Macro Pulse

In this podcast, Arun Singh, Dun & Bradstreet's Global Chief Economist, joins Andy Cates from Haver Analytics, to explore D&B’s Global Business Insights Survey — a powerful decision-making lens for leaders who want to act early, think clearly, and navigate uncertainty with confidence.

As 2025 draws to a close, the global economy feels caught between relief and unease. Inflation has eased but not fully retreated, monetary-policy cycles are pulling in different directions, markets are oscillating between AI-driven enthusiasm and valuation nerves, and geopolitical tensions are pressing harder on trade, energy and investment flows.    Against this backdrop, we discuss twelve themes...

The global economic story of 2025 has been one of resilience amid disruption. Despite a succession of shocks — from US trade policies and elevated geopolitical risks— the world economy has held up better than many feared. In our charts this week we review: Global data surprises and market volatility Monetary policy calibration and inflation The stance of fiscal policy AI investment and productivit...

Global equity markets are once again flirting with record highs, buoyed by renewed optimism that the global economy can achieve a soft landing—and by persistent enthusiasm over the potential productivity gains from AI-related investment. In our charts this week we focus on: The Fed and interest rate expectations The global business cycle Consumer confidence in the US and Europe Euro area credit co...

Financial markets have been pulled between opposing forces in recent days. Risk sentiment has been hit by concerns over US lenders, credit conditions, tariffs, the government shutdown, and a potential AI-driven valuation bubble (chart 1). Offsetting this, easing growth and inflation have strengthened expectations of further central bank rate cuts, lifting soft-landing hopes. In our charts this wee...

Global financial markets are entering mid-October with a cautiously optimistic tone, supported by a mix of better macro data and easing geopolitical risk. In our charts this week we drill into:   The global growth consensus US investment in data centres Views on AI and productivity Geopolitical risks and oil prices China's trade patterns The UK labour market 

Financial markets have been navigating a US government shutdown that has frozen key data releases and muddied the macro picture. In the meantime, political cross-currents in Europe and Asia have added to the noise. In our charts this week we drill into: The US labour market Global productivity trends Electricity prices Natural capital versus produced capital Japan's politics Vietnam's economy 

Global financial markets have remained resilient in recent days, supported by a combination of easing inflation concerns, steady growth data, and hopes that geopolitical risks may ease. At the same time, investors are watching the fallout from the US government shutdown, which is likely to suspend or delay the release of key economic indicators, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. In our charts t...

Global financial markets have remained steady over the past few days: equity volatility remains low, credit spreads remain contained and core yields have drifted rather than lurched, even as policy noise—especially around US trade—remains high. In our charts this week we focus on: Global growth momentum European bond markets South Korean trade Global labour market activity UK financial balances Eq...

Global equity markets have remained near record highs over the past few days following the Fed’s 25bp cut on Wednesday, and which investors have arguably seen as a key prop even without a full dovish pivot. Clearly AI optimism is also doing some heavy lifting. In our charts this week we drill into: Equity markets and consumer confidence Inflation expectations and oil prices Forecasts for US profit...

Financial markets have spent the week recalibrating after last Friday’s much weaker-than-expected US payrolls data: government bond yields have declined sharply, while equity markets have remained perky off hopes of a gentler policy path and still-resilient earnings. Even so, the medium-term growth lens has arguably continue to dim. In our charts this week we focus on: The Blue Chip growth consens...

Equity markets have lost a little ground in recent days and bond markets have been more jittery, as legal challenges to US tariff policies add to a tense backdrop of geopolitical meetings between China, Russia, and India. In our charts this week we focus on: Gold prices and trade policy uncertainty US Tariffs India's economy and markets Global monetary policy Euro area inflation The US profit cycl...

Haver Analytics sits down with Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist at The Conference Board of Canada, and Cory Renner, who leads the Board’s forecasting team. Together, they discuss how Canada’s economic outlook is shaped by detailed provincial and metropolitan data, why quarterly accounts matter, and how large-scale models and real-time insights help forecast growth, investment, and labor market trend...

Recent financial market gains have been underpinned by resilient global data, AI-fuelled optimism, and hopes that most central banks will continue to loosen monetary policy. Yet beneath the surface, a more complicated picture may be emerging. In our chart this week we home in on: US housing indicators China's economy UK inflation Oil and inflation expectations Clean energy Renewables versus non-re...

Global financial markets head into late summer buoyed by resilient risk appetite, underpinned by hopes that AI will boost productivity and growth alongside expectations for further central bank policy easing. Yet this optimism has not been fully mirrored in the macro outlook. In our charts this week we focus on: Markets and data surprises The US investment consensus The global growth consensus US...

Following last week's softer-than-expected US labour market report bond yields have fallen sharply as investors repriced the outlook for Fed easing. This recalibration arguably also reflects growing awareness of mounting downside risks across the US and broader global economy. In our charts this week we focus on: Capacity pressures in the US and Europe US housing market weakness US bank lending st...

Financial markets have remained generally buoyant in recent days, with global equity indices advancing on the back of relatively upbeat global growth data, benign European inflation readings and the prospect of further policy easing from major central banks. In our charts this week we focus on: The global policy rate consensus The dollar and data surprises Stagflation risks US port congestion Glob...

Financial markets have been on a geopolitical rollercoaster in recent days. The Iran–Israel flare-up briefly sent oil prices surging and risk assets tumbling, but tensions have since eased and market conditions have stabilised. That calm has refocused attention on underlying fundamentals—and the signals are mixed. In our charts this week we focus on: Global business cycle indicators South Korea's...

Financial markets have been jolted over the past week by a sharp escalation in geopolitical risk. The sudden intensification of hostilities between Israel and Iran—marked by missile strikes and retaliatory air operations—has reignited fears of a broader regional conflict with global consequences. In our charts this week we focus on: Geopolitical risk Oil prices and global growth Global shipping co...

Financial markets have experienced considerable gyrations in recent weeks, reflecting substantial shifts in investor expectations and heightened uncertainty, largely driven by ongoing US tariff policies. Against this backdrop, consensus growth forecasts have seen notable downward revisions across most major economies over the past 6 months. In our charts this week we home in on: The Blue Chip grow...

Recent weeks have seen a complex recalibration in global financial markets, as investors weigh the implications of renewed US tariff actions against accumulating signs of economic softness and growing confidence in the prospect of central bank easing. In our charts this week we home in on: The global policy rate consensus The US labour market and Fed easing expectations Oil prices and inflation su...

Financial markets have entered a more unsettled phase, with long-term yields, until very recently, rising notably across the US, Europe, and Japan. While inflation persistence and increased government borrowing have played a role, the moves also reflect broader concerns about global policy credibility and capital market dynamics. In our charts this week we focus on: The US dollar and Treasuries Sa...

Despite escalating global economic uncertainty—driven in large part by US tariff policies—equity markets have, until recently, continued to surge, seemingly shrugging off risks that would typically provoke caution. This disconnect has grown more conspicuous in the wake of last week’s downgrade by Moody’s of the US sovereign debt outlook, which underscored mounting concerns over fiscal sustainabili...

Financial market sentiment has improved notably in recent days, buoyed by an unexpected pause in the US-China tariff war and the May 12 announcement of significantly reduced bilateral tariff rates. This détente has eased investor fears of a deepening global trade shock and sparked a rebound in risk appetite. Our charts this week focus on: US shipping activity The Blue Chip Growth Consensus The Blu...

Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. In our charts this week we focus on: China-US shipping activity US and Euro area GDP growth Yield differentials and the US dollar Structural growth drivers and the dollar Competitiveness gauges in the US, Europe, Japan and Chin...