Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo: Weekly Economic News, Policy, and Market-Moving Data

In Episode 79 of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna examine a puzzle for mid-2026: the Fed funds rate has held steady at 3.63 percent for over eight months, even as core PCE inflation climbed to 3.4 percent in May. They break down why the Fed isn't raising rates despite higher inflation, focusing on the gap between the policy rate and the neutral rate estimate, and what recent FOMC minutes reveal abou...

Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data released April 1, 2026 showing 7.6 million job openings—up sharply from 6.89 million the month before. But the unemployment rate is 4.3 percent. How can openings surge while hiring stays flat? They break down the mismatch between the types of jobs available and the workers who need them, using the gap in manufacturing and hospitality as a concrete case. They...

Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that has macro economists scratching their heads: core PCE inflation hit 3.4 percent in May 2026, the highest since October 2023, even as real GDP growth cooled to 2.1 percent and job openings surged to 7.6 million without a matching pickup in hiring. They examine the role of lagged shelter costs, sticky service inflation, and the Fed's preferred gauge, the 10-year...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna unpack the latest JOLTS data showing a surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April 2026, even as actual hiring barely budged. They explore what this gap means for wage pressures, Fed policy, and the labor market's strange new normal. With core PCE inflation hitting 3.4% and the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63%, they connect the dots betwee...

Core PCE inflation hit 3.4% in May, the highest since October 2023—yet the 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.37%, barely budging. Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect: markets are buying the Fed's story that inflation is transitory, while wage data and consumer spending suggest the economy is running hotter than Powell wants. They unpack the role of services inflation, rent lags, and why the bond...

Even as GDP growth slows and the labor market shows cracks, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge hit 3.4% in May — the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna break down the dissonance: shelter costs that refuse to budge, a rising services inflation component tied to insurance and medical care, and what it means for the Fed's next move. With the Fed funds rate stuck at 3.63% and the yield curve...

Lucas and Luna break down the May 2026 core inflation reading of 3.4 percent — the highest since October 2023 — and explain why the Fed's preferred PCE gauge is flashing a different signal than headline CPI. They explore the role of housing services, the divergence between goods and services inflation, and what this means for the Fed's rate path with the fed funds rate stuck at 3.63 percent. Plus:...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle that's been confounding investors: inflation is running hot — CPI hit 334.0 in May and core PCE is creeping up — yet the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has actually ticked down to 2.18 percent. They explore why the bond market seems to be shrugging off higher consumer prices, looking at the role of the Fed's interest on reserve...

Factory job cuts in June 2026 are approaching levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis and the early Covid pandemic. Lucas and Luna examine what's driving the decline—weak global demand, the strong dollar, and automation—and what it means for the broader economy. They also look at the contrast with the booming small-cap sector and the services-driven labor market, and ask whether manufactur...

The Russell 2000 is up 1.2 percent this week while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are down. Lucas and Luna dig into why small caps are outperforming — and it's not just the inflation narrative. They look at the data: the yield curve is steepening, jobless claims are falling, and the Fed is on hold at 3.63 percent. But the real story is in the types of companies inside the Russell: banks, homebuilders, and...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna drill into a surprising new data point: factory job cuts in June 2026 are approaching levels not seen since the financial crisis and the early pandemic. With the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI signaling contraction and the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3 percent, the hosts ask whether this is a canary in the coal mine or a sector-specific correction....

The two-year Treasury yield is still above the ten-year yield, even as the Fed holds rates steady at 3.63 percent and the economy shows mixed signals. Lucas and Luna dig into why this inversion is lasting so long, what it says about market expectations for growth and inflation, and how it contrasts with the steepening curve elsewhere. They look at the gap between short-term and long-term rates, th...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into a curious moment for monetary policy: the Fed funds rate has been stuck at 3.63 percent for two months, even as real GDP growth rebounded to 1.6 percent and job openings surged to 7.6 million. They explore what that stalemate says about the central bank's new leadership under Kevin Warsh, the bond market's inflation expectations, and wheth...

In this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising JOLTS data showing 7.6 million job openings in April 2026, even as the unemployment rate holds at 4.3%. They explore why the numbers don't tell the whole story—focusing on the mismatch between openings and hires, the industries driving the surge, and what this means for job seekers in different sectors. With the S&P 500 at 7...

The Federal Reserve's effective rate has been anchored at 3.63 percent for months, even as GDP growth picks up, unemployment stays low, and the stock market hits new highs. Lucas and Luna dig into the data: Real GDP just climbed to 1.6 percent annualized, job openings surged to 7.6 million, and the yield curve is steepening—yet the Fed hasn't moved. They unpack the tension between strong economic...

Episode 64 of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo dives into a curious disconnect in the labor market: initial jobless claims just fell to 226,000 — near historic lows — while the unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, well above the 3.6 percent we saw two years ago. Lucas and Luna unpack what this divergence really means, focusing on the role of reduced layoffs in a tight labor market versus the challeng...

The unemployment rate in Nevada is 2.3 percent — roughly half the national average of 4.3 percent. In a labor market that many describe as cooling, that gap is striking. Lucas and Luna dig into why. The answer involves a specific post-pandemic migration pattern, a construction boom linked to federal CHIPS Act money, and a hospitality sector that's structurally different from the gig-heavy job grow...

The national unemployment rate sits at 4.3 percent, but Nevada's jobless rate is barely 2 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into the data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Nevada Department of Employment, Training and Rehabilitation to understand why. They look at the state's mix of construction, hospitality, and logistics, and what happens if the Iran ceasefire actually delivers lower energy...

Episode 61 of Macro Tuesdays digs into the Fed's effective rate sitting at 3.63%, unchanged for weeks despite cooling inflation and a surprise JOLTS surge. Lucas and Luna examine how the new Fed chair Kevin Warsh is navigating conflicting signals: job openings jumped nearly 11% in April while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3% and core CPI crept up. They explore whether the Fed is paralyzed by g...

This episode of Macro Tuesdays with Fexingo dives into the steepening yield curve that has markets buzzing in mid-June 2026. Lucas and Luna break down why the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury has widened to nearly 80 basis points, and what that really means for the economy. They challenge the common recession signal interpretation, pointing to the Fed's recent rate hold under new Cha...

The new Fed chairman's first meeting has already shifted how the bond market prices rate cuts. Lucas and Luna break down the five takeaways from Kevin Warsh's debut FOMC gathering on June 18, 2026, and what the Treasury curve's recent moves tell us about where inflation and growth are actually headed. The ten-year yield sits at 4.45 percent, the two-year at 3.66, and the spread has steepened aggre...

Kevin Warsh just chaired his first FOMC meeting as Fed chair. Lucas and Luna break down what Warsh's policy leanings mean for the path of interest rates — and specifically for the housing market. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.46 percent and the effective Fed funds rate at 3.63 percent, the bond market is signaling something different than the dot plots of the past. Lucas explains why Warsh...

Lucas and Luna unpack the recent steepening of the yield curve, which has many investors wondering if it signals recession or something else entirely. With the 2-year yield at 3.65% and the 10-year at 4.46%, the spread has widened to 81 basis points—far from the inverted territory of 2023-2024. But Lucas argues this steepening is driven not by recession fears but by term premium repricing as the F...

Lucas and Luna explore the surprising message behind the steepening yield curve in June 2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.43 percent and the two-year at 3.63 percent, the spread has widened to eighty basis points—a level that historically signals economic optimism. But this time, bond markets are pricing in sticky inflation and a Fed that may stay higher for longer, not a booming recover...

The Russell 2000 is up 4% in five days while the S&P 500 treads water. Lucas and Luna dig into the rotation from large-cap growth to small-cap value, examining what the data says about economic breadth, Fed policy, and whether this rally has legs. With the ten-year yield falling to 4.43% and the two-year at 3.63%, the flattening yield curve is sending a nuanced message. They look at JOLTS job open...