Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a number that keeps catching Lucas's eye: capacity utilisation at 76.1 percent. Even as real GDP growth rebounded to 1.6 percent annualised and job openings surged to 7.6 million, factories are still running well below the 78-to-80 percent range that historically signals pricing power and investment. They trace the histor...

GDP is growing at just 1.6 percent annualized, but industrial production has jumped 0.7 percent in a single month. Lucas and Luna unpack why factories, refineries, and utilities are outperforming the broader economy — and what that means for the Fed, inflation, and your portfolio. They look at capacity utilization hitting 76.1 percent, the inventory rebuild that's driving output, and why this dive...

In episode 30 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the GDP deflator—a measure of economy-wide inflation that often gets overshadowed by CPI and PCE. They explain why the deflator can signal broadening price pressures before they show up in consumer surveys, and how the current gap between real and nominal GDP growth hints at underlying inflation that Fed policy alone may st...

Lucas and Luna dive into the GDP deflator, a broad measure of inflation that the Fed monitors closely but most people overlook. With nominal GDP at $31.8 trillion and real GDP growth at just 1.6%, they explain how the deflator captures price changes across the entire economy, including investment goods and government spending that CPI misses. They contrast it with the PCE price index, showing why...

Lucas and Luna break down the surprise jump in job openings to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years. They explore why this number jumped despite a flat unemployment rate and what it means for the Fed's interest rate path. The conversation connects JOLTS data to wage growth and inflation, using the latest CPI and average hourly earnings figures. Lucas argues that the job marke...

Job openings surged to 7.6 million in April 2026, the highest in nearly two years, complicating the Federal Reserve's path forward. Lucas and Luna dig into the JOLTS data, unpacking why a hot labor market doesn't necessarily mean rate hikes ahead. They connect the dots to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — core PCE at 3.3% — and explore how geopolitical shocks like the Iran war are distorting t...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why producer prices—specifically the producer price index—may be a more accurate leading indicator of Fed policy than the consumer price index. Using fresh data from June 2026, they explain how rising input costs at the factory level are filtering through to core inflation, even as CPI shows a slight cooldown. Lucas tra...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why producer price index (PPI) data may offer a timelier signal of inflationary pressure than the consumer-focused CPI. With core PCE running at 3.3% annually and energy inflation stubbornly persistent due to the Iran conflict, the hosts examine how input costs for manufacturers—such as energy, raw materials, and logistics...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the growing gap between nominal and real GDP growth. As of Q1 2026, nominal GDP hit $31.82 trillion while real GDP (chained 2017 dollars) reached $24.15 trillion. That $7.67 trillion spread reflects nearly four years of cumulative inflation. The hosts explain why nominal GDP captures total spending power in the economy—in...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the gap between nominal and real GDP growth, using the latest data (Q1 2026 nominal GDP at $31.82 trillion, real at $24.15 trillion) to explain why inflation-adjusted figures can paint a deceptive picture. They discuss how nominal growth signals corporate revenue potential, while real growth reveals actual economic expansion. With core PCE inflation stuck at...

On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down how the ongoing Iran war is creating a distortion in core inflation readings. With the Fed's preferred PCE gauge showing core inflation at 3.3% annually, but energy prices adding $450 to the average household's annual costs, they examine whether stripping out energy prices still makes sense when the shock is prolonged....

This episode digs into the JOLTS data released on May 30, 2026, which shows job openings falling to 6.866 million, the lowest since early 2021. Lucas and Luna explore what this decline means for the Fed's rate path—especially with core inflation still running at 3.3 percent and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent. They focus on the puzzle of falling openings without a spike in layoffs, th...

Lucas and Luna dive into the April 2026 inflation and wage data, showing that while average hourly earnings rose to $37.40, core CPI climbed to 335.4 and core PCE hit a 3.3% annual rate. They explain why real wage growth has turned negative for most workers, how the Iran war energy shock is compounding the squeeze, and what this means for consumer spending and Fed policy. A data-driven look at the...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why energy inflation is skewing the way we read core CPI and the Fed's preferred PCE gauge. With the Iran war pushing household energy costs up by nearly $450 annually, the hosts examine how stripping out food and energy might be masking persistent price pressures in other sectors. They explore the gap between core CPI...

Business inventories have surged to $2.7 trillion, adding a volatile twist to GDP growth. Lucas and Luna break down how inventory accumulation boosted first-quarter growth to 1.6 percent annualized, why the build-up may reverse in coming quarters, and what the 76.1 percent capacity utilisation rate tells us about whether companies are producing ahead of demand or sitting on unsold goods. Drawing o...

Lucas and Luna dive into the durable goods orders report, which dropped a surprise 6.2% in April. But they explain why the headline number is misleading—transportation orders can swing wildly. Core capital goods orders, a proxy for business investment, actually rose 0.4%. They connect this to the Fed's dilemma: sticky services inflation versus cooling goods demand. With real GDP growth at 1.6% and...

Lucas and Luna break down the difference between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — and why the Fed prioritises Core PCE. With CPI at 332.4 and Core PCE at 129.3, they explain how each index is constructed, why they diverge, and what that means for the rate path ahead. Plus: a quick look at how breakeven inflation expectations have edged down to 2.39%,...

Lucas and Luna explore why capacity utilisation, currently at 76.1 percent, may be a more reliable leading indicator of economic turning points than GDP itself. They discuss the latest industrial production data, the gap between current utilisation and the long-run average, and what this means for inflation and Fed policy in mid-2026. Drawing on historical patterns, including the 2008 financial cr...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into capacity utilisation — the often-overlooked metric that reveals whether the economy is running hot or has room to grow. With the latest data showing capacity utilisation at 76.1 percent in April 2026, up from 75.67 in March, Lucas explains why this matters more than the headline GDP number. They explore how capacity cons...

Lucas and Luna break down why capacity utilisation — currently at 76.1 percent — is a more reliable forward-looking indicator than GDP or unemployment for gauging inflationary pressure and the next Fed move. Using data from May 2026, they explain how factories running at 76 percent capacity leave room for output without spiking prices, and why a reading above 80 percent has historically preceded r...

Lucas and Luna dig into a quietly powerful economic indicator: inventory investment. With real GDP growth at 2.0 percent and business inventories rising to $2.71 trillion, they explore how warehouse shelves are contributing to output—and whether the current build is a sign of confidence or a prelude to a correction. They reference the latest Q1 2026 data, the industrial production index at 102.5,...

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — historically a screaming recession signal. But with the S&P 500 near 7,500 and unemployment at 4.3 percent, Lucas and Luna dig into why this time may actually be different. They break down the 10-year minus 2-year spread, the role of term premium, and what the curve's recent flattening tells us about Fed policy and the Iran-war inflation backd...

While services inflation and consumer sentiment dominate the headlines, industrial production has posted a solid gain in April. Lucas and Luna unpack the latest data: capacity utilisation ticked above 76 percent for the first time in months, and the industrial production index hit 102.5, up from 101.81. They explore what this divergence means for the Fed's next move, whether manufacturing is decou...

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest GDP data, breaking down why real GDP growth matters more than the headline nominal figure. With nominal GDP at $31.86 trillion but real growth at just 2% annualized, they explore what this means for wages, productivity, and the Fed's next move. They also examine the divergence between the stock market's rally and the consumer sentiment record low, using the S&P 5...

Episode 8 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo: Lucas and Luna dig into the latest JOLTS data from March 2026, which shows job openings fell to 6.866 million, down from 6.922 million. They explore why this decline hasn't triggered a rise in the unemployment rate — which held steady at 4.3 percent — and what the Beveridge Curve tells us about the labor market's new normal. The hosts draw on the Fede...