Economic Indicators with Fexingo: GDP, CPI, PMI, and Reading the Macro Data

In this episode, Lucas and Luna explore the recent steepening of the yield curve and what it signals for the economy as of late June 2026. With the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.37% and the gap between 10-year and 2-year yields widening to 69 basis points, they unpack what this inversion-unto-steepening pattern historically means for GDP growth, Fed policy, and inflation. They reference the latest c...

With initial jobless claims dropping to 215,000 in late June 2026, Lucas and Luna analyze what this key weekly indicator really says about the health of the labor market. They contrast the low claims with rising unemployment insurance rolls and a 4.3 percent unemployment rate, exploring the concept of 'labor market rotation' where workers are still finding jobs but with longer gaps between them. T...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into a puzzle: the latest CPI print shows headline inflation at 334.0, up 0.5 percent month over month, while the 10-year breakeven inflation rate has actually ticked down to 2.20 percent. They explore what bond investors see that the CPI basket might be missing — from shelter cost lags to the disinflationary weight of global...

The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, hit 3.4% in May 2026 — the highest since October 2023. Lucas and Luna dig into why this number matters more than CPI, how it contradicts other inflation signals like the 10-year breakeven rate (now at 2.20%), and what it means for the interest rate outlook. They discuss the components driving the rise — particularly services inflation — and whether th...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing divergence between the PCE price index and CPI. With core PCE hitting 3.4% in May 2026 — the highest since October 2023 — they explore why the Fed’s preferred gauge is running hotter than CPI, what components are driving the gap, and what it means for monetary policy. They break down the role of healthcare co...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the growing gap between the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index—and what that divergence signals about corporate margins, inflation pass-through, and the Federal Reserve's next move. With core PCE hitting 3.4% in May 2026—the highest since October 2023—they unpack whether producers are absorbing costs or passing them along, and why the PPI-CP...

Lucas and Luna drill into the widening gap between the PCE and CPI inflation measures. On June 25, 2026, core PCE hit 3.4 percent—its highest since October 2023—while CPI is running cooler. They explain why the divergence matters for Fed policy, bond markets, and your portfolio, and walk through how consumers and businesses are experiencing inflation differently depending on which index you use. A...

Lucas and Luna dive into the latest capacity utilization data — 76.2% in May 2026, up slightly from 76.13% — and explain why this often-overlooked metric is sending a nuanced signal about the economy. They contrast it with industrial production growth, rising job openings, and sticky core inflation to show how capacity constraints might be building beneath a seemingly steady expansion. With factor...

On this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna examine a puzzling divergence: core inflation hit 3.4% in May 2026, its highest since October 2023, yet long-term bond yields have fallen. The hosts walk through the bond math, explaining why the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 13 basis points this week despite hot inflation data. They connect the dots to the 10-year breakeven infl...

Lucas and Luna unpack the surprising JOLTS data from April 2026: job openings jumped to 7.6 million from 6.9 million, a 10.6 percent increase in one month. They explore what this surge means for the broader economic picture, including whether it signals genuine labor demand or noise from sectoral shifts. With layoffs still elevated in manufacturing and the unemployment rate holding at 4.3 percent,...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which has dropped to 2.21 percent as of June 23, 2026. They explain what breakeven inflation actually measures — the difference between nominal and inflation-protected Treasury yields — and why the recent decline matters for the Fed, bond markets, and your portfolio. They compare the...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into the striking disconnect between strong headline GDP growth and a surge in factory job cuts that, according to S&P, approached levels not seen since the financial crisis and the pandemic. With the unemployment rate flat at 4.3% and JOLTS job openings rising to 7.6 million, why are manufacturing layoffs spiking? The hosts...

Factory job cuts in June 2026 are nearing levels not seen since the financial crisis and the Covid pandemic, according to S&P. Lucas and Luna dig into why manufacturing is struggling even as the broader economy grows at a 1.6 percent annualized rate. They examine the divergence between industrial production, which is still rising modestly, and capacity utilization at 76.2 percent, which is below p...

Lucas and Luna unpack the puzzling divergence between rising job openings and steady unemployment in mid-2026. With JOLTS data showing a surge to 7.6 million openings but the unemployment rate stuck at 4.3 percent, they drill into what's really happening beneath the surface. Drawing on the latest figures from May 2026 and anecdotes from states like Nevada, they explore how the labor market is reba...

Lucas and Luna dig into the latest business inventories data, which climbed to $2.73 trillion in April 2026. They explain why inventory build-ups can signal both economic strength and impending correction, using the recent GDP-inventory divergence as a case study. With real GDP growth at just 1.6 percent annualized, the hosts discuss whether companies are overstocking or preparing for sustained de...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dig into the latest average hourly earnings data and what it really means for workers and the broader economy. With private-sector earnings at $37.50 an hour in May 2026, they explore why wage growth hasn't kept pace with inflation, how the gap affects consumer spending, and what it signals for future Fed policy. They also tie in...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into why the Federal Reserve focuses on the core PCE price index over the more widely reported CPI. They explain the methodological differences, discuss the latest data showing core PCE at 129.6 (up from 129.32), and explore what that means for the interest rate outlook in mid-2026. The conversation also touches on how the Fed's preferred metric gives a clearer...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the latest business inventories data and what it tells us about the direction of GDP. With total business inventories rising to $2.73 trillion in April 2026, they explore how inventory accumulation has been a key driver of recent GDP growth, even as consumer spending shows signs of slowing. They discuss the implications for the broader economy, including p...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down why the PCE price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — is diverging from CPI in 2026. With PCE at 130.9 and core PCE at 129.6 in April, the hosts explain how the composition and weighting differences create a more nuanced inflation picture. They also discuss what the 10-year breakeven rate's drop to 2.25 percen...

In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into a fresh angle on economic indicators: the role of business inventories in shaping GDP growth. With new data showing total business inventories reaching $2.73 trillion as of April 2026, and real GDP growth slowing to 1.6 percent, the hosts explore how inventory builds and draws can mask underlying economic momentum. They discuss why business inventories are...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna unpack a subtle but powerful signal in today's macro data: the widening gap between nominal GDP growth and the CPI. Nominal GDP is running at about 5.0% annualized in early 2026, while CPI inflation has moderated to around 2.5%. That spread — roughly 2.5 percentage points — represents real economic growth, but the composition matt...

In this June 2026 episode, Lucas and Luna unpack why the Treasury yield curve is steepening even as the Fed holds rates steady. With the 2-year at 3.66%, the 10-year at 4.45%, and the 30-year at 4.90%, the spread between short and long-term bonds is the widest in years. They explore what this signals about growth expectations, inflation, and the new Fed chair's first meeting. Plus, a look at how t...

In episode 60 of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna dive into a key but often overlooked data point: total business inventories. With inventories hitting over $2.7 trillion in April 2026, they explain how stockpiling signals business confidence and future GDP revisions. Drawing on the latest data, Lucas shows how the inventory-to-sales ratio has crept up from pre-pandemic levels, hin...

Lucas and Luna dive into the latest JOLTS data from April 2026, which showed a surprising jump in job openings to 7.6 million—even as hiring remained flat and the unemployment rate stayed at 4.3 percent. They explore what this divergence means for the Fed, wage growth, and whether the labor market is tightening or loosening. Lucas explains why the ratio of openings to unemployed workers matters mo...

In this episode of Economic Indicators with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna explore a growing divergence in the macro data: capacity utilization is ticking higher while consumer spending shows signs of strain. With industrial production rising but jobless claims creeping up, they ask whether this is a signal of resilience or a warning of a slowdown. They dive into the latest capacity utilization reading o...