Daybreak with Anton

Cash savings balances are near all-time highs. When overall trading is thin (like in August when many investors are on vacation), the market is prone to stall. After Labor Day, school will be in full swing, and most market players will be back at their desks. Will you be ready when investors are back in the driver's seat and cash balances start to roll back into the stock market?   Call us if you...

Institutional investors' biggest fears for the past two years are the impact of rising interest rates due to the Federal Reserve rate hike campaign.   Now that a recession appears to be a low probability, investors new fear is if the Fed's will resume more rate hikes if inflation appears to be heating up.   Wage growth will be a major factor to rising inflation going into 2024 and investors will b...

The stock market has taken a pause since peaking its year high on July 31.   Is this the beginning of a more protracted correction or a new buying opportunity?   In this Brief we unpack what's we believe investors are doing and a strategy for your portfolio.

Yesterday the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) release their report on the sentiment of small business owners. Although the index is still well below prior year highs, the trend has been positive for the last several months and recovering from lows reached earlier this year.   Read in this issue our observation of this report and what it may indicate for the stock market.

Thinking about Christmas may be a bit early for you, but not for retailers.   Executives of all businesses that depend on consumer spending are deep in preparation for this holiday season.   These executives are evaluating the prospects of consumer spending based on their financial assessment of households.   Financially stable consumers spend more and especially when consumers feel "wealthy" base...

President Biden signed the SECURE 2.0 on December 29, 2022 that has improved in many ways the ability to save for retirement.   However,   it is important to monitor tax laws as it concerns your retirement account.   The 401(k) retirement plan is not disappearing yet, but the potential of double taxation or worse on retirement distributions can impact your overall returns. Read in this Weekly Brie...

The Federal Reserve has recently announced its 10th rate hike in an effort to curb inflation, leading analysts to predict a potential recession in 2023. It's important to remember that recessions are a normal part of economic fluctuations, with the US having experienced 13 since World War II. Attempting to time recessions or markets is impossible, and making significant portfolio moves can be chal...

In 2014 my wife gave me a gift certificate for an introductory flight.   That 45-minute flight sparked a lifelong interest in flying that resulted in obtaining my pilot's license and aviation experiences I had never thought possible. In this personal reflection on pursuing my aviation goals, are many life lessons that will hopefully encourage you to take the first steps in pursuit of your lifelong...

Are the fears and worries in 2022 of a recession in 2023 coming to fruition?   In this Weekly Brief we review the challenges the Federal Reserve faced in 2020 and 2021 and why they needed to raise rates as rapidly as possible in 2022.   The concern among many analysts and commentators were the rate increases would stifle economic growth and spiral the economy into a recession.   Read in this Week...

Yesterday's National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) survey on small businesses indicated many key aspects about the health of small businesses. As expected, hiring qualified employees and supply chain disruptions are still a factor for businesses. However, there are several positive indicators about small businesses that represent 99.9% of all businesses in America and have created 66...

Recent economic reports on labor and manufacturing are indicating a slowing but growing economy. In this Weekly Brief we review several reports that together paint a picture of a soft landing of a sustainable and growing economy albeit at a slower pace. The scenario that Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, had hoped would be the case vs the doom and gloom crash landing many analysts predicted...

Inventories are dropping for manufacturing and trade companies while rising for retail businesses.   A mixed bag of information that may indicate that businesses are still growing while consumers are pinching pockets on their spending.   Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of these reports and the status of the US stock market.

Consumer sentiment drops, but will it affect spending? Find out why tracking spending habits is a better predictor of the economy than consumer sentiment. Plus, a look at how stimulus dollars and wage increases have impacted household income in 2020 and 2021.

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank may not be a systemic issue prevalent in the banking sector. However, there are challenges in the credit and lending industry due to the rapid rise of interest rates in 2022 and into 2023. Read in this article an in-depth analysis of the missteps of Silicon Valley Bank that lead to its ultimate demise and what we can learn from this situation.

Yesterday's Factory Orders indicated that consumer spending remains in positive up trend and a good start of the year. The US economy remains in a positive trend and more favorable in contrast to Germany's Factory Report also released yesterday.

The doomsayers predicting a recession in late 2022 or in 2023 so far are thankfully incorrect.   The US GDP gained momentum in the second half of 2022 and recovered all the declines of the first half to end the year with positive overall gain.   Read in this Weekly Brief more evidence we referenced why recession fears may have been overstated and what we see as a likely forecast for 2023.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their monthly housing sales report this morning.   The bad news is the report indicated a 12 th consecutive monthly decline in home sales with the good news the decline may be slowing.   In fact, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun was quoted as saying that he forecast the potential bottoming of home sales with the potential to see increase activity...

Analysts have been forecasting a hard landing for the economy in 2023 due to many concerns that include the aggressive rate hike policy by the Federal Reserve. As it turned out, the Federal Reserve's assessment of the economy has proven to be more accurate than analyst's projections. In this Brief we review the possibilities of either a soft landing or no landing at all.

Spring and summer always follow winter. No matter how cold or deep the snow, spring is only a few months away. If history is a guide to the future of the US economy, this period of world pandemic, supply chain disruptions, hyperinflation, and war, will also fade away and lead into the next US bull market and economic growth trend. Read in this Weekly Brief or listen to our podcast as we review key...

The advantage of being at the bottom of market cycles is the potential for significant gains during the recovery can be terrific. In this issue we outline several stocks bouncing back big time – 30% to 40% - so far this year. Is this the beginning of a new uptrend or a "dead cat bounce" when stocks experience a short term rally only to reverse to new lows?

The Federal Reserve started a rate hike policy on March 17, 2022, that continued throughout the year, targeting to lower inflation based on several indicators. Investors are concerned that higher interest rates will drive the US economy into a recession. Retail sales have declined in the past two months, which suggests that the advance estimate for third-quarter GDP will be lower than previously t...

Another year over and a new year starting.  If there is any time to get ahead of your schedule and plan and take proactive steps towards your goals, it is now.  In this Brief, we discuss some real-life lessons learned on the SEC Football field that turned the tables on Alabama's Nick Saban.

Jerome Powell, head of the Federal Reserve, wants to reduce inflation by raising interest rates. This is important to investors and affects industries like housing and energy. The Fed slowed its rate hike plan, recognizing the impact on inflation. A professor suggests that inflation may already be at the target rate.

With a new year is new hope for an improving stock market.  In this Weekly Brief we review many of the anomalies that impacted almost all sectors of the economy that created unusual price swings.  Most investors forget that the pandemic and subsequent government restrictions on society occurred during a strong economy that appears to still be in tack three years later.  Most certainly, the US econ...

DFTF or "Don't Fight the Feds" has been the theme for investors this year.  The steady decline of the stock market has been matched by the aggressive rate hike policy of the Federal Reserve.  However, investors are slowly renewing their hope that on December 14 Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chairman, will give the message investors have been waiting all year for.  In this Weekly Brief we decipher...