Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilization, one of the most overlooked leading indicators. With the latest reading at 76.2 percent in May 2026, up slightly from 76.13 percent, they explore why this slow creep matters more than the headline GDP or jobs numbers. They trace the history of capacity utilization as a recession predictor, look at how it behaved before the 2008 and 2020...

The economy is growing, unemployment is low, and stocks are near all-time highs. So why are initial jobless claims rising? In Episode 56 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest claims data — 229,000 for the week of June 6, up from 225,000 the prior week and 212,000 a year ago. They explore the gap between headline GDP and the real economy: layoffs are ticking up in...

Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilisation—the measure of how hard factories and mines are running—and explain why it's flashing a subtle warning even as GDP grows. With the May 2026 reading at 76.2%, up slightly from 76.13%, but still below pre-pandemic averages, the hosts explore what this metric tells us about inflation, business investment, and the real slack in the economy. They connect it...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing divergence between real GDP growth and consumer inflation in mid-2026. With GDP annualizing at just 1.6% while CPI hits 4.2% annually—the highest in three years—the hosts unpack what this split signals for household budgets, Federal Reserve policy, and portfolio strategy. They examine specific data points inc...

GDP is growing at 1.6 percent annualized, but a less-watched number—industrial production—is telling a more interesting story. Lucas and Luna dig into why the factory sector is outperforming services, what capacity utilization at 76.1 percent means for inflation, and how the Iran conflict is reshaping manufacturing supply chains. They connect the dots between the ECB rate hike, the 4.2 percent CPI...

Lucas and Luna dig into an uncomfortable economic paradox: the unemployment rate is flat at 4.3%, monthly payrolls keep rising, yet average hourly earnings adjusted for CPI are actually shrinking. They explore how the 4.2% annual CPI print in May has erased wage gains, leaving workers with less purchasing power than a year ago. Lucas walks through the math of real wages, why hourly earnings data c...

In this episode of Economic Indicators, Lucas and Luna dive into the European Central Bank's first rate hike since 2023, announced on June 11, 2026, amid the Iran conflict-driven energy surge. They explore how this ECB move signals a shift in global inflation dynamics, linking it to the recent 4.2% annual CPI rise in the US and the steepening yield curve. Using the 10-year breakeven rate of 2.31%,...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the 10-year breakeven inflation rate—currently at 2.31 percent—and what it reveals about market expectations for future inflation. They compare it to the latest CPI print of 4.2 percent and the core PCE index, explaining why breakevens matter more than headline numbers for investors. The hosts also discuss how the ECB's rec...

In episode 49 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the puzzling April JOLTS report: job openings jumped by over 700,000 to 7.6 million, yet hiring barely budged. They explore what this growing gap between vacancies and actual hiring tells us about labor market friction, worker reluctance, and whether the economy is really as strong as the headline numbers suggest. With th...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the May 2026 wholesale inflation report that showed a 1.1 percent monthly jump, far above expectations. They explore how surging energy costs, driven by the Iran conflict, are feeding through to producer prices and what this means for future consumer inflation. The hosts connect yesterday's PPI data to the broader economi...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the May 2026 Producer Price Index report—wholesale prices surged 1.1% month-over-month, far above expectations, driven by a spike in energy costs linked to the Iran conflict. They discuss why PPI matters as a leading indicator for consumer inflation, how the 10-year breakeven rate is diverging from PPI, and what this mean...

On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has fallen to 2.29 percent from 2.34 percent in just a few days. They explore what this market-based measure says about investor expectations versus the official CPI reading of 4.2 percent annual inflation. The hosts discuss how breakeven rates reflect real-time sentiment, why the...

Lucas and Luna examine the latest CPI print showing 4.2% annual inflation in May 2026 — the highest in three years — and dig into what's really driving it: an energy-price surge connected to global supply shocks and the ECB's first rate hike since 2023. They break down the gap between headline and core CPI, explain why breakeven inflation rates matter now more than ever, and explore what higher en...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling disconnect: the economy is growing, unemployment is low, yet initial jobless claims have jumped to 225,000 as of late May 2026—up from 212,000 the week before. They explore what's driving the increase, from sector-level layoffs to seasonal adjustment quirks, and what it might signal about the labor market's hea...

Episode 43 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo. Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzling disconnect: GDP is growing, unemployment is low, yet the New York Fed's latest survey shows household financial worries hitting their highest level since July 2022. They unpack why the sentiment data matters more than GDP for the real economy, and what it signals for consumer spending and the Fed's next move. Plus,...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest business inventories data, which hit $2.71 trillion in March 2026. They explain why inventories rising faster than sales is historically a leading recession signal, especially with capacity utilisation stuck at 76.1 percent. Using the recent JOLTS job openings surge and the yield curve steepening as context, th...

GDP is growing at 1.6 percent annualised, the unemployment rate is 4.3 percent, and payrolls keep rising. So why did the New York Fed's latest survey show household financial worries hitting their highest level since July 2022? Lucas and Luna dig into the disconnect between top-line macro data and what families are actually feeling. They look at the gap between nominal GDP growth and real wage gai...

Episode 40 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo digs into the New York Fed's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household worries over finances hitting their highest level since July 2022. Lucas and Luna explain why inflation expectations among consumers now diverge from official CPI data, and why that gap matters for the Fed's next move. They connect the survey to real GDP growth...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows household worries over finances hitting their highest level since July 2022. They explore how this shift in consumer sentiment is beginning to affect spending patterns, savings rates, and even the Federal Reserve's policy path. With the May jobs report d...

The S&P 500 is at 7,384 and the Nasdaq has dropped over five percent in five days, yet real GDP grew at 1.6 percent annualized in Q1 2026 and the unemployment rate is a low 4.3 percent. Lucas and Luna unpick this apparent contradiction by looking at the composition of GDP growth, the surge in job openings to 7.6 million, and what the bond market is pricing in via the ten-year yield at 4.54 percent...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the surprising steepening of the yield curve in mid-2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.54 percent and the two-year at 3.62 percent, the spread has widened past 90 basis points after being inverted for over two years. What does this signal about growth expectations, Fed policy, and the risk of a recession? The h...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into capacity utilisation—an often-overlooked metric that reveals how much industrial slack the economy really has. With the latest reading stuck at 76.1 percent, well below the long-run average of 80 percent, the hosts explain why factories aren't running hot despite decent GDP growth. They connect this to the tepid inflation...

Lucas and Luna dig into the striking data showing the yield curve is steepening—the 10-year Treasury hit 4.54 percent and the 30-year touched 5.00 percent—while short-term rates stay elevated. They explore whether this signals the economy is healing, or if it reflects war-risk premiums and tariff uncertainty. Using the latest CPI, jobs, and GDP data from June 2026, they unpack what the curve's sha...

Episode 34 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo dives into total business inventories—the $2.71 trillion number that often flashes warning before a downturn. Lucas and Luna break down why inventories rose 0.9% in March 2026 even as consumer spending softens, what the inventory-to-sales ratio is signaling, and how this metric differs from GDP or jobs data. They reference the May jobs report preview...

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data showing long-term unemployment is surging in the U.S., even as headline job numbers look solid. With the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3% and initial jobless claims rising to 225,000, they explore the hidden drag on the economy, the Fed's frustration, and why this structural shift matters more than monthly payrolls. They connect the dots to capacity utilizati...