy. They explore how this energy surcharge is feeding into core inflation, why the Fed is stuck between fighting inflation and protecting growth, and what the recent drop in the 10-year breakeven rate tells us about market expectations. With real GDP still growing...

In episode 20 of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down the hidden economic impact of the Iran war on American consumers. With energy inflation more persistent than expected, the average U.S. household is paying an extra $450 annually on gas and utilities. They explore how this 'double scar' from past inflation shocks and geopolitical instability is reshaping spending patterns, why the Fed's pr...

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been bugging bond traders all week: the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.45 percent even as the core PCE price index came in at 3.3 percent annualized — exactly the kind of sticky inflation that should push yields higher. They look at the data: job openings falling to 6.9 million, initial jobless claims creeping up to 215,000, and the Fed funds rate stuck...

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge just landed at 3.3 percent annualized — right on consensus — but the bond market rallied anyway. Lucas and Luna break down why a 'no surprise' number actually shifted expectations for rate cuts later this year. They drill into the 10-year yield's sharp drop to 4.45 percent, the steepening yield curve, and what Fed officials like Kashkari and Goolsbee are signali...

On Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has dropped to 2.39% even as core PCE inflation runs at 3.3%. They explore what the bond market's inflation expectations signal about the Fed's next move, why breakevens diverging from actual CPI matters for rate policy, and how investors should read the gap between the two-year Treasury yield at 3.59% and the t...

The Russell 2000 has surged 3.6% over the past five days while the S&P 500 gained just 1.2%. Lucas and Luna drill into what's driving this rotation: falling long-term yields, a stabilizing labor market, and the end of mega-cap tech dominance. They discuss why small caps historically lead after rate-cut pauses, how the 10-year Treasury yield dropping below 4.5% is fueling the move, and whether this...

The Russell 2000 has surged 3.6% in the past week while the S&P 500 gained only 1.2%. Lucas and Luna explore what this small-cap outperformance signals about the market's next phase. With the Fed on hold at 3.64% and the yield curve flattening as long-term rates drop, investors are rotating out of mega-cap tech into value and domestic cyclicals. The hosts discuss why small caps often lead at turni...

Consumer sentiment hit a fresh record low in May, even as the stock market keeps grinding higher. Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: record-low sentiment versus a roaring Russell 2000. They look at the specific forces driving the divergence — inflation expectations at their highest in decades, a labor market that is cooling but not collapsing, and a consumer base that is feeling the pinch despi...

The Russell 2000 just jumped 6.1% in a week while the S&P 500 lagged at 2.2%. Lucas and Luna drill into what's driving the rotation from mega-cap tech into small-cap value. They unpack the numbers: the two-year Treasury yield dropping 10 basis points, the Fed holding rates steady at 3.64%, and the JOLTS data showing job openings slipping to 6.87 million. The conversation explores whether this is a...

On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna examine how the AI economy is shifting labor market dynamics, focusing on wage growth for blue-collar workers. With average hourly earnings rising to $37.40 and job openings declining, they explore whether automation is complementing or replacing workers. The hosts dig into the latest JOLTS data and nonfarm payrolls, asking if the blue-collar boom...

The inverted yield curve has been screaming recession for over two years, yet the U.S. economy keeps growing. Lucas and Luna dig into why the traditional yield-curve indicator may be broken in a world of quantitative tightening, large fiscal deficits, and a Fed funds rate stuck at 3.64 percent. Using live data from May 25, 2026 — including the 10-year Treasury at 4.56 percent and the 2-year at 4.2...

Lucas and Luna dig into the divergence between strong GDP growth and record-low consumer sentiment. With real GDP growth at 2.0% and core PCE inflation still above target, they explore why households feel so pessimistic despite a solid labor market. They break down the role of energy prices, war fears, and the housing affordability crisis, and ask whether the consumer is truly as fragile as sentim...

The effective federal funds rate has been pinned at 3.64% since January. Lucas and Luna dig into why the Fed isn't moving rates despite sticky inflation and a record-low consumer sentiment. They unpack what 'higher for longer' actually means for borrowing costs, the yield curve, and the economy—using concrete data like the 4.3% unemployment rate and the 2.4% ten-year breakeven inflation rate. No h...

This episode of Macro Tuesdays breaks down the conflicting signals from the bond market in late May 2026. The two-year Treasury yield is at 3.59%, above the ten-year's 4.56% — an inverted yield curve that's been flashing recession for over three years. Yet the five-year note is yielding less than both. Lucas and Luna examine what this 'three-part inversion' means for the economy, drawing on the la...

On Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna explore the growing disconnect between a resilient macro economy and record-low consumer sentiment. With Q1 2026 real GDP growth at 2.0% and the S&P 500 near all-time highs, why are Americans more pessimistic than ever? They drill into the latest University of Michigan survey — the worst reading on record — and unpack the role of inflation expectations, geopolitic...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising trend highlighted by a recent CNBC headline: the AI economy is rewriting the American Dream, and blue-collar workers are poised to win. With the unemployment rate holding at 4.3% and job openings declining slightly to 6.866 million, they explore how AI is creating new opportunities in sectors like manufacturing...

On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the stunning consumer sentiment number released Friday: the University of Michigan index fell to a record low of 57.9 in May, driven by escalating Iran war fears and stubborn inflation expectations. They discuss how the five-to-ten-year inflation outlook jumped to 3.2%, what this means for newly sworn-in Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and why the...