Daybreak with Anton

The media and analysts are back to the good news is bad news routine.   Meaning that when economic news is positive then the potential of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates declines.   Read in this Weekly Brief our review of several key benchmarks on the economy and the prospects the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates soon.

One economic indicator we monitor is the US Purchasers Manufacturing Index (PMI).   This index is based on monthly questionnaire surveys of selected companies that offer an advance indication on month-to-month activity in the private sector economy.   This index tracks changes in variables such as production, new orders, stock levels, employment, and prices across manufacturing industries. Histori...

The start of new construction housing increased 10.7% to 1.521 million units month-over-month to an annualized rate in February after falling 12.3% in January.   The February increase was well above the consensus of 1.449 million units in the Econoday's survey of forecasters.   Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the improving housing market and whether it is a precursor to the future of the...

Although many companies are experiencing record sales with the stocks hitting all-time highs, the small business sector seems to be missing the party all together. For several years we have been writing about the lagging S&P 600 Small Cap Index to its peers of the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and S&P 400 Mid Cap Indices.   Today we review the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) release yesterda...

A January 2024 Gallup Poll indicated that Americans mentioning the economy as a key issue has risen almost three-fold since 2019.   In the category of Economic Problems, 76.7% was attributed to "Economy in General" and "High Cost of Living/Inflation".   In this Weekly Brief we review events of the 1960's that led to historic hyperinflation of the 1970's and what we can learn from this era.   Most...

Today the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was released for February 2024.   We need to monitor this economic indicator on consumers and their views of the economy as it provides us potential insight to the future of consumer spending which represents 66% of the nation's financial activity as referenced by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).   Listen in this Weekly Brief what this mea...

This week's podcast dives into the disconnect between media-driven recession fears and the actual economic growth seen despite the Federal Reserve's rate hikes. Contrary to dire predictions, the economy expanded, with significant stock market rallies and low unemployment rates defying expectations. We'll discuss the repercussions of basing investment strategies on speculative media narratives and...

This year there are more people turning 65-year-old in America than in any other time in history.  Baby Boomers, those born between 1946 and 1964, are now between the ages of 60 and 78 and they are turning the age of 65 at a rate of 11,300 per day. Listen in this Weekly Brief what this means for the American society and economy?

In last week's episode, we dove deep into the seismic news that shook Wall Street to its core – the latest January US Bureau of Labor Statistics job report. With analysts initially predicting a modest increase of 180,000 new jobs, the actual figures left us astounded as the economy surged with an additional 353,000 positions. This significant uptick isn't just a number; it's a beacon of bustling a...

Explore the 'Santa Claus Predictor' in our latest podcast episode. Learn how the S&P 500's performance during key December and January dates can signal its yearly direction. With mixed signals for 2024, we also delve into the robust end-of-year market rally in 2023 and discuss the promising economic outlook for the year ahead. Tune in for a concise and insightful analysis of market trends and pred...

The American consumer sentiment, heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2022, has been recovering since hitting a low in July 2022, reaching a two-year high in January. Despite ongoing concerns like international conflicts and inflation, household financial conditions are strong, with low unemployment and favorable mortgage rates. This improvement in...

In 2023, the stock market, led by major tech companies, saw significant gains with the S&P 500 up by 26%, while the fixed income market experienced unexpected fluctuations in interest rates. Looking ahead to 2024, the stock market is considered more expensive, with expectations of continued growth and margin expansion, especially in tech sectors influenced by AI, while the fixed income market face...

Our expectations of a stock market yearend rally were modest due to waning retail sales and consumer confidence reported in October.   As it turned out, the yearend rally exceeded our and most expectations as institutional investors added stocks to their portfolios that rallied the S&P 500 by 17% and NASDAQ by 23% since the October 27 bottom.   Read in this Weekly Brief our analysis of the year an...

Yesterday was Christmas and already it seems like it was yesterday.   We are fortunate to have seven of our ten grandkids living close to us.   As a result, we had a full house with all day activities with kids and adults that concluded with an amazing Christmas dinner with my wife as head chef.     Read more about our day in this Weekly Brief.   We are hopeful that you had a wonderful Christmas d...

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today the slow continual decline in job openings that remains at historic high levels. Meanwhile, unemployment remains at multi-decade low levels. How can businesses have record job openings while those collecting unemployment are at record low levels? Where are the workers and how are they paying their bills? Finally, what does this mean for the US economy...

With Thanksgiving quickly approaching (along with friends and families), we take a look at how inflation is impacting the country and especially the cost of Thanksgiving dinner.   Listen in this Weekly Brief our review of several economic indicators to determine if the economy is slowing or growing as we enter the last four weeks of the year.   Let us know how we can assist you with your financial...

Explore the market's triumphant week with our latest financial briefing. Discover how small and mid-cap indices like the SP600 and SP400 outshone their larger counterparts, signaling a strategic shift as investors hunt for value in underperformers. Unpack the surprising three-year lag of the tech-heavy NASDAQ and its historical cycle of dominance and downturns. Dive into the charts illustrating NA...

The stock market is always moving as investors adjust their portfolios to their perspective of the economy and their stock holdings.   The result is the actual value of stocks are rarely held as prices fluctuate above and below the actual value.   The key to building wealth is achieving sustainable and consistent yearly gains of your accounts.   In this Weekly Brief, we review the wild ride of the...

Is good news really bad news for investors?   The media would like you to think so.   Today, the US Census Bureau released their report indicating that consumer spending increased month over month higher than projected.   The media interprets this as bad news as it raises the risk the Federal Reserve may increase interest rates.   Read in this Weekly Brief how we interpret this data and whether go...

The small and mid-cap indices continue to trail their large cap and NASDAQ peers.   Is it time to consider investing in these trailing sectors or wait for more confirmation of a positive trend?   Speaking of positive trend, the SP 500 has bounced off of a low on October 2 and has rallied above its 20, 50, and 200 Day Moving Averages.   Is this the uptrend we have been waiting for?   Read in this W...

In this Weekly Brief we review many of the scams our clients have experienced in hopes of preventing you from getting scammed.   Scammers are getting extremely sophisticated as they can duplicate major banking emails and even show up on your caller ID when they call.   AI is introducing all new ways to duplicate voices and write emails.   Be aware anytime you get a call from a financial institutio...

The S&P 500 has declined 8% since it peaked on July 31 the year high and now at its 200 Day Moving Average.   Is this a time to sell or buy and what will the institutional investors that represent the majority of stock market trading, be doing?   Read in this Weekly Brief our views and what strategies one must consider to consistently build wealth.

Consumer sentiment has declined for the third consecutive month. Is this a precursor to another mild holiday season? In this Weekly Brief we review the recent University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report along with other reports to determine the trend of the economy and stock market.

Anton shares in this Weekly Brief his experience of a near death plane crash one year ago and the emotional recovery process since the crash.  Not everyone will be involved in a near death accident, but recovering from personal challenges are similar with perseverance to work through the situation and emotions that come with the experience.

Consumer spending is the economic engine for the US economy and they appear to be in good shape.   The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that consumer spending has increased 0.8% year over year in July and above expectation of 0.7%.   Consumer spending represents 66% of the US GDP and the future of the economy is dependent on consumers continuing to spend even with higher interest rates.   List...