Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data

The yield curve is steepening — but not for the reasons markets usually expect. In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the divergence between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, what the rising term premium signals about fiscal risk, and why this steepening might be more about supply than growth. With the 10-year yield at 4.57% and the 2-year at 3.69%, t...

In Episode 106 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a quiet but powerful number from the latest economic data: the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has slipped to 2.23 percent. While the CPI and PCE indexes still show sticky price pressures, the breakeven—a market-implied inflation expectation—has been edging down since spring. Lucas explains how the breakeven is calculated...

Lucas and Luna unpack a curious market signal: corporate bond spreads are tightening even as GDP growth moderates and the labor market shows cracks. With the S&P 500 at 7,544 and job creation slowing to just 57,000 in June, bond markets seem to be pricing in a different reality. Lucas dives into the mechanics of credit spreads, the role of the Fed's rate path, and why investors are piling into inv...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why the Fed has shifted its focus from headline CPI to the 10-year breakeven inflation rate as a better gauge of long-run inflation expectations. Using the latest data from July 2026—where breakevens have held steady at 2.25% while CPI ticked up to 334.0—they explain how this metric filters out transitory noise and sign...

On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a key tension in today's macro data: CPI is running at 4.3% annualized over the past three months, but the Fed's preferred gauge — core PCE — is hovering just above 2.5%. They explain the structural differences between the two measures (CPI weights housing more heavily; PCE accounts for substitution effects), and walk thr...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into capacity utilization—a leading indicator that often signals a turning point in the economy months before GDP data confirms it. Using the latest May 2026 data showing utilization at 76.2%, they explain why this number matters, how it connects to business investment and inflation, and what it tells us about the current cyc...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore why the PCE price index, not CPI, is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Using fresh data from July 2026 — including a 131.5 PCE reading and a 2.25 percent breakeven rate — they break down how consumer spending patterns, substitution bias, and service-sector costs shape monetary policy. Lucas explains why the...

In this milestone 100th episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a subtle but crucial shift in how inflation is measured. They explain why the Federal Reserve prefers the PCE price index over the more familiar CPI, and why that difference matters for your portfolio. Using the latest data — CPI at 334.0, Core PCE at 130.1, and the 10-year breakeven at 2.25% — they walk t...

In episode 99 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which just hit 2.24 percent. They explain how this market-based inflation gauge works, why it matters for Fed policy, and what it signals about growth expectations in mid-2026. With the ten-year Treasury yield at 4.52 percent and core CPI still sticky at 336.1, the hosts explore whether...

In Episode 98, Lucas and Luna unpack capacity utilisation—a leading indicator that often signals GDP shifts before the headline number does. With the latest reading at 76.2 percent, just above the pre-pandemic average, they explore why this metric matters for the second half of 2026. Lucas traces the history from the 1970s to the 2008 recession, showing how capacity utilisation peaked before each...

With the S&P 500 near record highs and the unemployment rate dipping to 4.2 percent, you'd expect markets to be calm. But Lucas and Luna dig into a less-watched signal: the corporate bond spread. Investment-grade and high-yield spreads have been widening quietly since May, even as stocks rally. They discuss why bond markets sometimes sniff out trouble before equity markets do, what the spread betw...

This episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo digs into a puzzling disconnect in the mid-2026 labor market: job openings are creeping back above 7.6 million, yet payrolls growth has cratered to just 57,000. Lucas and Luna explore what the JOLTS data is really saying about employer hesitation, structural mismatch, and whether the Fed should be more worried about a cold labor market than hot infl...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into the industrial production index and capacity utilization data released in May 2026. With industrial production rising to 102.6 and capacity utilization ticking up to 76.2%, they explore what these factory-floor metrics signal about broader GDP growth. Lucas explains why capacity utilization still sits well below the 80%...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna take a deep dive into business inventories—the often-overlooked data point that can signal the next turn in GDP growth. With total inventories climbing to $2.73 trillion in April 2026, up from $2.71 trillion in March, the hosts explore whether this accumulation is a sign of confidence or an accidental overstock that could trigger...

Lucas and Luna dig into a quietly powerful economic indicator: business inventories. While most traders obsess over CPI and payrolls, the inventory-to-sales ratio has been rising, and that matters for GDP revisions. Lucas explains why inventories added over a percentage point to Q2 growth—and why that could reverse. They look at the April data showing inventories up to $2.73 trillion, and discuss...

Episode 92 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo examines the labor force participation rate, which has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years outside of Covid. Lucas and Luna dig into the June 2026 jobs report: payrolls grew by just 57,000, and the participation rate dropped to 62.2%. They discuss why workers are leaving the job market—structural shifts like early retirement, caregiving, and discou...

Episode 91 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo: Lucas and Luna dig into the surprising drop in labor force participation—now at its lowest outside of the Covid era. They explore what's behind the decline: aging demographics, discouraged workers, and structural shifts in the job market. Using fresh data from the June 2026 jobs report, including the 57,000 payrolls gain and the 4.2% unemployment rat...

The labor force participation rate just fell to its lowest level outside the Covid era, even as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into why millions of Americans have stopped looking for work entirely, what that means for GDP growth and wage pressure, and how the Fed reads a shrinking labor force differently than a rising jobless rate. They break down the participatio...

Lucas and Luna dig into a startling new data point: the labor force participation rate has fallen to its lowest in 50 years outside of the COVID era. They explore what's driving workers to drop out—demographics, discouraged job seekers, and structural shifts—and why this matters more than the headline unemployment rate. With nonfarm payrolls adding just 57,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rat...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest ADP private payrolls number for June 2026 — 98,000 jobs added, well below the consensus estimate of 130,000. They explore what this miss signals about the broader labor market, especially against a backdrop of steady jobless claims around 215,000 and a 4.3% unemployment rate. The conversation touches on whether...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna drill into the latest ADP private payrolls report for June 2026, which came in well below expectations at just 98,000 new jobs. They contrast this with the still-low initial jobless claims of 215,000 and a steady unemployment rate of 4.3 percent. The conversation explores whether the labor market is genuinely softening or just sen...

Lucas and Luna dig into a frequently overlooked economic indicator: capacity utilization. With the latest reading at 76.2%, they explain why this number matters more now than the headline GDP growth of 2.1%. They trace how capacity utilization has historically turned before recessions, compare current levels to the pre-pandemic peak, and discuss what the gap between industrial production and capac...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the recent steepening of the yield curve and what it signals for economic growth as of July 2026. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.42% and the 2-year at 4.19%, the spread has widened significantly. They explore why this is happening—stronger growth expectations, sticky core inflation at 3.4%, and the Fed's cautious stan...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack the recent steepening of the yield curve and what it signals about the economy's trajectory. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.41% and the 2-year at 3.73%, the spread has widened to 68 basis points—a level not seen in over a year. Is this a bullish signal for growth, or a warning that inflation expectations are rising fa...

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate has edged up to 2.22 percent as of late June 2026, even as core PCE hits 3.4 percent. In this episode, Lucas and Luna unpack the disconnect: why the bond market's implied inflation expectation remains below the Fed's target despite stubbornly high core readings. They examine what breakevens actually measure — the difference between nominal and inflation-protect...