Confluence Podcasts

Following the Fed's decision to raise interest rates, Federal Reserve Chair Powell stated that the Fed's goal is to bring about 2% inflation while keeping unemployment down. But, achieving the first goal will almost certainly mean a weakening labor market. How do you sell the necessity of a weakening labor market to the public? The Fed appears to have a strategy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist...

It's time for the Confluence Mid-Year Geopolitical Outlook: a look at world events likely to drive markets for the rest of the year and how investments might be aligned to accommodate the dominant trends. Confluence's market strategists identify seven major events and list the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of each.

The homebuilder sector is no longer overweight in the Confluence Asset Allocation strategies for stocks. Patrick Fearon-Hernandez explains the recent downgrade of the sector and the various forces driving the housing industry as a whole.

In Confluence's geopolitical report from May 9, 2022, we projected a world devolving into two major economic and political blocs: U.S.-led and China-led. In many ways, this process has already begun and the Ukraine war is serving as an accelerant. Countries within the China-led bloc are likely to be poor and more populous but they do include many major commodity producers, which is our focus today...

As we read various comments from Federal Reserve officials, it appears the Fed is making no bones about it: the drive to bring down inflation by raising interest rates will result in some financial pain. We can't help but wonder how much financial pain for consumers will the Fed tolerate? And if the pain becomes too bad, will the Fed be able to manage it? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'...

Because of the Ukraine war, North Korea may have attracted less geopolitical scrutiny lately but its nuclear ambitions remain strong. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to discuss why North Korea continues to deserve the attention of investors. What is Kim Jong-un trying to accomplish with his periodic nuclear saber-rattling?

The Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates earlier this month may have been widely expected but the financial markets' reaction up to this point has still been highly volatile. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady joins the podcast to talk about the longer-term implications for investors.

A world with at least two sharply divided political and economic groupings seems more and more likely as globalization retreats in the face of new trade, immigration, and political barriers, and the Ukraine war appears to be accelerating the process. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses what this new world might look like and what investors should watch for, including fi...

It makes sense that as consumers our expectations for the economy influence our current spending decisions; that's why investment strategists pay so much attention to measures of consumer sentiment. Lately, two major readings of sentiment have started to diverge. Confluence Staff Economist Thomas Wash helps us make sense of these results.

Financial sanctions levied against Russia because of the Ukraine war included freezing Russia's holdings of dollars in foreign banks. This action may have a long-term impact on the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses the investment implications of the ripple effects from these sanctions.

While the U.S. Federal Reserve appears to be in the early stages of raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet with the goal of reining in inflation, something quite different is happening in Japan. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez discusses the implications of the Bank of Japan's policy and why U.S. investors should take notice.

While the Ukraine war gets the headlines, the next hotspot for confrontation between the West and Russia may be forming relatively unnoticed, at least by many of us. Confluence's analysts have been closely watching recent events in Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Staff Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to discuss why he thinks this country might become Russia's next target.

Investors looking for suitable investments in emerging markets might want to consider Latin America. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins this episode to discuss the LatAm underperformance over the past decade and the investment prospects going forward given the current boost in commodity prices.

The announcement by various countries that they'll bulk up defense spending in the wake of the Ukraine war has investment implications as well as geopolitical ones. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins today to discuss the ramifications.

Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady delves into the first update of Confluence Investment Management’s “2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails.” The focus of the discussion is on the hawkish adjustment to monetary policy and four scenarios for the path of policy.

Today, we discuss commodity prices. How does the recent price surge rate in historical terms, and is this time ominously different for consumers because of the Ukraine war? Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady gives some perspective by comparing the recent surge in prices to what we've experienced in the past.

How has the Ukraine war changed the investment environment and are these changes likely to be long-lasting or short-lived? Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady tackles these questions.

The attention we pay to inflation these days may lead us to overlook other important economic information that builds the framework for successful investment decisions. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon Hernandez joins this week's episode to discuss what we're missing by devoting so much attention to inflation.

Confluence's published geopolitical report this week looks at what appears to be an unusual economic experiment going on in Turkey: President Erdogan is refusing to allow the central bank to raise interest rates to contain rapidly rising inflation, meanwhile the Turkish currency, the lira, has been plummeting in value. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady gives his analysis of Turkey's unorthodox...

The shape of the U.S. economy is dominated these days by what appear to be pandemic-related distortions. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses how we got to where we are, what can be done about it, and where we might find the most bang right now for our investment dollars.

The latest geopolitical report from Confluence addressed some of the key questions regarding Ukraine, including the possible impact on investments. Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady and Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez join today's episode to explore possible long-term ramifications stemming from the crisis (understanding that current events are fast-moving and headlines may have chan...

Recent volatility in financial markets and persistent geopolitical risks create an opportunity for a fresh look at gold prices. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady discusses gold prices and whether our short-term outlook has changed.

While the West has been focused on the Russian threat to invade Ukraine and expand its sphere of influence there, recent developments in another former Soviet republic, Kazakhstan, have also appeared to increase Russian influence and have important implications for world energy prices. Confluence Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins today with some analysis on the situation.

Will consumers keep consuming enough to sustain economic growth if interest rates rise? The answer might begin to emerge as we explore a separate question in today's discussion with Confluence Chief Market Strategist Bill O'Grady: what exactly drives consumption? Is it a rise in real income or is it an increase in the "wealth effect"?

Chief Market Strategist Bill O’Grady joins host Phil Adler to explore the highlights from Confluence Investment Management’s “2022 Outlook: The Year of Fat Tails.” The focus of the discussion is on policy expectations and potential risks for this year.