Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna explore a puzzling disconnect in the U.S. labor market: job openings rose to 7.6 million in May 2026, yet hiring remains stagnant and the labor force participation rate hit a 50-year low. They dig into the data, discuss how skills mismatches, geographic barriers, and long-term structural changes are creating a job market that looks tight on paper b...

In Episode 103 of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising divergence between consumer spending on durables and the broader economic picture. With real GDP growth at 2.1% but consumer durables spending softening, they explore what the data says about household confidence, the role of high interest rates, and why the bond market's yield curve inversion is flashing a warning. Using th...

Episode 102 of Macro Tuesdays digs into a surprising divergence: while nominal GDP and real GDP growth have picked up, consumer durables spending is flashing a slowdown signal. Lucas and Luna examine the latest durable goods orders data, the drop in consumer sentiment that hasn't translated into core PCE stickiness, and what this means for the Fed's rate path in July 2026. They dissect why the bon...

Lucas and Luna dig into the yield curve's latest move. With the 2-year Treasury yield at 3.68% and the 10-year at 4.54%, the spread has widened to 86 basis points — the steepest since mid-2022. They explore what the bond market is signaling about growth, inflation, and the Fed's next move. Lucas points to the term premium debate and how investors are demanding more compensation for holding long-te...

In this milestone 100th episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack why services inflation—not goods prices—is now the Federal Reserve's primary headache. With core PCE at 2.9 percent and the ten-year breakeven stuck at 2.25 percent, the hosts examine how rising rents and sticky supercore services are keeping the Fed on hold at 3.63 percent. They break down the JOLTS data showing 7.594 millio...

Goldman Sachs estimated the 2026 World Cup could add 40,000 jobs to the June payrolls report. Lucas and Luna dig into that number — how a short-term sporting event distorts the monthly jobs data, whether the 57,000 headline was really just 17,000 once you strip out the tournament, and what that means for reading the labor market correctly. They look at past World Cup impacts, compare it to Census...

Episode 98 of Macro Tuesdays. As Real GDP growth accelerates to 2.1 percent annualized and unemployment drops to 4.2 percent, the yield curve is flashing a warning: the 10-year Treasury yield surged to 4.53 percent this week while the 2-year barely budged, steepening the curve by the most since March. Lucas and Luna dig into this divergence — why the bond market seems to be pricing in a stickier i...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna explore a puzzling disconnect in the current economy: real GDP growth has rebounded to an annualized 2.1 percent, yet nonfarm payrolls added just 57,000 jobs in June. Why is the economy producing more output without producing more jobs? The hosts dig into the data, examining rising productivity, the shift toward capital-intensive industries, and wh...

Lucas and Luna dig into the June 2026 jobs report — specifically the shockingly low 57,000 payrolls number. They look past the headline to find a quieter story: the labor force participation rate dropping to its lowest outside the pandemic era. They connect that participation decline to the curious fact that job openings actually rose slightly, and ask whether the Fed's 3.63 interest rate is reall...

Lucas and Luna unpack the surprising drop in the labor force participation rate to its lowest in 50 years outside of Covid, even as the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% in June. They explore why workers are leaving the job market, how participation has fallen across different age groups, and what this means for inflation and Fed policy. The episode ties together JOLTS data showing 7.6 million job op...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a puzzling disconnect in today's economy: the Fed has held rates at 3.63 percent for over a year, inflation is still running hot at 3.4 percent core PCE, yet the stock market is at all-time highs. They zero in on one overlooked factor—the Fed's interest on reserve balances (IORB) at 3.65 percent, which is effectively paying banks to park mon...

Lucas and Luna break down the steepening yield curve that has bond traders rethinking the rate outlook. With the 10-year Treasury at 4.49 percent and the 2-year at 4.23 percent, the spread has widened to 26 basis points — the biggest gap in over a year. They explore what's driving long-term yields higher: fiscal deficit concerns, term premium repricing, and the market's growing doubt that the Fed...

The June 2026 jobs report delivered a stunning surprise: only 57,000 new jobs, far below expectations. Lucas and Luna dig into the numbers, exploring why hiring suddenly cooled while the unemployment rate actually fell to 4.2 percent. They examine the conflicting signals between the payroll survey and the household survey, the role of the World Cup in temporarily boosting employment, and what this...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the June 2026 jobs report that showed only 57,000 new payrolls while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent. They explore why a weak headline number might actually signal a tighter labor market, how falling labor force participation is distorting the data, and what the Fed is likely watching versus what the markets are pricing. With...

The labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years outside of the Covid era, even as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent in June. Lucas and Luna dig into what's behind this disconnect: the 57,000 payrolls gain, the rise in discouraged workers, and what it means for the Fed's next move. They explore whether structural shifts like early retirement and caregiving a...

On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dive into the startling drop in labor force participation that hit its lowest level in 50 years outside of the COVID era. With a June payrolls gain of just 57,000 and unemployment at 4.2%, they explore why workers are leaving the job market even as job openings remain elevated at 7.6 million. The hosts unpack the disconnect between headline job gro...

The June jobs report showed payrolls growth of just 57,000 and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent, but the biggest story was hiding in plain sight: the labor force participation rate fell to its lowest level in 50 years outside of the pandemic. Lucas and Luna dig into why people are leaving the workforce, where they are going, and what this means for the Fed's rate path. They connect...

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle in the latest JOLTS data: job openings rose to 7.59 million in May, yet hiring barely budged and the unemployment rate actually ticked down to 4.2 percent. They explore how employers are posting roles but not filling them—a phenomenon tied to skill mismatches, geographic sorting, and lingering pandemic-era caution. The hosts contrast this with the big-picture slowd...

On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack a rare market signal: the yield curve is steepening even though the Fed hasn't budged from 3.63 percent. The ten-year Treasury yield hit 4.47 percent last week, while the two-year stayed at 3.70. That's the widest gap since early 2023. The hosts explore two competing narratives — one about term premium and deficit fears, the other about a po...

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest initial jobless claims data — down to 215,000 — and ask why layoffs remain so low even as other indicators like private payrolls and consumer spending show clear softening. They explore the 'labor hoarding' phenomenon, the pandemic-era lesson that kept companies reluctant to cut headcount, and what it means for the Fed's next move. Using the ADP miss and the dive...

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been haunting macro watchers in mid-2026: core PCE inflation has been stuck near 3.4 percent for months, while the unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent — historically a level that should cool price pressures. They break down why this time is different, pointing to shelter costs that refuse to normalize, a tight labor market that's boosting service-sector wa...

In Episode 83 of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been quietly building all spring: the Fed Funds rate has been stuck at 3.63 percent since March, and Core PCE just hit 3.4 percent — the highest since October 2023. How can the Fed hold rates steady while inflation reaccelerates? The hosts examine the relationship between the interest-on-reserves rate, the effective Fed Funds...

Core PCE inflation hit 3.4 percent in May 2026, the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna drill into why this persistent inflation is different from the 2021-2023 spike: services inflation is now the driver, not goods. They examine the breakdown—shelter, medical care, and financial services—and what it means for the Fed stuck at 3.63 percent. The bond market's reaction tells a story too: ten-...

Lucas and Luna explore why middle-income wages have stagnated despite record job openings and solid GDP growth. Using recent data—4.3% unemployment, 7.6 million job openings, and average hourly earnings up only 2.9% year over year—they dissect the structural forces splitting the labor market. From the hollowing out of mid-skill roles to the premium on AI literacy, this episode offers a clear-eyed...

Lucas and Luna examine a striking pattern in the latest May 2026 data: while average hourly earnings rose to $37.50, middle-wage workers are barely keeping pace. They look at the February 2025 Atlanta Fed wage tracker showing a 4.2 percent median gain—then break down why that headline masks a growing gap between low-end and high-end wage growth. Lucas connects it to a JPMorgan Chase Institute stud...