Macro Pulse

Financial market volatility has remained elevated over the past several days as investors attempted to weigh a modest improvement in sentiment—driven by a potential, if partial, retreat by the US administration from its aggressive tariff stance—against a still-cloudy global outlook. In our charts this week we focus on: Global growth signals US capex intentions South Korea's trade Gold prices The U...

US policy decisions have continued to generate volatility in financial markets, reflecting mounting investor unease about the global economic outlook. Consensus forecasts for growth in 2025 have certainly been revised down significantly, while inflation expectations—particularly in the US—have moved higher. In our charts this week we focus on: Consensus growth forecasts Consensus inflation forecas...

The global economy received a brief reprieve on April 9th, as President Trump announced a 90-day pause on his sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs. However, intensifying US-China trade tensions continue to cast a long shadow over the economic outlook. In our charts this week we focus on: China and US trade tariffs US investment in intangibles US trade deficits and relative demand High-tech trade and US c...

The return of protectionist trade policies under the new US administration has added a significant layer of uncertainty to an already fragile global landscape. This was dramatically amplified on April 2nd, when the administration announced a sweeping package of tariffs on a broad range of imports from key trading partners—including the EU, China, and several emerging markets. These measures were m...

Financial markets remain gripped by heightened uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, slowing US growth, and broader fears of global economic instability. In our charts this week we home in on: ·       Manufacturers’ input prices ·       Supply chain pressures and UK inflation ·       The dollar and US growth ·       Electricity prices in selected major economies ·       Living standards (and en...

US equity markets have underperformed relative to global peers in recent weeks, as investor sentiment has deteriorated in response to weaker-than-expected growth data and growing concerns about the Trump administration’s economic policies. The administration’s renewed push for tariffs, alongside fiscal expansion and tighter immigration policies, has fuelled stagflation fears, compounding the uncer...

Download the free charts and commentary here: https://haverproducts.com/charts-of-the-week/ The recent financial market volatility, marked by sharp swings in global bond yields and equity market repricing, reflects growing uncertainty about the trajectory of the US economy amid a rapidly shifting policy environment. The US administration’s latest tariff measures, and their conflicting objectives,...

View the charts here: https://haverproducts.com/charts-of-the-week/ Financial markets have experienced heightened volatility in recent days, with investor sentiment rattled by rising US recession risks, escalating global trade tensions, and mounting geopolitical uncertainties. Sharp decline in US stocks, lower yields coupled with weaker confidence data reflect growing concerns that recent trade an...

The global economy remains in a delicate position, with financial markets exhibiting resilience despite key policy uncertainties, geopolitical sensitivities, and a fragile pace of economic growth across many regions. In our charts this week we focus on: ·       US growth surprises ·       US trade in goods versus services ·       Global policy uncertainty and the dollar ·       Defence spending in...

Financial markets have remained relatively calm in recent days despite potentially disruptive US trade policy shifts and incoming data indicating that inflationary pressures have been lingering. Investor sentiment suggests a wait-and-see approach, with markets appearing confident that central banks can navigate inflation risks without triggering sharp economic slowdowns. In our charts this week we...

Copy and paste this link into your browser to download the free chart pack and follow along with the podcast:  https://haverproducts.com/?sdm_process_download=1&download_id=25814 President Trump’s tariff policies have been a major driver of financial market volatility in recent days, sparking sharp swings in equities and currencies. While the administration has temporarily reversed its proposa...

In an era where timely data is everything, Now-Casting Economics—Haver’s newest data partner—is redefining macroeconomic forecasting. In this episode, Jasper McMahon, co-founder and CEO of Now-Casting, joins us to explore how their automated models provide real-time GDP, CPI, and macroeconomic estimates for major economies worldwide. Discover how point-in-time data enhances forecasting precision a...

Financial markets have enjoyed a notable lift in sentiment over recent days, driven by renewed optimism about the domestic economic policies of a new US administration. Investors have certainly been cheered by early signals of a pro-growth strategy, with the energy sector taking centre stage. In our charts this week we home in on: ·         Energy and labour markets ·         Electricity prices in...

A steep sell-off in global bond markets has dominated the financial headlines over the past week or so, drawing intense scrutiny from investors and policymakers alike. Although weaker-than-expected inflation data from the US and UK have managed to stop the rot for now, anxiety remains high. Investors are certainly on edge about the broader drivers of this rout and its implications. In our charts t...

Investors have returned to focusing on several familiar themes so far this year including the resilience of the US economy, the implications of a new US administration, simmering geopolitical tensions, and the productivity potential of AI. The steep climb in global bond yields that’s unfolded over recent weeks additionally suggests that inflation concerns and debt sustainability issues have re-sur...

Investors have shifted their attention back to the economic data and monetary policy over the past few days, marking a shift from recent weeks when political developments took centre stage in shaping financial market sentiment. While this week’s decision by the US Fed to cut policy rates by 25 bps was widely anticipated, the accompanying commentary and forecasts have heightened concerns that US mo...

Economic forecasts for next year largely hinge on the assumption of a soft landing for the world economy, but this outlook is anything but certain. Recent weeks have seen a sharp rise in uncertainty, driven in part by the prospect of significant — and potentially disruptive — policy shifts from a new US administration. Meanwhile, persistent supply-side pressures, including the challenges of climat...

The macroeconomic implications of a new Trump administration are sparking fervent debate. Financial markets have responded to last week’s news with heightened expectations of some fiscal stimulus which could spur US growth in the near term. However, that boost may come at the cost of higher domestic inflation, more elevated public debt, and a ripple of adverse effects across the world economy. In...

The policy decisions of a new US administration could potentially impact the global economy in a number of ways with key areas that might be affected including trade and tariffs, geopolitical stability, fiscal policy, deregulation, and immigration policy. In our charts this week we focus on: ·       Global equity market responses ·       Economic policy uncertainty ·       The consensus for policy...

Some unexpected resilience in the US economy and particularly in the labour market has continued to reinforce soft landing narratives over the past few days. At the broader global level, weaker-than-expected inflation data have also been reinforcing the view that most major central banks will continue to loosen monetary policy in the period ahead. In our charts this week we focus on: ·       Marke...

In our podcast this week Andy Cates discusses the outlook for the Indian economy with Sharmila Whelan, the founder of Westbourne Research and a seasoned Global Geopolitical-Macro Strategist. Key areas that are addressed include:   ·       The sustainability of India’s growth trajectory  ·       The impact of recent structural reforms on improving India’s business environment and investment climate...

A soft landing narrative has continued to shape sentiment in financial markets over recent days, supported by several factors. These include upbeat corporate earnings news, a sharp drop in oil prices, weaker-than-expected inflation data and US labour market resilience. In our charts this week we focus on: ·       Oil prices and yields ·       UK inflation ·       China and traded goods price infla...

Last week’s stronger-than-expected US employment report have combined with some comments from FOMC members suggesting the Fed may be in no great hurry to reduce interest rates next year to generate a big repricing in financial markets over the past few days. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and the plight of China’s economy have additionally been a key focus for many investors. In our c...

In our podcast this week we discuss the European economic outlook with George Buckley, Nomura’s Chief European Economist. We home in on a number of topics including this week’s euro area inflation data, the broader outlook for the euro area and UK, as well as what needs to be done to repair some of the structural fault-lines. We touch too on the escalation of geopolitical turbulence in the Middle...

The incoming data over this week have painted a more downbeat picture of the global economic outlook. But despite these weaker signals, financial markets have taken this news in their stride, possibly due to growing confidence that central banks will still manage to engineer a soft landing for the global economy. In our charts this week we home in on: ·       The global business cycle ·       US a...