Daybreak with Anton

Most major U.S. market indices have staged an impressive rebound since establishing their lows on March 30, 2026.  The S&P 500 has now moved back into a technically solid bullish trend, with its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages all turning higher.  This is an important indication that both short-term momentum and longer-term market direction have shifted back in favor of the bulls. Lead...

Throughout my career, I've often heard people argue that the stock market is rigged, corrupt, or tilted in favor of wealthy, well-connected investors.  Many believe the average individual has little chance of success. Like most generalizations these comments stray wide of reality.  Having spent nearly 40 years investing in the stock market, I've learned not to get worked up too much by these views...

U.S. equities rallied strongly from 2022 to early 2026, led by large caps, before Iran conflict fears triggered declines and unusual drops in precious metals. Markets turned volatile, with leadership shifting to smaller caps. The focus remains on risk management, timely reentry, and monitoring oil, rates, inflation, and geopolitical developments. Listen in this UPdate our portfolio management stra...

Before the war with Iran, both investors and consumers were already facing significant uncertainty about the outlook for their finances and the broader U.S. economy. Investors were focused on several key issues, including the future path of Federal Reserve interest rates, the appointment of a new Federal Reserve Chair, rising inflation, and the potential effects of tariffs. Consumers, meanwhile, h...

On June 12–13 of last year, Israel carried out large-scale airstrikes against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, military bases, and senior commanders and scientists. Dozens of sites were neutralized, and several top Iranian military leaders were killed. Despite the escalation, U.S. institutional investors showed little concern and continued deploying billions into equities, private equity, and v...

As a lifelong investor and portfolio manager for the past 28 years, I can confidently say the stock market has bipolar disorder. In reality, it is the large cast of participants that include media commentators, analysts, institutional investors, and everyday individuals who drive the market's unpredictable day-to-day movements.   Read in this UPdate our analysis of the stock market, the impact of...

Over the past three days, we've received reports on the state of consumer sentiment and small business confidence. The results show that both groups are slowly becoming more optimistic about the future, though improvement remains modest. Read in this UPdate, our review of several reports concerning consumer and small business sentiment and our views for the stock market.

Several years ago, Simon Maierhofer, editor, and founder of iSpy ETF Newsletter, introduced me to a combination of three barometers that have had interesting results in predicting the future S&P 500 performance of the new year.   These three barometers are monitoring the performance of the S&P 500 during specific days of the prior year December Christmas and the new year.   These three periods mak...

Last year, we began adding gold and silver mining companies Up Capital Model portfolios. Let me first give credit to client, Annie Alexander, who first introduced the idea of miner stocks early in 2025 as a developing favorable asset class. We ultimately decided to add gold and silver miners to Up Capital Model portfolios in the second quarter of 2025.   Listen to this UPdate our analysis of the p...

The year has now begun with a jolt of geopolitical disruption from Washington. Over the weekend, following months of negotiations with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, President Trump authorized a dramatic 2:00 a.m. local-time operation by elite U.S. Delta Force units. The mission captured President Maduro and his wife and transported them to the United States, where they now await trial. Read...

The predictability of investor behavior can feel almost tedious to anyone who closely follows market activity. Major U.S. indices are wrapping up a third consecutive calendar year of double-digit annual gains, with the S&P 500 up 76.52% and the NASDAQ soaring 119.4% since January 1, 2022. Hopefully, relentless negative messaging from the major media outlets did not keep you on the sidelines and pr...

As an investment advisor, I've had the privilege of working with clients across the full wealth spectrum from the ultra-affluent to those of more modest means. After more than 35 years in this profession, one truth has become unmistakably clear: wealth has its limits. In this UPdate, you'll read examples of clients who not only achieved financial success but also made intentional sacrifices to uph...

Last weekend, our friends and clients, Justin and Kelli Blackburn, invited us to attend the formal annual dinner benefiting St Jude Children's Research Hospital.  Justin and Kelli are the founders of Trinity Constructors, a leading commercial construction company with offices in Texas, Tennessee, and Colorado.  Listen to this UPdate our experience attending this dinner event and the impact this or...

Today marks the release of the 2nd Edition of Physicians' Guide to Wealth on Amazon.    And despite its title, this book is not just for doctors. It's for anyone who wants to build wealth, understand financial markets, and achieve financial independence.   In this UPdate, we outline key topics in this book that includes an overview of Anton's research on repeating and unbroken economic cycles of g...

Engineers have a remarkable talent for inventing solutions to problems most people didn't even know existed. Consider the humble public restroom. For decades, we managed perfectly well with the trusty twisty-knob faucet—left for hot, right for cold. Simple. Functional. Civilized. Now, in this UPdate, we take a look at businesses pouring millions—and in some cases, billions—into AI, often with no c...

If you missed the market rotation mid last year to gold and precious metal miners, you may be asking if it's too late to jump on?   We started adding gold and silver miners in the first quarter of this year.   Gold has become another key asset for our portfolios to diversify our very profitable positions in AI and technology. Listen to  this UPdate our analysis of the AI boom and the precious meta...

Investors are enjoying a robust stock market rally with NASDAQ and possibly the S&P 500 completing three consecutive years of 20%+ annual gains.  Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway has amassed a record-breaking cash reserve, reaching an all-time high of $347.7 billion in the first quarter of 2025. This represents more than a threefold increase in just three years, driven largely by aggressive stock sal...

Small business owners have endured a difficult four years. Before the global COVID-19 pandemic, many were benefiting from economic growth between 2017 and 2020. But when the pandemic struck, supply chains became strained and inflationary pressures intensified, even as consumer behavior shifted and work moved largely into people's homes. Consequently, the small business optimism index by the Nation...

My selection of reports to write about is getting narrowed as multiple reporting US Federal agencies have stopped releasing economic data due to the Federal government shutdown.   However, just before the government shutdown, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, (FHFA) released their housing price index for July based on home purchases with mortgages financed or bundled by federal housing agencies....

Last week we reviewed the changes in prices from manufacturers and producers.   Based on the reports from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the annual increase of the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined in August to 2.6% Year over Year (YoY) compared to July's YoY annualized rate of 3.06%.   Today, we will look further into the supply chain processes at cost changes of imports to our US producers...

To determine the future costs of consumer goods one needs to monitor the costs to producers.   If producer costs go up then it is only a matter of time until your costs increase at the retail level.   Read in this UPdate our reporting on the changes of Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) and what impact tariffs may be playing in future price increases.  

Many of you read about the tragedy in the small town of Hunt in the Texas Hill Country.   Torrential rain poured from July 4 th to the 7 th and then resumed again July 12 -13.    The Guadalupe River that runs around the town quickly rose with water levels rising over 30' in the town of Hunt.   By the time water levels finally receded, 132 fatalities were confirmed including 27 children attending C...

After the Federal Reserve raised their discount rate 500% in 2022 and 2023 taking mortgage rates up with them, housing activity has hit a brick wall.   Since mid-2023, prospective home buyers have remained on the sidelines happy to remain with their current home or as renters.   Listen in this UPdate our analysis of the housing market, its impact on the stock market, and our projections for the ba...

There is a widening range of sentiments between individuals and business owners. The question is who is right and is perception reality?   As we have mentioned in past Updates, consumers have only been this dire about the economy and their financial future in three other periods since 1978.   Listen in this UPdate, our observations of the sentiment of these two sectors of the economy and the poten...

My grandson, Anton the 5 th , and I flew our Piper Cherokee laterally across the country from southern Texas to the Annual AirVenture event in Oshkosh, Wisconsin earlier this month.   Flying through the mid-west during the summer is always a challenge with pop-up thunderstorms, tornadoes, rain, and low cloud ceilings.   The economy is starting to also show new signs of potential turbulence.   List...