Daybreak with Anton

September retail sales increased 0.4% from August and the third consecutive month over month (MoM) it has increased.   The 0.4% is substantially higher than August's 0.1% monthly increase.   Even though retail sales have increased six of the past nine months this year, overall total retail sales are still less than previous years.    Listen in this issue our views on this report and the prospects...

Prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus in 2020, we used to host multiple client and friend dinner events each year.   Read in this issue about our dinner event this past September 27 with long time client and friend, retired Lieutenant Colonel Tom Dwelle, as our keynote speaker at the Dwelle's impressive hangar at Auburn Municipal Airport.   It was an amazing evening with historic multi-million-...

Today we have received a trove of economic reports that indicate that companies are still hiring and growing while it appears the economy is in a mild slow down cycle.   This seems contradictory and begs the questions: Ø   Why is the economy slowing (less consumer spending) while more people are working in the history of this country?   Ø   Why are there so many job openings yet the unemployment r...

The very low volume of existing home sales reported last week by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) would indicate the continued impact of current decades high mortgage interest rates.   The NAR reported only 3.86K houses sold in August compared to 6.6K in January 2021 and well below the average of 5.5K monthly sales from 2015 to 2020.   Listen in this Weekly UPdate our assessment of this...

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism US Index today indicating it has decreased to 91.2 in August.   This breaks the improving trend since dropping to a multi-year low in March. interested in a loan. NFIB Optimism index has remained below its 50-year average for the past 32 consecutive months.   Read in this Weekly Update our assessment of thi...

After a long Labor Day weekend, investors started the first trading day of September by selling.   The reason floated out by the main media for the selloff is investors skittish about the S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Manufacturing Index (PMI) report released this morning.   Apparently, investors were rattled hearing the same information from last week's Federal Reserve of Phila...

As we forecast in June, the US stock market to enter a period of weakness with stock prices declining during the summer after the major indices had a solid rally in the first half of 2024.   The reasons for summer weakness vary from one year to the next, but the consistent pattern is unmistakable.   This summer, the rationale given why investors were reducing stock allocations included disappointm...

Explore the paradox of low consumer confidence amid a booming stock market in our latest analysis. Discover how media narratives might be leading investors astray while missing out on historic gains.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses released today their Small Business Optimism report.   In the report, they track the results of their monthly survey to its members to produce their proprietary Small Business Index (SBI).   Based on answers provided in July, the SBI rose 2.2 points to 93.7, the highest reading since February 2022.   However, July's index at 93.7 is the 31 st conse...

Yesterday the world markets sold off as investors stampeded out of the market selling their client's portfolios as fast as they could.   What spooked the markets yesterday is not much different than what normally triggers a stampede.   A jittery herd and then a sudden noise.    Read in this Issue as we separate the facts from fiction of what the media is reporting and whether the stampede was legi...

A summer market correction is well under way after a strong first half of 2024 for the stock market.   Over time the S&P 500 on average increases about 70% of time with the remaining periods with down cycles referenced as three steps forward one step back.   A consistent factor with investors and the stock market are the down cycles that are necessary to set up the next positive trend.   Listen in...

In today's market, interest rate trends, the recent S&P500 pullback, and presidential campaigns are key topics, influencing inflation, market volatility, and political dynamics

  The holy grail for companies is achieving maximum productivity growth at the most profitable revenue ratio. For publicly traded companies, investors wait to hear each quarter are the changes in the company's top line revenue (gross sales) and bottom line EBIDTA (earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes, amortization).    The challenge for companies is increasing top revenue efficiently so t...

Since the stock market bottom on October 14, 2022, the major indices have rallied significantly.   During these past 20 months, the tech-based NASDAQ index has soared 78.3% followed by large cap S&P 500 index up 55.53%.   The mid-cap S&P 400 index and small Cap S&P 600 trailed, rising 29.42% and 18.22% respectively.   Is this a time to sell or buy more?   Listen in this issue our analysis of ident...

We added Nvidia (NVDA) to our Growth & Income and Growth model portfolios early last year.   Since then, the stock price has soared.   This year institutional investors continued to add NVDA to their portfolios on bullish forecasts the company's chip and GPU (graphic processor units) will increase in demand.   The stock is up 154.9% YTD through today.   Listen in this Weekly Update our view on the...

The US Census Bureau released last week the advance projection May report of the Index of Economic Activity (IDEA) that includes information how consumers changed their spending last month.   Consumers are changing their spending in what economists refer to as a "soft landing" from former periods of stronger retails sales.   Quick reversals from strong retail sales to no sales blindsides investors...

In this podcast we identify that consumers are changing how they spend their money.   It appears people are buying less fun stuff like vacations and home improvements and focusing more on boring stuff like food and clothes. Do consumers know something analysts don't and are starting to adjust their budgets in preparation for a slowing economy?   Listen in this Weekly Brief our observations of cons...

The most recent economic tsunami was the 2020 pandemic that significantly disrupted all business and specifically manufacturing.   Manufacturers were initially required to shut down operations and send their employees home.   The obvious supply chain dysfunction that followed disrupted all businesses depending on manufactured products.   Read in this Weekly Brief our observations of this week's US...

Last week the Institute for Social Research (ISR) of the University of Michigan released their monthly report on consumer sentiment.   For the May report, the mid-month results indicate a preliminary consumer sentiment index of 67.4 that was revised up to 69.1 for the final May reading.   May is below the April's final reading of 77.2.   Listen in this issue our analysis of this report and the pot...

The Federal Reserve raised the discount interest rate 11 times since March 2022.   The last rate increase was in July 2023 as the CPI trended down from its peak and currently the CPI annualized rate for April was reported last week at 3.4% by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.   How will investors respond with their investment activity as we approach this year's controversial Presidential election?  ...

Today the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released their April report of the small business optimism index.   The index ticked up to 89.7 from 88.5 reading in March which was ahead of general Econoday forecaster consensus.   Small business owners have struggled significantly since the coronavirus outbreak that has been reflected by the dramatic drop in the optimism index.   The...

Why do some investors build wealth consistently over time while many have little to show in growth after years of investing?   In this Weekly Brief, we dive into the various practices and policies of investment advisors and why the guidance of some will result in years of underperformance of their client accounts.

Yesterday the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its monthly report on consumer income and spending.   The report indicated that personal income rose 0.05% and has increased each month now for 24 consecutive months which is good news for households and the economy.   In this Weekly Brief we review this report and how it may impact the stock market and investors.

The US Census Bureau reported today that March housing starts plummeted 14.7% month over month (MoM) to 1.321 million.   This reverses February MoM gain with March's new starts the lowest since August 2023 and biggest decline since April 2020.   What does this mean for the housing market and will it impact the stock market.   Listen in this issue our view on this report and the potential impact on...

Therefore, to understand the financial health of the US we need to look no further than to monitor the financial health of households and consumers.   To simplify the US economic equation is simply: People working   =   people spending   =   economic activity In this issue we review today's Retail Sales report and evaluate the financial health of consumers and the probability of continued expansio...