Macro Pulse

The global economy remains in a delicate position, with financial markets exhibiting resilience despite key policy uncertainties, geopolitical sensitivities, and a fragile pace of economic growth across many regions. In our charts this week we focus on: ·       US growth surprises ·       US trade in goods versus services ·       Global policy uncertainty and the dollar ·       Defence spending in...

Financial markets have remained relatively calm in recent days despite potentially disruptive US trade policy shifts and incoming data indicating that inflationary pressures have been lingering. Investor sentiment suggests a wait-and-see approach, with markets appearing confident that central banks can navigate inflation risks without triggering sharp economic slowdowns. In our charts this week we...

Copy and paste this link into your browser to download the free chart pack and follow along with the podcast:  https://haverproducts.com/?sdm_process_download=1&download_id=25814 President Trump’s tariff policies have been a major driver of financial market volatility in recent days, sparking sharp swings in equities and currencies. While the administration has temporarily reversed its proposa...

In an era where timely data is everything, Now-Casting Economics—Haver’s newest data partner—is redefining macroeconomic forecasting. In this episode, Jasper McMahon, co-founder and CEO of Now-Casting, joins us to explore how their automated models provide real-time GDP, CPI, and macroeconomic estimates for major economies worldwide. Discover how point-in-time data enhances forecasting precision a...

Financial markets have enjoyed a notable lift in sentiment over recent days, driven by renewed optimism about the domestic economic policies of a new US administration. Investors have certainly been cheered by early signals of a pro-growth strategy, with the energy sector taking centre stage. In our charts this week we home in on: ·         Energy and labour markets ·         Electricity prices in...

A steep sell-off in global bond markets has dominated the financial headlines over the past week or so, drawing intense scrutiny from investors and policymakers alike. Although weaker-than-expected inflation data from the US and UK have managed to stop the rot for now, anxiety remains high. Investors are certainly on edge about the broader drivers of this rout and its implications. In our charts t...

Investors have returned to focusing on several familiar themes so far this year including the resilience of the US economy, the implications of a new US administration, simmering geopolitical tensions, and the productivity potential of AI. The steep climb in global bond yields that’s unfolded over recent weeks additionally suggests that inflation concerns and debt sustainability issues have re-sur...

Investors have shifted their attention back to the economic data and monetary policy over the past few days, marking a shift from recent weeks when political developments took centre stage in shaping financial market sentiment. While this week’s decision by the US Fed to cut policy rates by 25 bps was widely anticipated, the accompanying commentary and forecasts have heightened concerns that US mo...

Economic forecasts for next year largely hinge on the assumption of a soft landing for the world economy, but this outlook is anything but certain. Recent weeks have seen a sharp rise in uncertainty, driven in part by the prospect of significant — and potentially disruptive — policy shifts from a new US administration. Meanwhile, persistent supply-side pressures, including the challenges of climat...

The macroeconomic implications of a new Trump administration are sparking fervent debate. Financial markets have responded to last week’s news with heightened expectations of some fiscal stimulus which could spur US growth in the near term. However, that boost may come at the cost of higher domestic inflation, more elevated public debt, and a ripple of adverse effects across the world economy. In...

The policy decisions of a new US administration could potentially impact the global economy in a number of ways with key areas that might be affected including trade and tariffs, geopolitical stability, fiscal policy, deregulation, and immigration policy. In our charts this week we focus on: ·       Global equity market responses ·       Economic policy uncertainty ·       The consensus for policy...

Some unexpected resilience in the US economy and particularly in the labour market has continued to reinforce soft landing narratives over the past few days. At the broader global level, weaker-than-expected inflation data have also been reinforcing the view that most major central banks will continue to loosen monetary policy in the period ahead. In our charts this week we focus on: ·       Marke...

In our podcast this week Andy Cates discusses the outlook for the Indian economy with Sharmila Whelan, the founder of Westbourne Research and a seasoned Global Geopolitical-Macro Strategist. Key areas that are addressed include:   ·       The sustainability of India’s growth trajectory  ·       The impact of recent structural reforms on improving India’s business environment and investment climate...

A soft landing narrative has continued to shape sentiment in financial markets over recent days, supported by several factors. These include upbeat corporate earnings news, a sharp drop in oil prices, weaker-than-expected inflation data and US labour market resilience. In our charts this week we focus on: ·       Oil prices and yields ·       UK inflation ·       China and traded goods price infla...

Last week’s stronger-than-expected US employment report have combined with some comments from FOMC members suggesting the Fed may be in no great hurry to reduce interest rates next year to generate a big repricing in financial markets over the past few days. Geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East and the plight of China’s economy have additionally been a key focus for many investors. In our c...

In our podcast this week we discuss the European economic outlook with George Buckley, Nomura’s Chief European Economist. We home in on a number of topics including this week’s euro area inflation data, the broader outlook for the euro area and UK, as well as what needs to be done to repair some of the structural fault-lines. We touch too on the escalation of geopolitical turbulence in the Middle...

The incoming data over this week have painted a more downbeat picture of the global economic outlook. But despite these weaker signals, financial markets have taken this news in their stride, possibly due to growing confidence that central banks will still manage to engineer a soft landing for the global economy. In our charts this week we home in on: ·       The global business cycle ·       US a...

This week’s decision by the Fed to lower its key policy rate by 50bps was widely - but not universally - expected in financial markets. Still, the initial market response to this decision suggested that investors could be uncertain about what it implies for the economic outlook. In our charts this week we drill into the following factors: ·      The US yield curve ·      Global growth and inflatio...

The ECB’s decision to lower its key policy rates by 25 basis points this week, while widely anticipated, underscores a shift in focus, with central banks now prioritizing economic growth. This marks a departure from the post-pandemic period when monetary policy had been calibrated to curb inflation. In our charts this week we take a closer look at the global inflation scene. In particular we home...

With the summer vacation season now over in the Northern Hemisphere our charts this week shed light on recent and prospective developments in the world economy. More specifically we look at the following: ·       The global policy rate consensus ·       Inflation surprises and oil prices ·       The global business cycle ·       China’s excess capacity ·       Japan’s carry trade ·       US moneta...

Financial markets have remained in much calmer waters in recent weeks following the bout of volatility that earmarked the first week of August. That’s partly thanks to the release of some reassuring inflation data together with some dovish signals from several central banks. However, concerns about the global growth outlook persist. In our charts this week we focus on: ·         Copper prices and...

Some stability has returned to financial markets over the past few days thanks to some inflation-friendly economic data, some dovish signals from several central banks, and most notably the Bank of Japan, together with some upbeat corporate earnings news. That said, heightened geopolitical tensions are keeping investors anxious. Uncertainty is additionally being amplified by the potential for some...

Financial market instability has been in the ascendancy for much of the past few days as investors shunned risk assets and flocked to safe havens such as government bonds. A key catalyst was last Friday’s weaker-than-expected US employment report but there have been other factors - such as the BoJ’s monetary policy - that have amplified investor concerns. In our charts this week we home in on: ·  ...

Monetary policy normalisation has been a big theme over the past few days and, insofar as this signals that inflation is also returning to more normal levels, this ought to have been welcomed by global investors. Most importantly the Fed has signalled a high likelihood that it will cut its policy rate at its next scheduled meeting in September and, in doing so, kick start an easing cycle. In our c...

Politics has continued to dominate the headlines in recent days and will doubtless remain a big focus in the immediate weeks ahead. In the background, however, incoming data have suggested the outlook for the world economy has been darkening probably because more restrictive policy settings are now more forcibly weighing on aggregate demand. In our charts this week we focus on: ·         Markets a...