Macro Pulse

Falling oil prices offer welcome relief for the global economy. But stubborn inflation and higher borrowing costs threaten an increasingly concentrated expansion. In this week's charts we examine six signals worth watching: → Global momentum is easing, but resilience persists. → Technology is reshaping China's export mix. → Finance and information dominate the US profits recovery. → Oil inventorie...

The global economy continues to show resilience. But beneath the surface, some increasingly uncomfortable divergences are emerging. In this week's charts we examine six signals worth watching: → Interest-rate expectations have risen, but long-term bond-yield forecasts have lagged. → Korean equities have been falling even as growth forecasts improve. → US demand for conventional credit has weakened...

Four central banks decide policy this week, with an awkward message from the data: growth is holding up, but the sources of resilience are narrowing. In this week’s charts: → Factories are doing more of the lifting → Positive growth surprises are still outpacing inflation surprises → Stronger data had been pushing bond yields higher → Household disposable income growth weak or falling → US consump...

The world economy has taken war, political uncertainty and expensive money in its stride. But resilience is not strength. Growth now leans on a narrow investment boom whose financial and physical costs are climbing. In our charts this week:   → A market retreat that punished the year’s winners in proportion → Japanese exports tracking the scale of the chip investment cycle → British wage disinflat...

Markets spent the past week doubting the proposition that has carried them all year. Technology stocks fell, bonds caught a defensive bid — none of it about the macro data, which if anything improved. In our charts this week:   → Blue Chip: growth up almost everywhere, inflation down → US trend growth marked up — back to where it sat a decade ago → US construction: data centres rising, everything...

US equities pushed to fresh highs again this week, the dollar is firmer than it was a month ago and gold sits some way below its late-August peak. Capital is being pulled towards American investment rather than away from risk. In our charts this week: → US hiring has slowed, but so has the bar it must clear → French spreads now wider than Italy's → Political stability has tracked living standards...

Bond markets are pricing a tightening cycle. Equity markets are arguably pricing a productivity boom. Both can't be right for long. This week's Charts of the Week looks at why the current combination is so unusual — and what would end it. → Policy rates expected higher in every major economy → AI hiring spreading well beyond the US → Output accelerating, core inflation still falling → The global c...

The world economy has absorbed six months of disrupted energy supply with far less damage than it could have. The reasons why are arguably narrower than they look. In our charts this week: Delivery times lengthening, freight rates climbing Growth upgrades went almost entirely to the chip exporters Record drawdown in global oil stocks Three commodity shocks, three unrelated causes US labour demand...

Energy and the cost of money set the tone this week. Crude held above $100, the ten-year Treasury yield pushed through 5 per cent, and the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023. But the tightening is not coming from corporate borrowing, and the week's data from Britain, China and Korea point to very different pressures again. In our charts this week:   Futures now price above...

The global economy is tilting back towards reflation: growth is firming while inflation proves stubborn, just as a cluster of central banks prepare to meet. This week in six charts: → Global growth surprises have lately been positive and inflation surprises negative — a supportive mix for equities. → Policy uncertainty has eased, but remains high. → Most major economies now sit on the reflationary...

Central banks set the tone this week. After Warsh's first Jackson Hole address, and with the ECB expected to move again, the monetary tide is turning towards tightening — even as growth slows. The week in six charts: → Forecasters expect higher rates in most major economies → Shipping and supply-chain costs are rising again → Price pressure is re-emerging at the factory gate → US labour demand is...

The real economy has refused to buckle. Through a year of tariffs, conflict and tighter money, global growth has held up — and firmer growth has sat naturally alongside higher yields. Indeed, what stands out is why those yields are climbing: almost entirely the real rate and behind it the deeper question of who is now willing to fund America's debt. This week's six charts:   🔹 Global GDP held nea...

In this week’s podcast, Andy talks with Sharmila Whelan from Westbourne Research. Long-term interest rates are back near two-decade highs. The short end has eased as soft US data pare back Fed tightening bets, but the long end keeps climbing on deeper, structural forces. Many of this week’s charts set out what they are. US data soften, short-end yields ease Japan leans on exports, not domestic dem...

In this episode, Andy Cates is joined by Daniel Jerrett, PhD — founder of SmartMacro Labs and Haver's official training partner — to get past the noise around AI and ask what the technology actually changes for economists and investment teams. They discuss why most teams are stuck in a prompt loop with a ceiling, what separates a chat window from a genuine macro research system (persistence, conte...

The global economy has held up better than a noisy summer might suggest, with tensions in the Middle East, intervention to steady the yen, and nerves over AI spending all unsettling sentiment — yet the data have stayed firm and the pressure on interest rates has been upward, not down. In this week's publication we look at why the world economy is proving so resilient, and at the rising cost — in b...

The Federal Reserve held rates again this week, but the more consequential story is the investment cycle now lifting the real cost of capital — and whether all that spending will pay off. This week's charts trace it from the Fed to the physical constraints that will decide the outcome: Fed holds a fifth time, but on a divided vote Real yields at a two-decade high — driven by growth, not inflation...

Freight markets can offer a timely window into global trade, demand and economic activity—but their signals are often overlooked. Nadia Mirza of the Baltic Exchange joins Haver Analytics Senior Economist Andy Cates to discuss the Baltic’s role in global freight markets, the data and benchmarks it produces, and the new BALTIC database available through Haver Analytics.

Global growth continues to hold up well, but this week's data flag a few fresh risks on the inflation and geopolitical front. In our charts this week: Global equity markets remain resilient Global PMIs point to a solid expansion US growth, not inflation, is keeping bond yields elevated Supply chains eased in June, but this week’s Middle East flare-up threatens that Extreme heat across Europe is a...

Oil prices are lower, the US-Iran memorandum is holding, and this week's euro area flash CPI came in below expectations. The near-term inflation picture is improving. But professional forecasters have barely moved their rate calls.

Oil is lower, Hormuz traffic is recovering, and the geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy markets since March is unwinding. But calmer waters shouldn't be confused with resolved ones. Beneath the surface, some important new currents are running.   In our charts this week:   Equity market momentum and global growth surprises — a shifting picture Oil and US two-year yields have decoupled — th...

The US-Iran MoU has delivered a genuine moment of geopolitical relief — oil lower, yields down, risk assets recovering. But relief is not the same as resolution. Beneath the headlines, the underlying data continue to tell a more complex story.   In our charts this week:   US growth outperformance widens; Europe and China disappoint UK gilt yields, oil prices and the Bank of England's next move Glo...

The global macro backdrop has grown more unsettled. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has pushed back Fed easing expectations, a tech sell-off has rattled sentiment, and Middle East instability continues to keep energy markets on edge. In our latest Charts of the Week we examine:   GDP growth forecasts: broad deterioration, with Taiwan the striking exception Why 2027 inflation forecasts are...

The global macro backdrop continues to evolve in ways that would have surprised many investors at the start of the year. Expectations of widespread monetary easing have steadily receded as inflation has proven more persistent and economic activity more resilient than anticipated. In our charts this week we examine:   The growing bias toward monetary policy tightening Firming US labour demand Suppl...

Markets have remained relatively resilient as oil prices soften on renewed hopes surrounding the US-Iran negotiations. But beneath the surface, the macro backdrop remains fragile. In our charts this week:   • Europe remains vulnerable to higher energy prices • US consumer confidence continues to weaken • Not yet close to the pandemic-era liquidity shock • Broad money growth remains subdued • AI in...

Markets have swung back toward inflation angst as Middle East tensions and higher energy prices push bond yields higher again. But beneath the surface, the macro picture remains increasingly divided:   • US inflation surprises re-emerging • Global bond yields backing up • US labour bargaining power still weak • Oil prices elevated despite fading war fears • Core inflation still relatively benign •...