Macro Pulse

Global growth continues to hold up well, but this week's data flag a few fresh risks on the inflation and geopolitical front. In our charts this week: Global equity markets remain resilient Global PMIs point to a solid expansion US growth, not inflation, is keeping bond yields elevated Supply chains eased in June, but this week’s Middle East flare-up threatens that Extreme heat across Europe is a...

Oil prices are lower, the US-Iran memorandum is holding, and this week's euro area flash CPI came in below expectations. The near-term inflation picture is improving. But professional forecasters have barely moved their rate calls.

Oil is lower, Hormuz traffic is recovering, and the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets since March is unwinding. But calmer waters shouldn't be confused with resolved ones. Beneath the surface, some important new currents are running.   In our charts this week:   Equity market momentum and global growth surprises — a shifting picture Oil and US two-year yields have decoupled — th...

The US-Iran MoU has delivered a genuine moment of geopolitical relief — oil lower, yields down, risk assets recovering. But relief is not the same as resolution. Beneath the headlines, the underlying data continue to tell a more complex story.   In our charts this week:   US growth outperformance widens; Europe and China disappoint UK gilt yields, oil prices and the Bank of England's next move Glo...

The global macro backdrop has grown more unsettled. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has pushed back Fed easing expectations, a tech sell-off has rattled sentiment, and Middle East instability continues to keep energy markets on edge. In our latest Charts of the Week we examine:   GDP growth forecasts: broad deterioration, with Taiwan the striking exception Why 2027 inflation forecasts are...

The global macro backdrop continues to evolve in ways that would have surprised many investors at the start of the year. Expectations of widespread monetary easing have steadily receded as inflation has proven more persistent and economic activity more resilient than anticipated. In our charts this week we examine:   The growing bias toward monetary policy tightening Firming US labour demand Suppl...

Markets have remained relatively resilient as oil prices soften on renewed hopes surrounding the US-Iran negotiations. But beneath the surface, the macro backdrop remains fragile. In our charts this week:   • Europe remains vulnerable to higher energy prices • US consumer confidence continues to weaken • Not yet close to the pandemic-era liquidity shock • Broad money growth remains subdued • AI in...

Markets have swung back toward inflation angst as Middle East tensions and higher energy prices push bond yields higher again. But beneath the surface, the macro picture remains increasingly divided:   • US inflation surprises re-emerging • Global bond yields backing up • US labour bargaining power still weak • Oil prices elevated despite fading war fears • Core inflation still relatively benign •...

Talk of a potential easing in Middle East tensions has steadied markets. But scratch the surface, and the macro picture remains far from settled. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension:   • Global manufacturing holding up — despite higher energy prices • Shipping costs rising — supply chains tightening again • Oil production constrained — logistics, not demand, the issue • Policy expecta...

Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and a packed week of central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ), financial markets have remained remarkably resilient. But beneath that surface calm, the data are starting to tell a more complicated story. This week’s charts highlight the growing tension:   Front-end yields repricing “higher for longer” Real-time US recession risks —...

Financial markets have remained strikingly calm in recent weeks — despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a softening macro narrative, and elevated uncertainty. Volatility is subdued. Financial stress indicators are benign. Equities, for now, are choosing to look through both the conflict and the weaker data. That resilience feels… notable. Because beneath the surface, the macro b...

Signs of de-escalation in the Middle East have triggered a relief rally across financial markets—equities higher, yields retracing, volatility easing. But beneath the surface, the macro story is far from settled. In our Charts of the Week, we explore how the shock is beginning to ripple through markets, policy expectations and the real economy:   • Global growth and inflation surprises • Shifting...

Markets may be taking some comfort from tentative de-escalation signals in the Middle East, but the economic aftershocks are still working their way through—via energy prices, supply chains and heightened geopolitical risk. This week’s charts focus on:   • The global business cycle — momentum vs resilience • Elevated (and increasingly structural) uncertainty • Renewed supply chain stress • A more...

The sharp escalation in Middle East tensions is already reverberating through global markets — pushing energy prices higher, exposing the world economy’s deep reliance on fossil fuels, and prompting a rethink of how far and how fast central banks can ease.   In this week’s charts, we unpack the macro implications through:   Geopolitical risk dynamics The global energy mix Energy use and real oil p...

Financial markets have clearly rattled by the sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East over the past few days, with oil prices see-sawing, risk assets wobbling and investors reassessing the potential macroeconomic fallout from a potential energy shock. Yet, while it is still very early days, this week’s charts suggest that the global economic outlook has so far remained relatively resilient...

In this week’s Charts of the Week, we present six charts that illustrate some of the key issues, implications and points to watch, from the flare up of geopolitical instability in the Middle East. These include: Movements in geopolitical risk Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz Energy prices Global shipping costs and supply chain pressures Inflation surprises and oil The structure of gl...

Over the past few days, financial markets have been navigating a fresh wave of policy and geopolitical cross-currents, with the US Supreme Court ruling on executive tariff authority adding a new layer of uncertainty to the trade outlook. At the same time, the AI investment boom continues to provide an important cyclical tailwind, even as investors remain alert to valuation risks. In our charts thi...

Recent weeks have seen renewed market swings — a softer US dollar, rotation within equities and shifting rate expectations — as investors reassess valuations, policy risks and the durability of US exceptionalism. Yet a consistent macro thread runs through our charts this week. This week’s themes include: The US risk premium Bank lending growth Producing AI versus Using AI Asia’s industrial product...

This week, Dr. Nela Richardson, ADP Chief Economist and Head of ADP Research, joins Andy Cates on  to recap their recent webinar covering the ADP National Employment Report as well as the recently launched NER pulse. Listen to their conversation as we examine the power of ADP Payroll Data. 

Financial markets have seen renewed gyrations in recent weeks, with a weaker US dollar, higher interest rate volatility and shifting capital flows reviving discussion of a “Sell America” narrative — so far more a marginal rebalancing than a wholesale retreat. In our charts this week we focus on:   Global growth conditions The US dollar Consumer confidence in the US and Europe Financial markets and...

The global backdrop remains unsettled, reflected in rising gold prices amid geopolitical tensions. At the same time, however, many major equity indices remain at or close to all-time highs, buoyed by optimism around AI and reinforced by a run of relatively benign US inflation readings. In our charts this week we focus on: The Blue Chip growth consensus Central bank policy rate expectations UK data...

Over the past few weeks, global financial markets have taken comfort from cooling inflation, resilient earnings and continued upside surprises in the dataflow. More recently, however, geopolitical developments have injected a note of caution, even as the macro backdrop remains broadly supportive. In our charts this week we focus on: Global growth conditions Supply chain pressures and inflation Int...

In this week’s charts, we highlight a cluster of upside risks that may be underappreciated in current economic forecasts. These include: A faster-than-expected pace of policy easing in advanced economies  A further sharp decline in oil prices A positive AI-driven surprise from US productivity  Unexpected resilience from the US economy India's growth momentum firms again The Global South exhibits m...

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy heads into 2026 with a surprisingly resilient backdrop: equities remain near cycle highs, volatility is low, and growth forecasts have been edging up. Against this constructive backdrop, our charts this week focus on some of the key downside risks that concern: The global growth consensus Central bank policy calibration Financial market stability AI exp...

Global financial markets have been navigating a more unsettled backdrop in recent weeks, with choppier risk sentiment and shifting rate expectations reshaping the macro narrative. US assets have been particularly sensitive to signs of cooling labour-market momentum, while rising real yields in Japan and renewed fiscal tightening in the UK have added further cross-currents. In our charts this week...