Daybreak with Anton

Mixed news this week as factory orders continue to increase with one of the longest consecutive run of monthly increases since 1992.  However, the ISM Purchasing Managers Index dropped below 50 to 49 yesterday based on surveys among purchasing managers.  A reading below 50 would indicate the potential of a decline in future of new orders.  No doubt, business leaders are taking notice of rising int...

In this week's episode, Anton shares some stories in his recent months and reasons he is thankful - also, why you might be too!

Over the past 30 years of managing investor portfolios, the theater of financial markets has produced some of the most interesting and sometimes comical characters of Wall Street.  Most importantly is how we can learn from them and identify who we should listen to for advice and those simply to watch and listen.  In this Weekly Brief, we feature the fun of this theater from the opening act early e...

The US continues to improve in nearly every industry sector and none better than the record 23 consecutive monthly gain in factory and manufacturing production.  The Federal Reserve is causing a re-balance of economy with many long term benefits to investors.  Listen in this Weekly Brief our positive analysis and forecast of the stock market and economy.   

The next 60 days represent the "holiday season" and for us some of the most memorable times of the year. Read in this Brief the joys of this time of the year and what you can look forward to.

Life is like one long hike. Planning, preparation, and proper supplies will assure a successful hike as it will also in life. Listen to this issue, our experiences hiking in Maui, and the life lessons we learned along the way.     

The holiday season is near and in this Weekly Brief we review projections for holiday sales this season.  The stock market has started the fourth quarter with a bang and we discuss what will be needed to continue this rally.

History has many experiences of the Dow Jones Industrial Average selling off and entering new bear markets (down > 20%). However, the Dow Jones has always recovered from a selloff and in many situations rallied to new highs within 24 months. In 2020, the Dow Jones plummeted 37% in 40 days but was back to its previous high by November 13 or in 275 days. Listen in this Weekly Brief our review of pas...

Is the housing market on track for another bust of declining home prices and high vacancies?  Listen in this Weekly Brief our review of this week's National Association of Housing Builders and our view of the future of the residential housing market.

This week I attended the Advisor Circle Future Proof   conference in Huntington Beach, CA.  In this Brief I review comments from key speakers on the economy and stock market. Hint, they are not panicking.

The saying is the stock market rises like a staircase and drops like an elevator.  Listen in this Weekly Brief why we remain optimistic and propose patience over panic as your investment strategy.

Jerome Powell gave his speech last week and Wall Street is having a fit.  Federal Reserve is not giving them what they want!  Can the Federal Reserve successfully tame the inflation challenges of the future of our economy?  Listen in this Brief our view of Jerome Powell's speech and most importantly his missed insights that evidence points to their policy is working.

Is housing about to experience another crash like 2008?  Listen in this Brief our analysis of last week's existing and new housing sales reports and projections for the residential market. 

The stock market is in recovery, but the bond market is not.  Why are stocks going up and bonds declining in value?  Listen in this Weekly Brief as we unpack this divergence and reveal the long term risk with bonds.

There are more jobs available in the US than in recent history.  Last week the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that over 528,000 new jobs were filled the previous year month and nearly 100% higher than expectations.  Listen in this Weekly Brief our analysis of this report and the prospects for the stock market and holiday sales in the second half of this year.

More bad economic news is music to the ears of the Federal Reserve.  Listen in this Weekly Brief why this is good news not only for the Federal Reserve but investors as well.

Again the market proves that it looks to where the economy is going and not where its been. Last month there was record setting bad economic data while the SP500 had its best month of the year.  Listen in this Brief our analysis of this separation and what it might mean for your investments.   

When is bad news good?   (e.g. your distant uncle died and you have an inheritance)  The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) index dropped in July to the lowest level since 2020.  Listen in this Brief our analysis of this report and why it is good news for investors going into 2023.     

Today the Bureau of Labor Statistics released it's Consumer Price Index report that at high level appears to be on a torrid rise not seen since November 1981.  But is there more to this report and is it possible a few bad apples have outsized influence on the index?  Listen in this Brief as we break down this report and determine if there is a silver lining to be discovered   

Now that fixed mortgage rates have ballooned 100% these past several months will housing continue to boom or bust?  More importantly, what will be the impact on the future of the stock market?  Listen in this Weekly Brief our analyst of housing and stock market as the Federal Reserve battles rising inflation.

Giant slayer Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, is battling the giant of hyperinflation. Listen in this Weekly Brief our analysis of his battle strategy and our score card of his success against rising prices and the future of the stock market.

Consumer sentiment drops to the lowest level in recorded history since the 1940's.  How bad is our economy and why are people so depressed?  Listen in this Brief comparisons to previous times when consumers almost felt this bad and how the stock market performed shortly after consumer sentiment reached these lows.

Is the US in approaching a recession, already in a recession, or nearly completing a recession?  Listen in this Brief the true definition of a recession and historically how the stock market performs before, during, and after recessions.

Can investor herd mentality predict stock market bottoms and tops? Listen in this report one indicator that has consistently preceded the next stock market rally.